Australian Politics Forum - Global warming is real

Johnnie

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #45 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 8:19pm

lee wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 7:50pm:

goldkam wrote on Mar 9^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:

. Between 1961 and 2003 global sea levels rose 8 inches

According to NOAA the global sea level height in 1961 was -60.25mm. In 2003 it was +15.72mm. (Using a zero point of 2001-2). That gives a SLR of 75.97mm. Which is about 3 inches

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-globa...

you can check the interactive graph for the data.

Why do you think that is, expansion of the oceans or the melting of ice, either way that is an incredible amount of sea level rise in 50yrs, what sort of volume increase of the oceans result in a 3 inch rise, and what flow on effects could result, its not good to change the planet quickly, everything needs time to adapt, 50yrs ffs.

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lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #46 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:05pm

Johnnie wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 8:19pm:

Why do you think that is, expansion of the oceans or the melting of ice, either way that is an incredible amount of sea level rise in 50yrs, what sort of volume increase of the oceans result in a 3 inch rise, and what flow on effects could result, its not good to change the planet quickly, everything needs time to adapt, 50yrs ffs.

It is of course an estimate. There are no measurements. You could always try to be better than King Knut. He knew he didn't control the tides.

So we have land subsidence which will affect tide gauge data, as well as isostatic rebound.

Then of course in the real world we have storms, waves, swells, as well as tides and atmospheric pressure differences.

I don't live at the beach, but those living within 5 feet of the storm surge line generally can afford to move. Wink

An interesting read about the Isle of The Dead and its Mean Sea Level data.

https://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/

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« Last Edit: Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:15pm by lee »

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16422 Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #47 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:08pm *
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Johnnie

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #48 - Mar 10^th, 2018 at 10:29pm

lee wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 9:05pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 8:19pm:

Why do you think that is, expansion of the oceans or the melting of ice, either way that is an incredible amount of sea level rise in 50yrs, what sort of volume increase of the oceans result in a 3 inch rise, and what flow on effects could result, its not good to change the planet quickly, everything needs time to adapt, 50yrs ffs.

It is of course an estimate. There are no measurements. You could always try to be better than King Knut. He knew he didn't control the tides.

So we have land subsidence which will affect tide gauge data, as well as isostatic rebound.

Then of course in the real world we have storms, waves, swells, as well as tides and atmospheric pressure differences.

I don't live at the beach, but those living within 5 feet of the storm surge line generally can afford to move. Wink

An interesting read about the Isle of The Dead and its Mean Sea Level data.

https://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/

You present figures and then dispute them. Ask those on low lying islands why the ocean is encroaching on them.

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President Elect, The Mechanic

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #49 - Mar 11^th, 2018 at 8:44am

Quote:

108 degrees today? If not, small Montana city sets coldest February record

Unless a dramatic heat wave strikes Wednesday, a Montana city about 300 miles east of the state capital will end the month with record-setting cold.

Feb. 28 would have to be 108 degrees to ward off the record for coldest February in Miles City, Mont., since records have been kept.

The National Weather Service office in Montana's largest city, Billings, called it: "Not going to happen."

A 108-degree day in February would shatter records of its own, of course. The warmest ever recorded in Miles City on a Feb. 28 was 69 degrees in 1992.

The Miles City forecast was for high of 30 degrees. The normal is 40 degrees.

This February, the city has averaged 5.3 degrees until the penultimate day of the month. The previous coldest February was 7.1 degrees in 1949, and a normal February, while not balmy, is 24.4 degrees.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/02/28/coldest-february-miles...

meanwhile..on the other side of the planet..

Quote:

Towns record coldest February day
By Gail Burke
Updated 3 Feb 2018, 12:04pm

After weeks of hot weather, many towns in south-east Queensland have experienced their coldest February day on record with temperatures resembling winter maximums.

On Friday, Applethorpe, near the New South Wales border, reached a maximum of 15 degrees Celsius while Toowoomba climbed to just 15.4C, Warwick 16.9C, and Kingaroy 17.7C.

Bureau of Meteorology Forecaster Michael Paech said Archerfield, west of Brisbane, managed only 21C and Coolangatta on the Gold Coast 21.6C.

"These are the coldest February days that we've ever experienced in those places and some of those records date back quite some time," he said.

"The Stanthorpe record dates back to 1938 when we started taking records there and Toowoomba, that record goes back to 1931."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-03/queensland-weather-towns-record-coldest-fe...

Dutch News...

