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ScoMo still shines in Newspoll (Read 313 times)
juliar
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ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Nov 11th, 2019 at 6:18am
 
While the Albo Schoolboy runs around in ever decreasing circles trying to copy his HERO ScoMo the people's Messiah ScoMo advances steadily fixed on the Big Picture.



Labor closes gap while Coalition support falls in latest Newspoll
5:47am, Nov 11, 2019 Updated: 3m ago

...
The latest Newspoll shows Labor and the Coalition on equal footing. Photo: The New Daily

The coalition and Labor are even in two-party preferred terms for the first time since the May election, the latest Newspoll shows.

The turnaround in the ALP’s fortunes comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison battles the drought and a faltering economy.

The government’s billion-dollar drought relief package has not tracked through to the voters interviewed for the latest Newspoll in The Australian on Monday.

Labor’s primary vote has risen two points to 35 per cent despite a damning review into its loss in the May election while the Coalition’s dropped to 40 per cent, down two points.

Mr Morrison remains the preferred prime minister. Net satisfaction with his leadership was at 46 per cent despite a slight dip while Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s rating rose to 42 per cent.

The Newspoll, based on 1682 voters across the country in urban and regional areas, was carried out between Thursday and Sunday.

The slide in support for the Coalition puts the warring sides at almost equal footing.

The Australian reports Pauline Hanson’s One Nation continued to gain traction, lifting its primary vote to 7 per cent after posting an election result of 3.1 per cent.

Albanese looks to 2022 election
Meanwhile Anthony Albanese is confident he will still be leading the Labor party at the 2022 election, but insists it is not about being popular now.

On Thursday, Labor party elders Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill released their long-awaited review of what turned out to be a disastrous 2019 election campaign.

It criticised the campaign for scaring voters with enormous and complex policies while lacking a strategy and failing to address then-leader Bill Shorten’s unpopularity.

Asked on ABC television’s Insiders program on Sunday whether the leadership of the Labor party will now be judged through the prism of unpopularity and whether he is prepared to be cast aside by his colleagues, Mr Albanese said: “I will lead Labor to the next election.”

...
Anthony Albanese says he will lead Labor to the next election. Photo: AAP

He said he has already outlined a clear strategy for the future of the party, but has yet to rule out controversial policies like ditching franking credits, which proved a concern for some pensioners, even when they didn’t own shares.

“We’ll make our announcement under our terms with proper processes,” Mr Albanese said.

He said as the next election is not until 2022, the party will outline in an “orderly and strategic way” the policies it will and won’t do in plenty of time before then.

“One of the things that we should have learnt from the last term was that elections aren’t decided two years out,” he said.

“We were ahead in every Newspoll, in every published poll in the two years leading up to the election, except for when it counted – on the Saturday in the polling booth.”

“My task isn’t to be ahead now, it’s to be ahead when people go to the polling booths in 2022, or the end of 2021.”

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/11/11/newspoll-labor-improvement/
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« Last Edit: Nov 11th, 2019 at 9:26am by juliar »  
 
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juliar
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #1 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 6:40am
 
Isn't it shocking how the Libs manipulated Newspoll to trip up clunky old Shady Shorten into thinking he had a Snowball's hope in Hell of "winning" the election????


...
Newspoll leads Shady Shorty up the garden path.





The Newspoll error that threw off Labor's campaign
Samantha Maiden / The New Daily Friday November 08, 2019

Australia’s most trusted election oracle, Newspoll, had a “persistent technical error” which may have falsely built expectations that Labor was the unbackable favourite to win the May election, according to the ALP review.

...
Bill Shorten concedes defeat on election night with his wife Chloe. Photo: AAP/David Crosling

The shock admission, contained in the post-mortem of the election defeat, has raised the possibility that a prime minister – Malcolm Turnbull – may have been dumped when Labor was not in an election-winning position, and also that the ALP was lulled into complacency by opinion polls.

It also raises the surprising reason why Newspoll consistently overestimated the Labor primary vote, which relates to voters not being able to remember who they voted for at the 2016 election, possibly as a result of the revolving-door sequence of prime ministers. This then flowed though the methodology of the polls and coloured assumptions about preferences.

Fittingly for Melbourne Cup week, the ALP review, authored by former SA Premier Jay Weatherill and ex-frontbencher Craig Emerson, begins with a racing analogy.

“After a patchy early career, Winx never lost a Saturday race. But Labor did. In fact, Labor has failed to win a majority in the House of Representatives in eight out of its last nine starts,” it says.

“What went wrong this time? Was Labor burdened with the weight of Clive Palmer’s advertising in its saddlebags?

