Australian Politics Forum - Global warming is real

lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #30 - Mar 9^th, 2018 at 12:47pm

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 12:06am:

UnSubRocky wrote on Mar 8^th, 2018 at 8:30pm:

So, whenever it rains, that is an irrefutable piece of evidence that global warming is real? Which means that it never rained when mankind were all hunter gatherers?

A simulation was conducted where 100 nuclear missiles were detonated undersea in the Indian Ocean. The water boiled. The water evaporated. The country of Australia was inundated with heavy rainfall for weeks. The Northern Hemisphere, however, received record cold, as the environmental equilibrium kicked in to keep the average temperature stable.

During an Australian heatwave, there is a cold snap somewhere in the northern hemisphere. And vice versa. Showing photos of people getting rained on is no indication that the average Earth temperature is going up.

The correlation between rainfall and global warming is quite low. Rather look towards Antarctica and the rising seas levels, melting icecaps and the abnormal weather patterns world wide. Unfortunately global warming is now based on empirical and factual data and refutability is something quite difficult.

Could you please provide this empirical and factual data? Note: not climate models. Not Global temperatures as the records don't go back that far. There is no possible way that with the error bars on earlier data they can reconstruct temperatures backwards to 1880 to within 2 decimal places.

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goldkam

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #31 - Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm

lee wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 12:47pm:

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 12:06am:

UnSubRocky wrote on Mar 8^th, 2018 at 8:30pm:

So, whenever it rains, that is an irrefutable piece of evidence that global warming is real? Which means that it never rained when mankind were all hunter gatherers?

A simulation was conducted where 100 nuclear missiles were detonated undersea in the Indian Ocean. The water boiled. The water evaporated. The country of Australia was inundated with heavy rainfall for weeks. The Northern Hemisphere, however, received record cold, as the environmental equilibrium kicked in to keep the average temperature stable.

During an Australian heatwave, there is a cold snap somewhere in the northern hemisphere. And vice versa. Showing photos of people getting rained on is no indication that the average Earth temperature is going up.

The correlation between rainfall and global warming is quite low. Rather look towards Antarctica and the rising seas levels, melting icecaps and the abnormal weather patterns world wide. Unfortunately global warming is now based on empirical and factual data and refutability is something quite difficult.

Could you please provide this empirical and factual data? Note: not climate models. Not Global temperatures as the records don't go back that far. There is no possible way that with the error bars on earlier data they can reconstruct temperatures backwards to 1880 to within 2 decimal places.

1. 2010 Anderegg study found that 97-98% of climate researchers publishing most actively in their field agree that human activity is primarily responsible for global climate change and global warming

2. Since 1751 about 337 billion metric tons of CO2 have been released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production, increasing atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level of about 280 ppm (parts per million), to a high of 400 ppm in 2013. Methane, which is increasing in the atmosphere due to agriculture and fossil fuel production, traps 84 times as much heat as CO2 for the first 20 years it is in the atmosphere, and is responsible for about one-fifth of global warming since 1750. Nitrous oxide, primarily released through agricultural practices, traps 300 times as much heat as CO2.

Each of these statistics is provided by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, "Global Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions," cdiac.ornl.gov, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, "Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," ersl.noaa.gov and Bobby Magill, "Arctic Methane Emissions 'Certain to Trigger Warming,'" climatecentral.org, May 1, 2014

3. Research by NASA has found over the past 650,000 years, atmospheric CO2 levels did not rise above 300 ppm until the mid-20th century. Atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen from about 317 ppm in 1958 to 400 ppm in 2013. According to Rob Monroe, "What Does This Number Mean?," scripps.ucsd.edu, by 2040 these rates will be at 450ppm. According to the Scripps Institution of Oceanology, the "extreme speed at which carbon dioxide concentrations are increasing is unprecedented. An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events."

4. CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels such as oil and coal can be differentiated in the atmosphere from natural CO2 due to its specific isotopic ratio. [101] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 20th century measurements of CO2 isotope ratios in the atmosphere confirm that rising CO2 levels are the result of human activity, not natural processes such as ocean outgassing, volcanic activity, or release from other "carbon sinks."

5. From 1953–2006, Arctic sea ice declined 7.8% per decade. Between 1979 and 2006, the decline was 9.1% each decade. As of 2014, Arctic sea ice was being lost at a rate of 13.3% per decade. No other conclusions can be drawn other than global warming

6. A 2006 study found that "significant acceleration" of sea-level rise occurred from 1870 to 2004. Between 1961 and 2003 global sea levels rose 8 inches

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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #32 - Mar 9^th, 2018 at 6:10pm Moved: 'Global warming is real' This Topic has been moved to Relationships by Bobby What a joke this forum is
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lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #33 - Mar 9^th, 2018 at 7:40pm

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

1. 2010 Anderegg study found that 97-98% of climate researchers publishing most actively in their field agree that human activity is primarily responsible for global climate change and global warming

So what did they say was the causal mechanism?