Quote:

Wednesday is the coldest day of winter and coldest Feb 28 on record Society February 28, 2018

Snow covers the beach on Schiermonnikoog. Photo: Manon Bruininga / Hollandse Hoogte

With the temperature set to remain below zero all day, and to hit -2 degrees at the Bilt weather station near Hilversum, today is the coldest of the winter, weather bureaus said on Wednesday.

The temperature is expected to remain around -4 degrees in the north east and -1 degree in the south, and will be the coldest February 28 on record. The KNMI weather bureau issued a code yellow weather warning for the entire country apart from the far south after light overnight snow.

That snow has caused difficult conditions on some roads, the ANWB motoring organisation said. In particular, traffic was difficult on the Amsterdam ring road, despite the half term holidays.

There will be an other heavy frost on Wednesday night, when it will be as low as -8 degrees in central parts and -11 degrees on the German border.

Read more at DutchNews.nl: Wednesday is the coldest day of winter and coldest Feb 28 on record http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2018/02/wednesday-is-the-coldest-day-of-wi...

Digging out your animals from the snow... your livelihood... YOUR LIFE

Farmers lose their stock then have to pay to get rid of them...

water Temperatures drop so much hundreds of thousands of starfish dead..

Flash Floodings....

Food Prices increasing...

Millions of people lose power all over the world due to record low temperatures..

Dead Manatees from cold stress?? Undecided

Volcanoes Erupting..

California Passes New Law Banning Cow Farts...

wait what?

and you think the people from the Global Warming Church aren't crazy?? Cheesy

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Q

The STORM has arrived
Every Dog Has Its Day...
Dark to Light.
Sheep no more.

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lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #50 - Mar 11^th, 2018 at 11:59am

Johnnie wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 10:29pm:

You present figures and then dispute them. Ask those on low lying islands why the ocean is encroaching on them.

I am giving you what passes for the facts in this debate.

One claim was for an 8 inch rise in 42 years. I showed by reference to NOAA, that that was wrong, it was 3 inches according to them. That doesn't make their claim right or wrong.

I pointed you to John Daly's piece which " suggests a sea level rise since 1888 of only 2½cm". That is one inch up to the same 2003.

So an estimated SLR of 3 inches or one of 1 inch. Remember what I said about difficulties with measuring SLR. Isle of the Dead is one reading, it is not global; would it be different elsewhere?

So which low lying islands are drowning? Tide gauge data suggests they are not.

The Maldives - Built an international airport. Now they are expanding on that? Who spends money like that on a drowning island?

They may subject to storm surge, erosion, many things.

"Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02954-1

Now remember "remotely sensed data" is satellite.
The latest altimeters have an accuracy of 34mm, 10 times the rise suggested by NOAA. Then they have to account for wave, swell, and storm surge height.

I will leave you to sort that mess out.

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Johnnie

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #51 - Mar 11^th, 2018 at 12:59pm

lee wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 11:59am:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 10^th, 2018 at 10:29pm:

You present figures and then dispute them. Ask those on low lying islands why the ocean is encroaching on them.

I am giving you what passes for the facts in this debate.

One claim was for an 8 inch rise in 42 years. I showed by reference to NOAA, that that was wrong, it was 3 inches according to them. That doesn't make their claim right or wrong.

I pointed you to John Daly's piece which " suggests a sea level rise since 1888 of only 2½cm". That is one inch up to the same 2003.

So an estimated SLR of 3 inches or one of 1 inch. Remember what I said about difficulties with measuring SLR. Isle of the Dead is one reading, it is not global; would it be different elsewhere?

So which low lying islands are drowning? Tide gauge data suggests they are not.

The Maldives - Built an international airport. Now they are expanding on that? Who spends money like that on a drowning island?

They may subject to storm surge, erosion, many things.

"Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02954-1

Now remember "remotely sensed data" is satellite.
The latest altimeters have an accuracy of 34mm, 10 times the rise suggested by NOAA. Then they have to account for wave, swell, and storm surge height.

I will leave you to sort that mess out.

NASA calculates that the average sea level rise is 3.41mm per year! incredible,, due to ocean expansion as it warms, and the melting of the polar ice caps. NOAA, your reference also claims sea levels are rising.
The Marshall Islanders are already in trouble, they will be needing snorkels before long.

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lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #52 - Mar 11^th, 2018 at 4:43pm

Johnnie wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 12:59pm:

NASA calculates that the average sea level rise is 3.41mm per year! incredible,, due to ocean expansion as it warms, and the melting of the polar ice caps. NOAA, your reference also claims sea levels are rising.

Yes. Now how do they "calculate" sea level rise?

Johnnie wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 12:59pm:

The Marshall Islanders are already in trouble, they will be needing snorkels before long.

Perhaps you have a peer-reviewed paper to link?

