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Electric Vehicle take-up/transition. (Read 8311 times)
lee
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #30 - Jan 7th, 2021 at 12:01pm
 
Ayn Marx wrote on Jan 7th, 2021 at 11:21am:
lee wrote on Jan 6th, 2021 at 2:24pm:
Ayn Marx wrote on Jan 6th, 2021 at 1:52pm:
Why unfortunate?



Because fusion reactors are always 40 years into the future.

Do you understand the meaning of the term ‘always’ in this context?



Yes. Since the 1970's it has always been 40 years away. Wink

20 Seconds?
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Mix_Master
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #31 - Jan 7th, 2021 at 5:58pm
 
So, as I understand it, there are a couple of things supposedly in the mix that we should be factoring in..

Fusion reaction as a form of energy, which at the moment can operate reliably for 20 seconds, and "solar flow batteries", which combine the disparate elements into a single "unit", and operate more efficiently than most commercial PV array systems on the market, but are "years away from commercialisation" (paraphrasing one of the lead designers).

So, while I realise that we "petrolheads" have been somewhat remiss in not keeping up with current developments, I would add that:

1) I was more asking about how existent and soon-to-be-available technologies might shape the move toward EV take up (and the above mooted technologies would not qualify on the "soon-to-be-available" score), and

2) If those who hold themselves out as the smartest people in the room wish to get stuck into the rest of us for "not keeping up", perhaps it might pay to take a more holistic "Enterprise Architecture" view of the problem, and lay out the entire transition "timeline", rather than providing links to as-yet unproven technologies that are literally years away from general availability in any realistic form (and likely years after EVs are "a thing").

How does the "whole picture" look? Grid, Transport, Tax revenue, Infrastructure, End-User cost comparisons (now to then) etc?

- Technology (including transition stages, costs (including shifts - tax revenue and others) etc. E.g. how does the transition between fossil fuel excise and RUCs look, for petrol vehicle "hold outs". In Victoria's latest budget, they've announced a small RUC for EV owners in the most recent budget...'cos they aren't getting fuel excise from them...and many of them, who've paid a high price for entry...aren't happy!

- Environmental footprint. E.g. Where - and how - would spent fuel rods be stored sustainably over the (very) long term, without negative environmental impacts on ground water/other environmental areas? (assuming nuclear energy becomes a bigger part of the mix). Which other "refined" materials are going to cause "end-of-life" problems in disposal/recycling etc? How does the through-life environmental cost of an EV compare to a petrol vehicle? You'd hope it would be better, but even now the benefits range from minimal to large, depending on who is conducting the study.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-clima...

(Note, in glancing through that article, I don't note decommissioning and disposal comparisons noted).

- Existing technology decommissioning (timelines/costs). As an example, there are plenty of wind turbines spinning on farmland around Australia. Who pays the cost of decommissioning them when they are at end of life? (I understand that the towers are only "guaranteed" for a certain life-span, so generally an end-of-life turbine would be decommissioned and recycled...But what of the blades?

https://www.intelligentliving.co/what-happens-to-old-wind-turbines-the-answers-n...

- Other environmental issues, surrounding through-life "costs" (decommissioning/recycling of spent <insert appropriate new tech here>)

- Sustainability. (Just how big are the world's reserves of Vanadium, as an example?)

- And so on.

Clearly it isn't as simple as "Let's stand up a couple of nuclear reactors, and that'll fix some of our energy problems into the future!" (Look at the sh*tfight that went on about where to store the spent 'rods (from Lucas Height???) as an example).

I'm all for the latest tech. (Although I'll miss the "relative" simplicity of my ICE vehicles).

But it has to be more sustainable "through-life" than what it replaces (else what's the point?) and

It has to be useable in a meaningful, practical way. Preferably sometime in my lifetime.  Cool

Apologies for the long-winded reply...
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Sprintcyclist
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #32 - Jan 8th, 2021 at 8:48pm
 
Ayn Marx wrote on Jan 6th, 2021 at 5:31pm:
Again, you petrol heads need to stop sniffing the stuff and pay attention  - -

https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-flow-battery-breakthrough-combines-pv-generati
on-and-storage-in-one-device-21647/



terrific idea.
My memory is the flow batteries last indefinitely.
A remote lighthouse in Tasmania used them for some time.