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

2. Since 1751 about 337 billion metric tons of CO2 have been released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production, increasing atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level of about 280 ppm (parts per million), to a high of 400 ppm in 2013. Methane, which is increasing in the atmosphere due to agriculture and fossil fuel production, traps 84 times as much heat as CO2 for the first 20 years it is in the atmosphere, and is responsible for about one-fifth of global warming since 1750. Nitrous oxide, primarily released through agricultural practices, traps 300 times as much heat as CO2.

So what was the historic level of CO2 during the Holocene Optimum, which was arguably warmer than today? How did they determine that? With the scales used it just wouldn't be there, except if it lasted more than 50,000 years.

methane - never affected life in the Holocene maximum. Why should it be scary this time? I have heard it's 20 times worse.

Nitrous Oxide - 325ppb? That is not scary. 3/5 of 5/8 of FA.

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

3. Research by NASA has found over the past 650,000 years, atmospheric CO2 levels did not rise above 300 ppm until the mid-20th century.

Now that would be citing ice cores which have data problems. Although spotty, plant stomata suggest that is incorrect.

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

4. CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels such as oil and coal can be differentiated in the atmosphere from natural CO2 due to its specific isotopic ratio. [101] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 20th century measurements of CO2 isotope ratios in the atmosphere confirm that rising CO2 levels are the result of human activity, not natural processes such as ocean outgassing, volcanic activity, or release from other "carbon sinks."

Once this anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed by the carbon sinks and then re-emitted can they differentiate between the carbon sinks CO2 and anthro CO2?

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

5. From 1953–2006, Arctic sea ice declined 7.8% per decade. Between 1979 and 2006, the decline was 9.1% each decade. As of 2014, Arctic sea ice was being lost at a rate of 13.3% per decade. No other conclusions can be drawn other than global warming

" The first confirmed complete passage, from west to east, was made by the Finnish-Swedish explorer Adolf Erik Nordenskiöld, in 1878."

WIki or you can search Encyclopedia Britannica.

So it seems we have had global warming in the past.

1979 was a high for Arctic ice.

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

6. A 2006 study found that "significant acceleration" of sea-level rise occurred from 1870 to 2004. Between 1961 and 2003 global sea levels rose 8 inches

Don't you think coming out of the LIA sea levels should NOT have increased?

"Seas around the world have risen an average of nearly 3 inches since 1992, with some locations rising more than 9 inches due to natural variation, according to the latest satellite measurements from NASA and its partners."

https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/risingseas

So how much is natural variation and how much AGW?
With satellite altimeter accuracy between 34mm and 42mm. how do they get that?

How long have they had GPS on tide gauges to see which tide gauges are subject to subsidence?

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« Last Edit: Mar 10^th, 2018 at 12:55pm by lee »

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President Elect, The Mechanic Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17501 Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #34 - Mar 9^th, 2018 at 8:15pm TheFunPolice wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 6:10pm: Moved: 'Global warming is real' This Topic has been moved to Relationships by Bobby What a joke this forum is stay off the crack mate... you seem disorientated...
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Bobby.

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #35 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 7:06am

TheFunPolice wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 6:10pm:

Moved: 'Global warming is real'
This Topic has been moved to Relationships by Bobby

What a joke this forum is Grin

DRAH,
Aussie agreed to take this thread to relationships because it
had turned into page after page of personal attacks.

It was later split & the part before the personal attacks started
was put back here by Setanta.

You can see the entire original thread here:
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1520387777/30

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Ajax

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #36 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 8:34am

Agnes wrote on Mar 7^th, 2018 at 11:58am:

---

Seriously Agnes......???....how could you fall for the oligarchies tricks.....???

It's snake oil i'tellsya

Lets look at history,

First lets get one thing straight, the Earth has been warming since the little ice age lets not make any mistakes about that, even the IPCC agreed on this once upon a time until they replaced it with the infamous hockey stick.

The warming is NOT because of mans emissions of CO2 this is the crux of the argument.

In other words don't piss down my back and tell me its raining.

Second the only unequivocal evidence given to us that the Earth is warming due to the correlation between CO2 and temperature is in the computer models of the IPCC and associates.

When they first made this prediction about CO2/TEMP (computer models 1990) they said that in the tropopause (about 12 klms straight up) around the equator there was a hot spot.