"Destruction of Coral Reefs. A major concern for both Government and the general public is mining on the reef and lagoon shorelines, contributing to rapid erosion, especially in various parts of Majuro and Ebeye. Moreover, the sand and gravel aggregates in these areas are non-renewable and there is increasing awareness that the mining of these resources is at present unsustainable."

http://www.sprep.org/Marshall-Islands/marshall-islands-pein

Mining? That can't help. The coral would provide some protection to erosion.

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« Last Edit: Mar 11^th, 2018 at 4:51pm by lee »

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Bobby.

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #53 - Mar 17^th, 2018 at 7:49pm

Here is some evidence that global warming is real:

( Don't ever let Monk tell you that I'm biased)

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/fire-risks-as-victorians-warned-of-severe-wea...

Fire risks as Victorians warned of severe weather conditions

Saturday March 17, 2018 - 15:47 EDT

The Seaview fire at McDonald's track is currently about 254 hectares in size. - ABC licensed

It's hot and windy across Victoria and if a fire starts up, it will be very hard to stop, warns Victoria's Emergency Management Commissioner.

It's been 44 days since there has been any significant rain across the state and temperatures are forecast to be
10 degrees Celsius above normal for this time of year.

Temperatures are tipped to be in the mid-30s in the south and in the high 30s along the Murray River in the north.

However the main reason for concern is the winds, with the gusting 60-70 kilometres per hour, with peak gusts of 90 to 100 kilometres per hour.

"If a fire was to start and we weren't able to get it in that initial attack, it will run and it will get away from the fire suppression efforts fairly easily," Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley told 774 ABC Melbourne.

"It's dry, it's hot, it's windy. The winds will remain strong into the night and overnight and [on] Sunday morning we'll wake up with temperatures of 28C in the morning.

"That's a concern if we've got fires running and hot conditions overnight and the wind remains."

There have already been 31 minor fires across the state which were quickly brought under control.

The key areas of concern are from Mildura to Warrnambool and Melbourne to Echuca.

Then on Sunday morning a strong change will move through.

"That'll bring strong westerly wind gusts throughout the day, particularly for southern and coastal areas where we'll see wind gusts up around 90-100kph and probably reaching up to 110kph about the coast," said Rod Dickson, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.

in eastern Victoria all week, and Mr Lapsley said he was confident they will be able to hold the fire.

The fire is currently about 254 hectares in size and is burning close to the communities of Allambee, Cloverlea, Yarragon South and Ellinbank.

"That was a fire we found extremely difficult to control because it was so dry and it was spotting through the forest areas," Mr Lapsley said.

"I'm very confident we'll hold it."

Extra firefighting staff are on standby and total fire bans are in place for all regions except the Gippsland and north-east fire districts.

- ABC

© ABC 2018

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Johnnie

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #54 - Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm

lee wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 4:43pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 12:59pm:

NASA calculates that the average sea level rise is 3.41mm per year! incredible,, due to ocean expansion as it warms, and the melting of the polar ice caps. NOAA, your reference also claims sea levels are rising.

Yes. Now how do they "calculate" sea level rise?

Johnnie wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 12:59pm:

The Marshall Islanders are already in trouble, they will be needing snorkels before long.

Perhaps you have a peer-reviewed paper to link?

"Destruction of Coral Reefs. A major concern for both Government and the general public is mining on the reef and lagoon shorelines, contributing to rapid erosion, especially in various parts of Majuro and Ebeye. Moreover, the sand and gravel aggregates in these areas are non-renewable and there is increasing awareness that the mining of these resources is at present unsustainable."

http://www.sprep.org/Marshall-Islands/marshall-islands-pein

Mining? That can't help. The coral would provide some protection to erosion.

Is there any "peer-reviewed paper" to show NASA is wrong, you are once again are contradicting yourself by claiming a sea level rise and providing statistics to support that but only seem to contest the rate.
Sure all those points you bring up regarding the Marshall Islands would have an effect on any coastal area, but if you agree on any ocean level rise then low lying islands will be the first to go under.
The thermal mass of the ocean will increase relative to global warming at an exponential rate until it boils, its not like it cools back down again at night.

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lee

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #55 - Mar 17^th, 2018 at 9:31pm

Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm:

Is there any "peer-reviewed paper" to show NASA is wrong, you are once again are contradicting yourself by claiming a sea level rise and providing statistics to support that but only seem to contest the rate.

It is generally considered that the Sea Level has been rising since the end of the LIA.

Obviously you either don't read well or don't comprehend.
lee wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 11:59am:

One claim was for an 8 inch rise in 42 years. I showed by reference to NOAA, that that was wrong, it was 3 inches according to them. That doesn't make their claim right or wrong.