Quote:
.........   It combines the advantages of photovoltaic cells that convert sunlight into electricity – in this case, halide perovskites with an added layer of silicon – with the advantages of flow batteries, which use tanks of chemicals that can react to produce electricity and be recharged by the solar cells.

The research team says that the resulting solar flow battery has set a new record efficiency of 20 per cent, besting most commercially available silicon solar cells, and is 40 per cent more efficient than the previous record holder for solar flow batteries, also developed by the Jin lab.

“Thanks to a good match between the solar cell and the flow battery, the winning device maintained a high efficiency over hundreds of hours and hundreds of charge-discharge cycles while retaining most of its capacity,” the report said.

The challenge, now, is to transform the solar flow batteries into practical renewable-energy solutions, starting with increasing the size and scale of the current small prototypes produced by the research lab.

“Our eventual goal, if we can make this practical, is to target solar home systems,” said lead author of the study, UW–Madison graduate student Wenjie Li. “People who don’t have electrical grid access could use this device to have reliable electricity.”      ..................


https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/solar-flow-battery-breakthrough-combines-pv-...
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Ayn Marx
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #33 - Jan 9th, 2021 at 7:52am
 
Mix_Master wrote on Jan 7th, 2021 at 5:58pm:
How does the "whole picture" look? Grid, Transport, Tax revenue, Infrastructure, End-User cost comparisons (now to then) etc?
The ‘whole picture’ isn’t fully on view given the behind the scenes political games being played. To assume the roll out of any new technology will be conducted in the most practical (logical?) manner is to ignore the rampant idiocy of any number of old tech lobbyists (read contributors to political parties )

Quote:
- Environmental footprint. E.g. Where - and how - would spent fuel rods be stored sustainably over the (very) long term, without negative environmental impacts on ground water/other environmental areas? (assuming nuclear energy becomes a bigger part of the mix). Which other "refined" materials are going to cause "end-of-life" problems in disposal/recycling etc? How does the through-life environmental cost of an EV compare to a petrol vehicle? You'd hope it would be better, but even now the benefits range from minimal to large, depending on who is conducting the study.

You’ve got me confused here. Are you saying fusion generators contain fuel rods?
Also I wonder what you mean by ‘through-life environmental cost of an EV compare to a petrol vehicle’ . In making that calculation do you include the costs of global warming being accelerated by the older technology ?
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lee
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #34 - Jan 9th, 2021 at 12:26pm
 
Ayn Marx wrote on Jan 9th, 2021 at 7:52am:
In making that calculation do you include the costs of global warming being accelerated by the older technology ?



Perhaps you have proof positive of AGW. I have seen none. Models are not proof. And Hansen's description of AGW has been fasified. Maybe they need to change their description? Wink
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #35 - Jan 9th, 2021 at 4:23pm
 
Ayn Marx wrote on Jan 9th, 2021 at 7:52am:
Mix_Master wrote on Jan 7th, 2021 at 5:58pm:
How does the "whole picture" look? Grid, Transport, Tax revenue, Infrastructure, End-User cost comparisons (now to then) etc?
The ‘whole picture’ isn’t fully on view given the behind the scenes political games being played. To assume the roll out of any new technology will be conducted in the most practical (logical?) manner is to ignore the rampant idiocy of any number of old tech lobbyists (read contributors to political parties )

Quote:
- Environmental footprint. E.g. Where - and how - would spent fuel rods be stored sustainably over the (very) long term, without negative environmental impacts on ground water/other environmental areas?(assuming nuclear energy becomes a bigger part of the mix). Which other "refined" materials are going to cause "end-of-life" problems in disposal/recycling etc? How does the through-life environmental cost of an EV compare to a petrol vehicle? You'd hope it would be better, but even now the benefits range from minimal to large, depending on who is conducting the study.

You’ve got me confused here. Are you saying fusion generators contain fuel rods?
Also I wonder what you mean by ‘through-life environmental cost of an EV compare to a petrol vehicle’ . In making that calculation do you include the costs of global warming being accelerated by the older technology ?


