Australian Politics Forum - There will be no new little ice age

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	There will be no new little ice age Sep 14^th, 2019 at 5:34pm Despite the lies of grifters like Dubyne, Ice Age Farmer, DiamondDave et al. Certainly, temperatures have not declined, the temperature map looks like this:
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: There will be no new little ice age Reply #1 - Sep 14^th, 2019 at 5:36pm Some blue, but a lot of orange and red. Only a complete idiot or a liar like Dubyne would say it is cooling! Seasonal distribution is interesting:
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Jovial Monk

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #2 - Sep 14^th, 2019 at 5:51pm

Quite a departure from previous years, eh? Dubyne’s lie about record low Arctic ice, huge Greenland melt and European heatwave “not being significant” was obviously made out of desperation, like the thermometer on a roof that turned out to be a rain gauge Grin

That sets the scene—a rapidly warming world. Some cold but a lot more heat.

Dubyne says the sun has gone into a GSM in 2016. Nonsense, of course—cycle 24 has given way to Cycle 25.

Say the sun DID go into a GSM, as it likely will some time, then what, new ice age finally?

Not, I am sorry to say. There is one fact Dubyne is keeping quiet about:

A GSM cools by 0.2°C, no more!

Evidence:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321495462_The_Maunder_minimum_and_the_L...

and

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251431109_Are_the_most_recent_estimates...

AGW is warming the globe by 0.205°C per decade (RSS) while the least of the temperature series, the most adjusted/manipulated, least robust series UAH6 has AGW warming by 0.15°C per decade. So what the hell is a GSM supposed to do? Pretty much nothing is what it will do, no ice age. BTW Milankovitch Cycle is cooling us—yet we warm.

Talking about ice ages, regular major ice ages (due to Milankovitch forcings) only started once CO2 fell below 300ppm. CO2 is now 415ppm and, unfortunately, rising. So there will not be any more regular major ice ages. IMHO anyhow, not that I will live to find out

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: There will be no new little ice age Reply #3 - Sep 14^th, 2019 at 6:15pm You mean even the Southern Hemisphere, where Phil Jones, CRU, has said was mostly made up until the 1950's. Although others say the 70's. perhaps the ten stations in the Southern hemisphere making up the entire longterm temperature?
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lee

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #4 - Sep 14^th, 2019 at 6:17pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 14^th, 2019 at 5:51pm:

AGW is warming the globe by 0.205°C per decade (RSS) while the least of the temperature series, the most adjusted/manipulated, least robust series UAH6 has AGW warming by 0.15°C per decade.

well it has been warming. How much is anyone's guess as well as to any AGW component. Wink

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Jovial Monk

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #5 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 7:48am

We have been warming, lee, well spotted!

That warming has taken place despite natural factors cooling us:

1. Milankovitch cycles are cooling us

2. The sun has been a bit quiet since the 1980s and that is cooling us.

3. Anthropogenic aerosols are cooling us

Despite that, we have warmed 1°C since 1880, 0.6°C of that since 1990—AGW is responsible for > 100% of observed warming.

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lee

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #6 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:06pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 7:48am:

We have been warming, lee, well spotted!

That is what we are told.

And yet there is nothing except models that show it as catastrophic, even harmful.

Even Arheenius said that and you like to quote him:

"” He eventually made the suggestion that an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide due to the burning of fossil fuels could be beneficial, making the Earth's climates “more equable,” "

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Arrhenius/arrhenius_3.php

But then of course we know the Southern Hemisphere wasn't well represented in GLOBAL temperature until sometime after the 1950's. As per Phil Jones CRU.

Now that is an enormous bias right there, that you want everyone to ignore. So the models up until the 1960's are really useless for determining How much, if at all. And even now there is a huge bias where there are no temperature stations - Australia, Africa and Asia come to mind as well as the poles.

And the sea ice has not disappeared yet. Wink

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Bobby.

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #7 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:14pm

lee wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:06pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 7:48am:

We have been warming, lee, well spotted!

That is what we are told.

And yet there is nothing except models that show it as catastrophic, even harmful.

Even Arheenius said that and you like to quote him:

"” He eventually made the suggestion that an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide due to the burning of fossil fuels could be beneficial, making the Earth's climates “more equable,” "

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Arrhenius/arrhenius_3.php

But then of course we know the Southern Hemisphere wasn't well represented in GLOBAL temperature until sometime after the 1950's. As per Phil Jones CRU.