It applies to NASA as well.

I am merely showing the state of claimed sea level rise from 2.5cm (1inch) to a claimed 8 inches. They can't all be right. I will let you choose what you want to believe.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm:

Sure all those points you bring up regarding the Marshall Islands would have an effect on any coastal area, but if you agree on any ocean level rise then low lying islands will be the first to go under.

Nope. That would be true only if there was sea level rise and islands weren't growing. Of course mining your own islands is detrimental, but you can't lay the blame for that on sea level rise.

You still haven't got back to me on how NASA ESTIMATES sea level rise.

Please feel free to enlighten me.
Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm:

The thermal mass of the ocean will increase relative to global warming at an exponential rate until it boils, its not like it cools back down again at night.

What complete and utter garbage. Until the oceans boil? At what temperature is that?

And yeah the oceans cool at night. Didn't you know that? So what heats the ocean? CO2? Sunlight?

Below is a graph from Colorado University, very similar to NOAA and NASA. The question is - with ever increasing CO2 and the last few year "the hottest evah"; why is the sea level rise tracking sideways?

for the Marshall Islands

It has the following text below - "The relative sea level trend is 2.2 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.82 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1946 to 2015 which is equivalent to a change of 0.72 feet in 100 years. "

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=1820000

That hardly seems like accelerating sea level rise to me.

Please try science instead of emotive claptrap.

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« Last Edit: Mar 17^th, 2018 at 9:36pm by lee »

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Johnnie

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Re: Global warming is real
Reply #56 - Mar 17^th, 2018 at 9:45pm

lee wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 9:31pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm:

Is there any "peer-reviewed paper" to show NASA is wrong, you are once again are contradicting yourself by claiming a sea level rise and providing statistics to support that but only seem to contest the rate.

It is generally considered that the Sea Level has been rising since the end of the LIA.

Obviously you either don't read well or don't comprehend.
lee wrote on Mar 11^th, 2018 at 11:59am:

One claim was for an 8 inch rise in 42 years. I showed by reference to NOAA, that that was wrong, it was 3 inches according to them. That doesn't make their claim right or wrong.

It applies to NASA as well.

I am merely showing the state of claimed sea level rise from 2.5cm (1inch) to a claimed 8 inches. They can't all be right. I will let you choose what you want to believe.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm:

Sure all those points you bring up regarding the Marshall Islands would have an effect on any coastal area, but if you agree on any ocean level rise then low lying islands will be the first to go under.

Nope. That would be true only if there was sea level rise and islands weren't growing. Of course mining your own islands is detrimental, but you can't lay the blame for that on sea level rise.

You still haven't got back to me on how NASA ESTIMATES sea level rise.

Please feel free to enlighten me.
Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 8:31pm:

The thermal mass of the ocean will increase relative to global warming at an exponential rate until it boils, its not like it cools back down again at night.

What complete and utter garbage. Until the oceans boil? At what temperature is that?

And yeah the oceans cool at night. Didn't you know that? So what heats the ocean? CO2? Sunlight?

Below is a graph from Colorado University, very similar to NOAA and NASA. The question is - with ever increasing CO2 and the last few year "the hottest evah"; why is the sea level rise tracking sideways?

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2018_rel1/sl_ns_global.png

for the Marshall Islands

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/plots/1820000_meantrend.png
It has the following text below - "The relative sea level trend is 2.2 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.82 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1946 to 2015 which is equivalent to a change of 0.72 feet in 100 years. "

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=1820000

That hardly seems like accelerating sea level rise to me.

Please try science instead of emotive claptrap.

As the thermal mass increases so does the time to dissipate it, night and day remains constant.
We agree ocean levels are rising? I would say exponentially, but that is hardly going to show on graphs or pi charts in the short term, and of course the oceans would boil dry given that, eventually.

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 95426 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #57 - Mar 17^th, 2018 at 10:06pm The oceans will only boil as the sun becomes hotter with age & starts to turn into a red giant. Don't worry - that's billions of years away yet.
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #58 - Mar 18^th, 2018 at 8:56am As long as Hansen or any of his climate activist cronies are in charge of or have anything to do with NASA data and reports etc you can not ever credit it as credible or unbiased.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16422 Gender:	Re: Global warming is real Reply #59 - Mar 18^th, 2018 at 1:06pm Johnnie wrote on Mar 17^th, 2018 at 9:45pm: As the thermal mass increases so does the time to dissipate it, night and day remains constant. The sun only heats the top few centimetres of ocean. It gives off the heat overnight. Do you know the boiling point of fresh water? Salt water is higher depending on salt density.
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