“Was it nobbled by a dishonest social media scare campaign? Did News Corp cause Labor interference in running?

“Was it the jockey’s fault? Or had Labor become complacent in the lead-up to race day? Our review seeks to answer these questions.”

The report finds three main reasons for the shock loss: Bill Shorten’s lack of popularity with voters, poor strategy, and a failure to adapt to the Coalition’s leadership change to Scott Morrison.

The report also calls for spending caps to stop billionaire businessmen, including Clive Palmer, spending $70 million on advertising – a push the billionaire has dismissed as the excuse of a bad loser.

But one of the report’s most surprising findings relates to the public polling, including Newspoll, that built massive expectations of a Labor victory.

As The New Daily revealed in the aftermath of the election, YouGov-Galaxy, the pollsters behind Newspoll published by The Australian and the Galaxy polls published by the tabloids, was also secretly contracted to conduct the ALP nightly tracking polls.

Messed-up methodology
But the report finds the published polls came with a major error for years.

“First, the publicly available Newspoll figures had a persistent technical error that overstated Labor’s primary vote, understated the Coalition’s primary vote and consistently suggested Labor was in an election-winning position,” the report states.

“Seat polling conducted during the campaign also provided early warning Labor’s campaign was struggling, particularly in regional Queensland.

“However, the persistent Labor lead in Newspoll (and other published polls) created a mindset dominated by high expectations of a Labor victory, and this affected the Party’s ability to process research findings that ran counter to this.”

The report notes that the failure to predict the result of the 2019 federal election has shaken public confidence in the polling industry.

And it also finds the ALP’s $500,000 nightly campaign tracking poll of 20 marginal seats also got “the result of the election wrong”, although it was closer to the mark than Newspoll.

But the reason for the technical error was primarily attributable to a reliance on 2016 “vote recall” as a weighting factor.

“That is, YouGov’s surveys included a question asking participants who they voted for at the previous federal election in 2016, and the final report produced from each survey was weighted to adjust for any over- or under-representation of past support based on the actual results in 2016.

“While that has been a tool used by quantitative researchers for decades, it served to both overestimate the Labor primary vote and the preference flow to Labor.

“The use of vote recall is a standard practice, but on this occasion created significant error in the outcome. This error was perpetuated amongst a range of published polling at the same time.”

Bizarrely, the pollsters argued one of the reasons voters could not remember who they voted for related to the revolving door of prime ministers.

https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2019/11/08/the-newspoll-error-that-threw-of...
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« Last Edit: Nov 11th, 2019 at 9:27am by juliar »  
 
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juliar
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #2 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 6:51am
 
The Labor Obituary after the NEXT ELECTION ?


This spat between right and left ALP figures demonstrates that the deeper reason for Labor's current era of failure is ideological.

Doug Cameron's attack is personal, emotive and unhelpful. He still lives in the generation of pommie shop stewards who came to these shores to radicalise our union movement.

But that type of activism appeals to a smaller and smaller segment of Australia. Certainly not the "working class", whatever that term means.

One foresees a plethora of ALP committees being founded to determine who in fact is "working class". Goodness, yet another platform for factional warfare.

The ALP must define what it is and who it is appealing to. Inevitably that means appealing to the center of the Australian electorate. A shift to the right if you will.

Moreover, the ALP must accept that we live in a great country and we get better by degrees. Our freedoms must be celebrated and improved on.

The quiet Australian senses that there are destructive forces in the modern ALP that would willingly take those freedoms away. Whilst that impression remains, Labor is doomed.
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cods
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #3 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 7:02am
 
“We were ahead in every Newspoll, in every published poll in the two years leading up to the election, except for when it counted – on the Saturday in the polling booth.”


Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


aint it the truth!
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juliar
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #4 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 7:37am
 
Labor's motto, "You can fool SOME of the people SOME of the time but not ALL the people ALL the time".

Meanwhile Albo is busily trying to copy ScoMo's winning policies.

Wonder what the Greenies think of Albo ?   A Traitor to Socialism ?   A Disciple of the People's Messiah ScoMo ?

And sad Shady Shorten constantly tastes acid bubbling up from his stomach. Will Chloe divorce him now she won't become the PM's wife ?

...
Erk! Burp!  Where's the Alka Salzer ?

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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #5 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:01am
 
Nobody believes in polls anymore so maybe Morriscum should be worried.

Especially if they are produced by Murdochs trashy papers

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If a man says he will fix it.   

He will !

There is no need to remind him every six months !
 