Now that is an enormous bias right there, that you want everyone to ignore. So the models up until the 1960's are really useless for determining How much, if at all. And even now there is a huge bias where there are no temperature stations - Australia, Africa and Asia come to mind as well as the poles.

And the sea ice has not disappeared yet. Wink

Monk always ignores all those predictions of no ice at the North Pole. Embarrassed

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: There will be no new little ice age Reply #8 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:31pm Arrhenius (note the spelling, dickhead) was writing in 1896 and 1905, he may have thought a bit of warming good and who could blame him? Did he foresee the vast industrialisation, the huge fleets of motor vehicles, the huge increase in population etc etc? You are a fool, lee. Booby you are too bloody gullible.
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lee

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #9 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 1:46pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:31pm:

Arrhenius (note the spelling, dickhead) was writing in 1896 and 1905, he may have thought a bit of warming good and who could blame him?

Poor petal Can't even ignore a typo. Grin

And that bit of warming hasn't. Wink

The catastrophe is always somewhat in the future.

Even Arctic ice isn't following the meme. Or sea level rise.

"A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000."

https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

Not even close.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:31pm:

Did he foresee the vast industrialisation, the huge fleets of motor vehicles, the huge increase in population etc etc?

No but he also didn't foresee the anticipated problem of horse poo drowning cities worldwide.

"By the late 1800s, large cities all around the world were “drowning in horse manure”. In order for these cities to function, they were dependent on thousands of horses for the transport of both people and goods."

https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis...

But as far as I can tell no-one aid he was a seer. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 12:31pm:

ou are a fool, lee. Booby you are too bloody gullible.

Poor petal. Al lot of failed climate prophesies and he calls everyone else gullible. Grin

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Jovial Monk

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #10 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 1:50pm

Globe is warming

The warming is faster than happened naturally in the past.

Ice is melting—Antarctica is melting half a century earlier than was thought likely—a failed prediction there but not in a good way.

The hockey stick is alive and well with just short of 50 confirmations of the rapid warming forming the blade of the hockey stick.

The models are doing well;

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: There will be no new little ice age Reply #11 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 1:52pm Put this into context—temperatures over the past 8000 years. We see the cooling due Milankovitch cycles starting, then the rapid warming from burning of fossil fuels:
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: There will be no new little ice age Reply #12 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 1:54pm You can see how much we have warmed since the LIA, how can a new LIA happen? A GSM only cools by 0.2°C tops! https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321495462_The_Maunder_minimum_and_the_L... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251431109_Are_the_most_recent_estimates...
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lee

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Re: There will be no new little ice age
Reply #13 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 2:59pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 1:50pm:

The warming is faster than happened naturally in the past.

Really over the top hubris. We don't know. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2019 at 1:50pm:

Ice is melting—Antarctica is melting half a century earlier than was thought likely—a failed prediction there but not in a good way.

You mean climate phenomena are not dynamic? It should have been getting colder? It should have precipitated more?

Aah Marcott 2013. Realising that the Southern Hemisphere is largely made up.

"Tom,
The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue of many more drifters providing measurements over the last 5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where we didn't have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is very little ship data there.

Whatever causes the divergence in your plot it is down to the ocean.

You could try doing an additional plot. Download from the CRU web site the series for SH land. It doesn't matter if is from CRUTEM3 or CRUTEM3v (the former would be better). If that still has the divergence, then it is the oceans causing the problem. What you're seeing is too rapid to be real.

Cheers
Phil"

part of email 2729

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2729.txt

So about 80% of the SH was poorly sampled. and yet you want to hang your hat on those predictions.

But i digress -What was it he said on that interview on real climate? -

"Yet if we plot temperature anomaly data since 1880 at the same locations as the 73 sites used in our paleotemperature study, we see that the data are scattered and the trend is unclear. "

But if they mash merged together they find what they want.

" Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions."

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/

Can I have veg with that? Grin

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: There will be no new little ice age Reply #14 - Sep 15^th, 2019 at 3:17pm Yes, “petal” we should be cooling right now: 1. Milankovitch cycle reducing TSI a bit 2. Sun went a bit quiet in 1980s 3. Man made aerosols are cooling us Yet we are warming, warming more rapidly than the globe has warmed in the past.
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