Australian Politics Forum - CO2 levels during coronavirus

Robot

Senior Member

Offline

Conspirator

Posts: 441
Engadine Maccas

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #45 - May 17^th, 2020 at 6:24pm

Robot wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 6:03pm:

lee wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 5:49pm:

Robot wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 5:30pm:

So to get 1.2°C, you just picked a number between 0.7°C and 5.3°C?

So you can't read? We knew that. Mauritsen suggest 0.7C, Lewis and Curry 2018 suggest a median of 1.66C.

So to get 1.2°C, you just picked a number between 0.7°C and 1.66°C?

Very rigor! Much science! Wow!

It gets better: Mauritsen et al doesn't even mention 0.7°C (0.7 K), and definitely doesn't suggest that's a good value for climate sensitivity.

lee wants a refutation for numbers he made up out of thin air!

Grin

Back to top

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21502
Gender: male

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #46 - May 17^th, 2020 at 6:25pm

Robot wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 6:24pm:

It gets better: Mauritsen et al doesn't even mention 0.7°C (0.7 K), and definitely doesn't suggest that's a good value for climate sensitivity.

Seems I was wrong. Mmauritsen was one of your outliers (that is in favour of a high ECS).

"An additional issue regarding climate model derived values of ECS was raised by recent paper by Mauritsen et al. (2019). An intermediate version of the MPI-ESM1.2 global climate model produced an ECS value of ~ 7 oC, caused by the parameterization of low-level clouds in the tropics. Since this model version produced substantially more warming than observed in the historical period, this model version was rejected and model cloud parameters were adjusted to target a value of ECS closer to 3 oC, resulting in a final ECS value of 2.77 oC. The strategy employed by Mauritsen et al. (2019) raises the issue as to what extent climate model-derived ECS values are truly emergent, rather than a result of tuning that explicitly or implicitly considers the value of ECS and the match of the model simulations with the historical temperature record."

Source Curry.

BTW- you still haven't got back to us on YOUR view of ECS.

Back to top

« Last Edit: May 17^th, 2020 at 6:51pm by lee »

IP Logged

Captain Nemo

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16703
Melbourne
Gender: male

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #47 - May 17^th, 2020 at 9:51pm

lee wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 6:09pm:

Captain Nemo wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 5:58pm:

If you bothered to look at the ice-core data chart, you would notice that increases up to 300 PPM during the last 800,000 years took about 100,000 years to occur.

You didn't remember the losses due to smoothing. Grin

And still nothing about the "1,000 times faster". Wink

If you bothered to look at the ice-core data chart, you would notice that increases up to 300 PPM during the last 800,000 years took about 100,000 years to occur.

We have increased to over 400 PPM in only about 100 years.

Spot the unnatural spike:

https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-car...

Hint:

If it took about 100,000 years to rise by 100 PMM in the pre Industrial days ....

and it took about 100 years post Industrial days to rise a further 100 PPM ....

100,000 divided by 100 = 1,000

i.e.

1,000 times faster.

Not too difficult a calculation for you? Wink

Back to top

Fire the LIAR in 2028!

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21502
Gender: male

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #48 - May 17^th, 2020 at 11:00pm

Captain Nemo wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 9:51pm:

If you bothered to look at the ice-core data chart, you would notice that increases up to 300 PPM during the last 800,000 years took about 100,000 years to occur.

ohh repetition. Grin

Remember what was said about the smoothing?

"Ice core records are commonly used to infer information about past variability of CO2 fluxes. Because of processes involved in enclosing this air in ice, ice core records are a smoothed representation of the actual past atmospheric variations. As such, there is a limit to how much information ice core measurements can contain about flux variability on short timescales. "

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003562

Captain Nemo wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 9:51pm:

If it took about 100,000 years to rise by 100 PMM in the pre Industrial days ....

and it took about 100 years post Industrial days to rise a further 100 PPM ....

100,000 divided by 100 = 1,000

That is only the ice core data with its attendant smoothing. Plant stomata datasuggests otherwise. Wink

Fig 2.

Reconstructed CO2 concentrations for the time interval between ≈8,700 and ≈6,800 calendar years B.P. based on CO2 extracted from air in Antarctic ice of Taylor Dome (left curve; ref. 2; raw data available via www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/taylor/taylor.html) and SI data for fossil B. pendula and B. pubescens from Lake Lille Gribsø, Denmark (right curve; see Table 1). The arrows indicate accelerator mass spectrometry 14C chronologies used for temporal control (Table 1). The shaded time interval corresponds to the 8.2-ka-B.P. cooling event (3–12). Quantification of mean CO2 concentrations is based on the rate of historical CO2 responsiveness of the European tree birches (Fig. 1); ±1σ CO2 estimates are derived from the standard deviation of the SI mean values.

Source: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2002 September 17: 99 (19) 12011 -12014.