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #6 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:03am
 
Polls mean nothing this far away from an election apart from the political parties going into a panic and sacking their leaders when they go south....What is telling is that anyone would take any notice of these polls that have been found to be wrong on most occasions???

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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cods
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #7 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:16am
 
Redmond Neck wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:01am:
Nobody believes in polls anymore so maybe Morriscum should be worried.

Especially if they are produced by Murdochs trashy papers


Grin Grin Grin

you weren't saying that back in May.. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes 

I bet the Guardian  had labor at the top of the polls...
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Re: Scummo's govt still sucks in Newspoll
Reply #8 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:20am
 
juliar wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 6:18am:
While the Albo Schoolboy runs around in ever decreasing circles trying to copy his HERO ScoMo the people's messiah ScoMo advances steadily fixed on the Big Picture.

Why do your ridiculous editorials always use BASELESS LIES to avoid telling the TRUTH?

The truth is shown by simply reporting the numbers. (Source: GhostWhoVotes, italics are mine and added for completeness)

Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (-2) ALP 35 (+2) GRN 12 (-1) ON 7 (+1) [Others 6 (0)]
Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (-1) ALP 50 (+1)
Morrison: Approve 46 (-1) Disapprove 43 (-2) [Don't know 11 (+3)]
Albanese: Approve 42 (+5) Disapprove 37 (-7) [Don't know 21 (+2)]
Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-1) Albanese 32 (0) [Don't know 22 (+1)]

The only two significant changes with these numbers are:
* This poll has a 2PP that is 50-50 after three consecutive 51-49 polls. This is within MoE.
* The more significant change is a big shift in Albanese's approval ratings. Net satisfaction (approval minus disapproval) has shifted 12 points in his favour. It's not common for any poll to have a shift as big as this. It's well outside the MoE and is therefore a real shift.

Honest reporting would have highlighted this significant shift in Albanese's satisfaction ratings, not concealed it with pointless mumblings about Scummo and baseless lies.
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #9 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:43am
 
It is a (sad) fact that a leader who cannot score over 40% as preferred PM will not win a Federal election in this country.

This figure is a worry for Albo:

Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-1) Albanese 32 (0) [Don't know 22 (+1)]
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #10 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:53am
 
.. but not in OzPoll where it truly counts....  (ta-daaaa)...
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Bam
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #11 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 9:00am
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:43am:
It is a (sad) fact that a leader who cannot score over 40% as preferred PM will not win a Federal election in this country.

This figure is a worry for Albo:

Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-1) Albanese 32 (0) [Don't know 22 (+1)]


Relax. It's still 24 to 30 months until the next Federal election. Plenty of time for Albo to destroy Scummo.

This is the more significant figure in the latest poll because it is a large movement:

Albanese: Approve 42 (+5) Disapprove 37 (-7) [Don't know 21 (+2)]

This often foreshadows a shift in preferred PM.

It's also a historical fact that no government that has presided over a poor economy or is implicated in corruption has lasted in office for long. Scummo is leading a government that is doing both.
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juliar
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #12 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 9:24am
 
Poor upset Bammy is trying to read the tea leaves.

It was only a few months ago the Lefties were basking in the sunshine of the manipulated Newspoll figures thinking that Shady Shorty would be up there destroying Australia.

And I said all along that the Libs were fudging the Newspoll figures to give Labor a false sense of confidence and that it would suddenly show the true figures just before the election and I was Oh so correct.

It was obvious that Labor with skunky Shorty up there did not have a snowball's hope in Hell of winning especially with cunning ad man ScoMo project managing the wooing of selling the only safe govt to the voters and was he successful.

Labor's idiotic Greeny junk policies guaranteed they would fail. Recall RESTART the BOATS!!! Thieve from the retirees and pensioners, send power prices thru the roof, wreck the housing market, close down all industry in Australia, etc.

The Chinese must have been disappointed after they gave all those Chinese bribes to Labor with Mr Been's help.
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #13 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 9:35am
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 8:43am:
It is a (sad) fact that a leader who cannot score over 40% as preferred PM will not win a Federal election in this country.

This figure is a worry for Albo:

Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-1) Albanese 32 (0) [Don't know 22 (+1)]



Labor will never win a general election with Albo as leader.

They're too stupid to understand that, though.

If they don't change leaders before the next election, they're going to hand Morrison - the most corrupt & inept leader in this nation's history - another undeserved victory.

They could be in opposition for quite some time if they don't wake up to themselves.

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juliar
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Re: ScoMo still shines in Newspoll
Reply #14 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 9:53am
 
Silly old Gweggy crawls out with the usual FAKE NEWS. Is Gweggy going senile ?
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