No, I was referring to nuclear energy, as highlighted. Have they done away with using fuel rods in nuclear reactors these days? (I MUST be out of touch!)

On the second question, I was referring to the fact that there are a number of differing "studies" - even those about the through-life emissions of ICE vehicles over EVs - which muddies the waters, somewhat.
Additionally, I was referring to the environmental "cost" of decommissioning/disposal of end-of-life vehicles and components (ICE vs EV), as that data didn't seem to be included in the long-winded paper I linked.

Something which quantifies the overall emissions from manufacture, through-life use (including, as that study has attempted, the move from emissions-intensive energy sources to less-intensive/renewable sources), and ultimately the decommissioning/disposal "cost".
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #36 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 11:36am
 
https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/hitech/toyota-to-showcase-new-solid-...

There are signs things are looking up for 2021.

COVID-19 stalled a groundbreaking advancements in the development of electric cars, Toyota’s solid-state battery.

The Japanese giant was due to unveil a working prototype of its new electric-car tech at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, which was cancelled due to the pandemic. But according to Asian business publication, the Nikkei, this is now due some next year.

A solid state battery is a huge advancement over the current lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars.

Toyota is preparing to show off game-changing electric car tech in 2021.

In simple terms, a solid-state battery is smaller, faster to charge, more energy dense and less likely to catch fire than current batteries. The main reason is because the battery uses a solid electrolyte instead of a liquid or gel.

Estimates put range at more than 800km and up to 1000km, with the ability to charge in under 10 minutes.

These advancements would enable electric cars to be more practical than most petrol- or diesel-powered cars.

The batteries provide other benefits such as a roomier cabin and greater efficiency due to a lower vehicle weight.

Toyota is aiming for its next-generation batteries to hold about 90 per cent of their charge for up to 30 years, much longer than lithium-ion examples.
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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)
 
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #37 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:11pm
 
"t is worth noting, though, that solid state batteries are known to not perform too well in cold temperatures and their long-term durability was also brought into question in the past. Toyota has not specifically mentioned these two aspects in any of its press releases on the matter, but these have certainly been at least two of the challenges the manufacturer faced in creating solid state batteries designed for longer term use."

https://insideevs.com/news/460244/toyota-solid-state-battery-detailed/
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #38 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:27pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:11pm:
"t is worth noting, though, that solid state batteries are known to not perform too well in cold temperatures and their long-term durability was also brought into question in the past. Toyota has not specifically mentioned these two aspects in any of its press releases on the matter, but these have certainly been at least two of the challenges the manufacturer faced in creating solid state batteries designed for longer term use."

https://insideevs.com/news/460244/toyota-solid-state-battery-detailed/



Good thing they've been working on it for 10 years eh contrarian?
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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

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lee
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #39 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:46pm
 
Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:27pm:
Good thing they've been working on it for 10 years eh contrarian?



And they haven't said they have fixed the problem. Roll Eyes
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #40 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:47pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:46pm:
Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:27pm:
Good thing they've been working on it for 10 years eh contrarian?



And they haven't said they have fixed the problem. Roll Eyes




They haven't said they haven't fixed it either.
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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #41 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:48pm
 
Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:47pm:
They haven't said they haven't fixed it either.



Exactly. And that's is what you would think they would do IF they have fixed it. Roll Eyes
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Reply #42 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:49pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:48pm:
Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:47pm:
They haven't said they haven't fixed it either.



Exactly. And that's is what you would think they would do IF they have fixed it. Roll Eyes




Actually I'm more thinking the fact they are confident enough to release a prototype model this year is a decent sign that at the very least they are ready to start testing it.
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Re: Electric Vehicle take-up/transition.
Reply #43 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 2:00pm
 
Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:49pm:
Actually I'm more thinking the fact they are confident enough to release a prototype model this year is a decent sign that at the very least they are ready to start testing it.


With or without the fix?
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Reply #44 - Feb 2nd, 2021 at 2:03pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 2:00pm:
Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 2nd, 2021 at 1:49pm:
Actually I'm more thinking the fact they are confident enough to release a prototype model this year is a decent sign that at the very least they are ready to start testing it.


With or without the fix?



Jesus christ. With.


Seriously you would have questioned the invention of the wheel.
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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

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