So some scientists turned to weather balloons and satellite data, they found no hot spot.

So the alarmists started to say that this missing heat has gone into the oceans.

Since 2002 we have had the ARGO[1] a system of buoys that take data including temperature about the oceans all around the world they can dive down to 2000 metres.

The Argo system failed to detect any out of the ordinary heating in the oceans, so the alarmists started saying "Oh but its gone down into the deep part of the ocean, still the ARGO system would have detected this yes , no...???... I think so.

Quote:

[1]Argo is a global array of 3,800 free-drifting profiling floats that measures the temperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/

Now do you honestly think if we were in danger of extinction because of AGW the best and most effective way that we could save ourselves is to set up and ETS on wall street or a carbon tax so you and I pay the oligarchy for the air we breathe for ever.

In 1990 the computer models ran too hot they projected a warming of

1990 IPCC computer model = 2.78°C warming by the end of this century

Empirical data the last 27 years = 1.01°C warming by the end of this century.

But you never hear about this on the news do you...???
All they tell you we have to spend billions on an ETS on wall street to TRY and keep the temperature down to UNDER 2°C warming by end of this century, well this is going to happen all by itself, no need for you and I to spend money on it.

About never having a higher amount of CO2 in our atmosphere, well that is just plain lying, today we have just over 400ppm (parts per million) in our atmosphere BUT we have had up to 7000ppm in our atmosphere and life thrived with the greening of the Earth.

Now look at what temperature is doing compared to the CO2 levels.

About the sea rises, yes they have been rising since the Little Ice Age (LIA) its only natural.

But here is a man who has studied the oceans all his life see what he says,

http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerintervie...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5067351/Rise-of...

Maybe when the Earth warms we do get volatile weather which we are finding out about right now, but the Earth has warmed and cooled many times nothing new in this as I'm sure you already know.

You should check out the climate gate emails that is warmist scientists emailing each other on how to get the plebs in on the action,

http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/climatega...

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« Last Edit: Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:11am by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Ajax

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #37 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 8:41am

Is there any correlation between CO2 and temperature?

(1).....On a small time scale
(NO)
, (11,000 years)

Showing from 200 to 11000 years ago, the subsequent graph is based on ice core data, readily visible in files hosted on the servers of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):GISP 2 and EPICA Dome C

Graph-1

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-histor...

(2).....On a medium time scale YES???, (450,000 years)

(NO)
, It appears so because of the scale we are zoomed out at.

WARNING !
This is the scale that most global warming sites use to scare the unsuspecting.

Over the past few hundred thousand years of ice core data, a “medium” time scale in this sense, CO2 superficially appears to change in step with temperature if a graph is so zoomed out as to not show sub-millennial time
scales well

Graph-2

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-histor...

A record of temperature and atmospheric CO2 over the past 400,000 years is preserved in the Vostok Ice Core and is shown in the figure on the right.

It can be seen that there have been a series of large fluctuations in temperature (the Ice Ages), accompanied by large changes in atmospheric CO2.

It is thought that these large temperature fluctuations are triggered by Milankovitch cycles - variations in the earth's orbit that change the amount of energy from the sun that reaches us.

However, on their own, these cycles are not enough to explain the changes in temperature.

The full explanation seems to be that the small change in temperature caused by the changing orbit are amplified by natural processes on earth. These cause CO2 to be released from the oceans and the biosphere, causing an increased greenhouse effect.

This is described more fully in this article from the New Scientist (see also Shackleton 2000). For more details on the timing of changes in CO2 and temperature, click on the figure.

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/paleoclimate.htm#100,000years

(3).....On a long time scale
(NO)
, (millions of years)

Graph-3

[url]http://s155.n46.n171.n68.static.myhostcenter.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdf[/urll]

(4).....Lately

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« Last Edit: Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:04am by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #38 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:05am September 1957 - arctic decreases by 40% May 1947 - arctic melting http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/22429983?searchTerm=climate%20change&sea... November 1922 - arctic melting http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
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Agnes Gold Member Offline fish dinner Posts: 6081 Bedford Park rnd	Re: Global warming is real Reply #39 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 12:46pm well that was a very reassuring read Ajax- and it would seem on the face of what you have posted here a naturally re- occurring cycle in earths weather patterns- I will examine your links more fully- thank you Ajax-
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Ajax

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #40 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 1:58pm

Agnes wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 12:46pm:

well that was a very reassuring read Ajax- and it would seem on the face of what you have posted here a naturally re- occurring cycle in earths weather patterns- I will examine your links more fully- thank you Ajax-

Agnes climate change has been with us since day dot and will be with us until the Earth is no more.

