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Global warming, the science and the consequences (Read 29165 times)
lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #75 - May 8th, 2017 at 11:19pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 8th, 2017 at 7:36pm:
A consequence of a warming world, more bush/wild fires and a longer wild/bushfire season: the BoM confirmed this in their State of the Climate report. Here is one case, in spring in the US:

Quote:
A wildfire that has burned more than 100,000 acres (40,469 hectares) at the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge in southern Georgia could take until November before it is put out, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said on Monday.

The fire has burned about one-fourth of the wildlife refuge, and the blaze is considered only eight-percent contained, said Mark Davis, spokesman for the service.

"November is the worst-case scenario," said Davis. "The firefighters' plan is to contain the fire as best they can, hoping that nature will cooperate with some rainfall."


1. The BoM only reported from 1979 to 1990 odd. It didn't address all the data available. They didn't say the bushfire seasons are worse than they have ever been.

2. The fire in the USA; is it the worst or have there been others worse?

. . .


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-georgia-fire-idUSKBN17X2H2

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #76 - May 8th, 2017 at 11:48pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 8th, 2017 at 8:24pm:
Sea level rise threatening historic sites, even telephone poles in Tasmania:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/climate/tasmania-global-warming-shoreline-ero...



So a New York Times article on erosion in Tasmania. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Sea level trend Spring Bay - Triabunna, Tas.

...
Sea level was higher in about 1994-5? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #77 - May 9th, 2017 at 7:57am
 
More wildfires:

Quote:
Increased risk of drought-related wildfires at the heart of the Amazon rainforest adds to vulnerability caused by deforestation at the periphery.

LONDON, 6 May, 2017 – The Amazon rainforest, the greatest and richest of the world’s tropical forests, is vulnerable both from without and within, according to two new studies.

The forested regions in the flood plains at the heart of the Amazon could be more than usually at risk of wildfire that could spread through the rest of the canopy to higher ground. . . .

An international team of researchers reports in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they matched satellite and field data for the entire Amazon basin, compared forest resilience in those places that were often flooded and never flooded, and analysed the distribution of trees across the river basin.

Rainforest cycles

They found that fire-related savanna dominated the flooded parts when rainfall dropped below 1,500 mm a year. In the upland regions, the forest survived even when rainfall dropped to 1,000 mm a year.

“Our findings suggest that if the Amazonian climate becomes drier, forests will probably collapse first in the seasonally inundated areas,” says Bernardo Flores, a Brazilian scientist now based at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, who led the study.

The great rainforest is subject to cycles of drought, and during severe episodes the region is less likely to absorb carbon from the atmosphere and more likely to release it − a process that could only accelerate global warming. And this in turn could only bring further hazard to the rainforest.

It was ravaged by fire after the droughts of 1997 and 2005, and the impact on tree cover and soil fertility was, unexpectedly, more persistent in the floodplains. . . .

Scientists from the University of Maryland in the US looked at data from 2000 to 2013 for the whole vast area of the Legal Amazon Region, an administrative entity that embraces 5 million square kilometres of nine states in Brazil, and is home to 24 million people.

They found that although humans were still invading and clearing primary forest, they were disturbing an even greater area of secondary forest, plantation and woodland.

Altogether, this clearing of regenerated forest and plantation accounted for 53% of gross tree cover loss, the researchers say, and up to 35% of the above-ground carbon released to the atmosphere.

Fire cleared about 9% of the primary forest, with the damage peaking during the droughts of 2005, 2007 and 2010. – Climate News Network


http://climatenewsnetwork.net/amazon-rainforest-double-jeopardy/

Wildfires becoming more frequent and more unmanageable with AGW and the wildfires in turn add to the CO2 in the air and so increase AGW.

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #78 - May 9th, 2017 at 9:16am
 
lee wrote on May 8th, 2017 at 11:19pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 8th, 2017 at 7:36pm:
A consequence of a warming world, more bush/wild fires and a longer wild/bushfire season: the BoM confirmed this in their State of the Climate report. Here is one case, in spring in the US:

Quote:
A wildfire that has burned more than 100,000 acres (40,469 hectares) at the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge in southern Georgia could take until November before it is put out, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said on Monday.

The fire has burned about one-fourth of the wildlife refuge, and the blaze is considered only eight-percent contained, said Mark Davis, spokesman for the service.

"November is the worst-case scenario," said Davis. "The firefighters' plan is to contain the fire as best they can, hoping that nature will cooperate with some rainfall."


1. The BoM only reported from 1979 to 1990 odd. It didn't address all the data available. They didn't say the bushfire seasons are worse than they have ever been.

2. The fire in the USA; is it the worst or have there been others worse?

. . .


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-georgia-fire-idUSKBN17X2H2



You stuffed that reply up.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

The BoM said that since 1970 the bushfire season had become longer. You are reading things into that that are not there. Do that Elementary Logic course, Lees!
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #79 - May 9th, 2017 at 11:26am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 9th, 2017 at 9:16am:
The BoM said that since 1970 the bushfire season had become longer. You are reading things into that that are not there. Do that Elementary Logic course, Lees!


Yes 1979 was finger error. Should have been 1970. Wink


And that report was based on CSIRO research which was based on "Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010".

