lee wrote on Apr 19^th, 2019 at 7:52pm:


We are going through a cooling period and it is still getting warmer, what do you think happens when we go into a warming period ?

Dnarever wrote on Apr 19^th, 2019 at 8:59pm:



ohh long term predictions. exactly what the IPCC says can't be done.

freediver wrote on Apr 19^th, 2019 at 9:11pm:


Do you think it might be useful to post it, FD? Lee and I might like to have a little look-see.

freediver wrote on Apr 19^th, 2019 at 9:11pm:



Oh you mean the new IPCC special report that used RCP 8.5 as its basis? The RCP 8.5 that even climate scientists say isn't feasible? That report? Those projections?

Or do you mean where they actually stated what has happened?

About extreme weather -

"Floods

"There was low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and magnitude of floods. WGII AR5 also concluded that there is no evidence that surface water and groundwater drought
frequency has changed over the last few decades, although impacts of drought have increased mostly owing to increased water demand (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014)"

Drought

"The IPCC AR5 assessed that there was low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at the global scale, but that there was high confidence in observed trends in some regions of the world, including drought increases in the Mediterranean and West Africa and drought decreases in central North America and northwest Australia (Hartmann et al., 2013; Stocker et al., 2013). AR5 assessed that there was low confidence in the attribution of global changes in droughts and did not provide assessments for the attribution of regional changes in droughts (Bindoff et al., 2013a).

The recent literature does not suggest that the SREX and AR5 assessment of drought trends should be revised, except in the Mediterranean region. "

Cyclones

"Numerous studies leading up to and after AR5 have reported a decreasing trend in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy (Emanuel, 2005; Elsner et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2010; Holland and Bruyère, 2014; Klotzbach and Landsea, 2015; Walsh et al., 2016). A theoretical physical basis for such a decrease to occur under global warming was recently provided by Kang and Elsner (2015). However, using a relatively short (20 year) and relatively homogeneous remotely sensed record, Klotzbach (2006) reported no significant trends in global cyclonic activity, consistent with more recent findings of Holland and Bruyère (2014). Such contradictions, in combination with the fact that the almost fourdecade-long period of remotely sensed observations remains relatively short to distinguish anthropogenically induced trends from decadal and multi-decadal variability, implies that there is only low confidencev regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades."

Precipitation

"Observed global changes in the water cycle, including precipitation, are more uncertain than observed changes in temperature (Hartmann et al., 2013; Stocker et al., 2013). There is high confidence that mean precipitation over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1951 (Hartmann et al., 2013). For other latitudinal zones, area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low confidence because of poor data quality, incomplete data or disagreement amongst available estimates (Hartmann et al., 2013). There is, in particular, low confidence regarding observed trends in precipitation in monsoon regions, according to the SREX report (Seneviratne et al., 2012) and AR5 (Hartmann et al., 2013), as well as more recent publications (Singh et al., 2014; Taylor et al., 2017; Bichet and Diedhiou, 2018; see Supplementary Material 3.SM.2)."

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/

SR5 also had projections for wildfires but no reference for observations. So I found a scientific paper on wildfires from 2017.

QUOTE
Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.


http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356

But tell us what you think the report says if you think it says something different.

lee wrote on Apr 19^th, 2019 at 9:34pm:


Do I?

Which part do you disagree with?

lee wrote on Apr 19^th, 2019 at 9:34pm:


Which part do you disagree with, dear?

Paki gob on a stick wrote on Apr 20^th, 2019 at 12:18pm:



You agree with yourself? too funny.