AGW on the other hand is a Rothschild's fairy tale...... Cheesy

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Crocodile Hunter: Origins Posts: 26437 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #41 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 4:26pm I agree that humans are responsible for global climate change. But the only real change is occurring in and around the towns and cities. Most of the globe is untouched by climate change. But there is barely anything signifying a global increase in temperature.
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Johnnie

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #42 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 6:38pm

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

lee wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 12:47pm:

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 12:06am:

UnSubRocky wrote on Mar 8^th, 2018 at 8:30pm:

So, whenever it rains, that is an irrefutable piece of evidence that global warming is real? Which means that it never rained when mankind were all hunter gatherers?

A simulation was conducted where 100 nuclear missiles were detonated undersea in the Indian Ocean. The water boiled. The water evaporated. The country of Australia was inundated with heavy rainfall for weeks. The Northern Hemisphere, however, received record cold, as the environmental equilibrium kicked in to keep the average temperature stable.

During an Australian heatwave, there is a cold snap somewhere in the northern hemisphere. And vice versa. Showing photos of people getting rained on is no indication that the average Earth temperature is going up.

The correlation between rainfall and global warming is quite low. Rather look towards Antarctica and the rising seas levels, melting icecaps and the abnormal weather patterns world wide. Unfortunately global warming is now based on empirical and factual data and refutability is something quite difficult.

Could you please provide this empirical and factual data? Note: not climate models. Not Global temperatures as the records don't go back that far. There is no possible way that with the error bars on earlier data they can reconstruct temperatures backwards to 1880 to within 2 decimal places.

1. 2010 Anderegg study found that 97-98% of climate researchers publishing most actively in their field agree that human activity is primarily responsible for global climate change and global warming

2. Since 1751 about 337 billion metric tons of CO2 have been released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production, increasing atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level of about 280 ppm (parts per million), to a high of 400 ppm in 2013. Methane, which is increasing in the atmosphere due to agriculture and fossil fuel production, traps 84 times as much heat as CO2 for the first 20 years it is in the atmosphere, and is responsible for about one-fifth of global warming since 1750. Nitrous oxide, primarily released through agricultural practices, traps 300 times as much heat as CO2.

Each of these statistics is provided by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, "Global Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions," cdiac.ornl.gov, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, "Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," ersl.noaa.gov and Bobby Magill, "Arctic Methane Emissions 'Certain to Trigger Warming,'" climatecentral.org, May 1, 2014

3. Research by NASA has found over the past 650,000 years, atmospheric CO2 levels did not rise above 300 ppm until the mid-20th century. Atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen from about 317 ppm in 1958 to 400 ppm in 2013. According to Rob Monroe, "What Does This Number Mean?," scripps.ucsd.edu, by 2040 these rates will be at 450ppm. According to the Scripps Institution of Oceanology, the "extreme speed at which carbon dioxide concentrations are increasing is unprecedented. An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events."

4. CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels such as oil and coal can be differentiated in the atmosphere from natural CO2 due to its specific isotopic ratio. [101] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 20th century measurements of CO2 isotope ratios in the atmosphere confirm that rising CO2 levels are the result of human activity, not natural processes such as ocean outgassing, volcanic activity, or release from other "carbon sinks."

5. From 1953–2006, Arctic sea ice declined 7.8% per decade. Between 1979 and 2006, the decline was 9.1% each decade. As of 2014, Arctic sea ice was being lost at a rate of 13.3% per decade. No other conclusions can be drawn other than global warming

6. A 2006 study found that "significant acceleration" of sea-level rise occurred from 1870 to 2004. Between 1961 and 2003 global sea levels rose 8 inches

If an 8 inch rise in sea levels in such a short period of time is not a wake up call then nothing is, did Noah leave any specifications on Ark construction.

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Bobby.

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #43 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 6:57pm

Superfreeze Sea Life Mass Die Off, Buried Sheep Rescue Underway & Crop Losses Spread (548)

After the European Superfreeze which the media termed The Beast from the East to avoid talking about Arctic temperatures in March in Southern Europe, the animal die offs are staggering along with the crops. Hundreds of thousands of starfish wash up with countless other types of sea life, sheep buried in snow drifts are being rescued by the tens of thousands as thousands already froze. Vegetable production from Spain to New Zealand being lost due to freak strong weather events sweeping the globe.

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lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #44 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 7:50pm

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

. Between 1961 and 2003 global sea levels rose 8 inches

According to NOAA the global sea level height in 1961 was -60.25mm. In 2003 it was +15.72mm. (Using a zero point of 2001-2). That gives a SLR of 75.97mm. Which is about 3 inches

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-globa...

you can check the interactive graph for the data.

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