See what happens to the raw data when you smooth it compared to other proxy data.? That is why it is called "smoothing". Wink

Back to top

« Last Edit: May 17^th, 2020 at 11:05pm by lee »

IP Logged

Robot

Senior Member

Offline

Conspirator

Posts: 441
Engadine Maccas

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #49 - May 18^th, 2020 at 12:00pm

lee wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 6:25pm:

Robot wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 6:24pm:

It gets better: Mauritsen et al doesn't even mention 0.7°C (0.7 K), and definitely doesn't suggest that's a good value for climate sensitivity.

Seems I was wrong. Mmauritsen was one of your outliers (that is in favour of a high ECS).

LOL. This comment aged like milk:

lee wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 5:49pm:

So you can't read? We knew that. Mauritsen suggest 0.7C, Lewis and Curry 2018 suggest a median of 1.66C.

And also this:

lee wrote on May 17^th, 2020 at 4:33pm:

New research suggests the figure should be 1.2C per doubling.

"New research suggests" meaning "I split the difference between two numbers I cherry-picked".

Back to top

IP Logged

Captain Nemo Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16703 Melbourne Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #50 - May 18^th, 2020 at 12:04pm
Back to top	Fire the LIAR in 2028! IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21502
Gender: male

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #51 - May 18^th, 2020 at 2:22pm

Robot wrote on May 18^th, 2020 at 12:00pm:

lee wrote Yesterday at 2:33pm:
New research suggests the figure should be 1.2C per doubling.

"New research suggests" meaning "I split the difference between two numbers I cherry-picked".

You could of course always read up for yourself. But as per updated from Scarfetta et al (2017)

or this -

"Smirnov, 2017 (~0.4°C)
It is shown that infrared emission of the atmosphere is determined mostly by atmospheric water. One can separate the flux of outgoing infrared radiation of the atmosphere from that towards the Earth. The fluxes due to rotation-vibration transitions of atmospheric CO2 molecules are evaluated. Doubling of the concentration of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere that is expected over 130 years leads to an increase of the average Earth temperature by (0.4±0.2) K mostly due to the flux towards the Earth if other atmospheric parameters are not varied."

https://notrickszone.com/2017/10/16/recent-co2-climate-sensitivity-estimates-con...

Enjoy. Wink

Back to top

IP Logged

John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #52 - May 18^th, 2020 at 3:16pm Captain Nemo wrote on May 18^th, 2020 at 12:04pm: https://i.imgur.com/ujup186.jpg
Back to top	Our esteemed leader: I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus. IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #53 - May 18^th, 2020 at 3:21pm Wow Poor widdle johnny seeks attention. and gets some but not a lot.
Back to top	IP Logged

John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #54 - May 18^th, 2020 at 3:22pm laughing at you is not attention seeking dopey
Back to top	Our esteemed leader: I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus. IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21502 Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #55 - May 18^th, 2020 at 3:47pm poor widdle johnny attention seeking troll doll.
Back to top	IP Logged

Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 60422 Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #56 - Nov 17^th, 2023 at 10:15am This wasn't in the modelling......
Back to top	Estragon: I can’t go on like this. Vladimir: That’s what you think. IP Logged

Jasin

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 57956
Gender: male

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #57 - Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:28pm

Don't forget.
When CO2 rose way higher in bygone ages.
It happened a lot slower which allowed much life to adapt with it, though much probably didn't as well.

Difference now is that CO2 has increased in a way that it is the fastest increase on record. Never in hundreds of millions of years has CO2 accelerated than by humans.

Pollutions pumped into the atmosphere and environment.
80% less forestation to deal with the CO2 (probably less oxygen now with a 80/20 nitrogen/oxygen change from 70/21 decades ago). Less plankton in the polluted oceans, etc, etc, etc.

Polluting the world and destroying all that keeps it in check with it.

Luckily the world has more intelligent beings in its pocket. Probably still in 'larvae' stage, looks like the Dolphins and Orca will evolve to replace the hapless Apes come Humans who do themselves in.

Back to top

AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21502
Gender: male

Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus
Reply #58 - Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:42pm

Jasin wrote on Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:28pm:

It happened a lot slower which allowed much life to adapt with it, though much probably didn't as well.

So seeing as submariners can work at 10,000 CO2 ppm, How much do we need to adapt to 420? Roll Eyes

Jasin wrote on Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:28pm:

Difference now is that CO2 has increased in a way that it is the fastest increase on record.

The proxy data doesn't support that. CO2 increased dramatically just before the ice age onsets. Roll Eyes

Jasin wrote on Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:28pm:

80% less forestation to deal with the CO2 (probably less oxygen now with a 80/20 nitrogen/oxygen change from 70/21 decades ago).

Do you have a link for that?

Jasin wrote on Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:28pm:

Less plankton in the polluted oceans, etc, etc, etc.

Phyoplankton is doing really well in the polar regions. But perhaps you can cite a paper? Roll Eyes

Jasin wrote on Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:28pm:

Probably still in 'larvae' stage, looks like the Dolphins and Orca will evolve to replace the hapless Apes come Humans who do themselves in.

Not if they keep sonar bombing for offshore windfarms. Roll Eyes

Back to top

IP Logged

Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 57956 Gender:	Re: CO2 levels during coronavirus Reply #59 - Nov 17^th, 2023 at 7:43pm You're so pedantic Lee.
Back to top	AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY. IP Logged