"For this study, FFDI is chosen to quantify fire weather conditions. This index was empirically derived in the late 1960s to relate weather conditions to expected fire behaviour and rate of spread. "

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3480/full

If you look at figures 3 & 4 you will see they only go back to about 1974.

"Trends from 1974 to 2015 in annual 90th percentile of daily FFDI at 38 climate reference locations. Trends are in FFDI points per decade and larger circles represent larger trends.
Filled circles represent statistically significant trends. Trends are upward (in red), except for Brisbane airport (in blue). Figure is updated to 2015 from Clarke et al. (2013)."

www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/State-of-the-Climate-...

So FFDI wasn't derived until the 1960's. Clarke et al methodology only goes back to the early 1970's.

So they can't compare early 20th century bushfire seasons to anything. Capiche?



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« Last Edit: May 9th, 2017 at 11:46am by lee »  
 
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #80 - May 9th, 2017 at 11:44am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 9th, 2017 at 7:57am:
They found that although humans were still invading and clearing primary forest, they were disturbing an even greater area of secondary forest, plantation and woodland.

Altogether, this clearing of regenerated forest and plantation accounted for 53% of gross tree cover loss, the researchers say, and up to 35% of the above-ground carbon released to the atmosphere.

Fire cleared about 9% of the primary forest, with the damage peaking during the droughts of 2005, 2007 and 2010. – Climate News Network


http://climatenewsnetwork.net/amazon-rainforest-double-jeopardy/

Wildfires becoming more frequent and more unmanageable with AGW and the wildfires in turn add to the CO2 in the air and so increase AGW.



Nothing there about AGW. You do know how humans clear forests?
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #81 - May 9th, 2017 at 7:51pm
 
This is similar to the pine bark beetle now wreaking havoc on the conifer forests of the west coast of the US and Canada: winters too short and mild to kill enough of the beetles or their eggs.

Quote:
A small but dangerous parasite, the winter tick, is spreading north and west as winters become shorter and now is knocking at Alaska's border.

The winter tick, which has already devastated moose populations in New England and the upper Midwest, has been confirmed in Canada's Yukon Territory and in the Northwest Territories, where it's infecting elk, mule deer and some moose.

"Now that they're moving farther north through Canada, north and west, they're eventually going to arrive here, if they're not here already," said Kimberlee Beckmen, wildlife veterinarian for the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. "We will be next. It's only a matter of time."


Shorter winters and likely milder winters a result of AGW, of course.

These ticks are more than a nuisance to the animals, especially calves:

Quote:
The average tick load on an infested moose is 40,000, and some have been found with 90,000, said Peter Pekins of the University of New Hampshire, one of the lead scientists studying the disastrous impacts of winter ticks on New England moose.

A load of more than 40,000 ticks will use up a calf's entire blood supply in four weeks, Pekins said. "They get anemic, they have declining weight too, and that's just the end of them," he said.

Adult moose are more likely to survive, but reproduction has been affected, with far fewer cows giving birth to twins, he said.


The life cycle of the tick allows massive numbers of tick eggs to survive winter:
Quote:
The spread of winter ticks is aided by the warming climate, according to Pekins and other scientists.

Because of the timing of ticks' life events, higher temperatures, earlier springs, later winters — the pattern in a warming world — help them survive, proliferate and attach to moose.

Adults females drop off animals in the spring to lay eggs, Pekins said. For an egg-laying female tick, "Her survival is much higher if it's bare ground than if it's 2 feet of snow," he said.

The resulting larvae climb up vegetation and cluster together in the fall in big balls, which passing moose or deer can pick up — and they are affected by the timing of winter's arrival, Pekins said. "The first snow event is key to killing the larval ticks that are up in the vegetation," he said.


The shorter winters helps their spread:
Quote:
In the Northwest Territories, tick-infected "ghost moose" were first documented in the 1980s, and cases have increased since then.

They have spread as far north as 66 degrees latitude in the territory's Sahtu region, and have also been found on caribou, according to biologists' reports. The Arctic Circle is about 66 degrees north latitude.


The North West Territories:
...

Showing the ticks/eggs survive the present shorter winters:
Quote:
Also ominous for Alaska is the result of past research, done by Beckmen's predecessor at Fish and Game, which suggests winter ticks can survive even harsh Fairbanks temperatures.

Randall Zarnke, a former Fish and Game veterinarian, and his research partners tested some captive winter ticks, monitoring adult females and the eggs' hatch success in three Alaska locations, including Fairbanks; many test subjects survived, said the study, published in 1990.


That was 1990, AGW has powered along since then, of course.
Quote:
A recent study co-authored by Beckmen analyzed ticks and found 10 different species of ticks had been retrieved from dogs, cats, people, other mammals and wild birds at 29 sites around the state between 2010 and 2016.

Some of the tick species were native, but some were not — and some nonnative species were found on dogs or humans without recent history of travel outside of Alaska, indicating those ticks have already settled in Alaska.

The brown dog tick is one nonnative species that appears to be well-established in the state, Beckmen said.

The study also included the first Alaska record of one species, Ixodes texanus, commonly called the raccoon tick, which was found on a marten.

There is also one tick-borne disease that has long been in Alaska — tularemia. People exposed to tularemia are treated with antibiotics, but those exposures do not always result in formal diagnoses reported to health authorities, Beckmen said.

Other serious tick-borne diseases have yet to be reported in Alaska.

Not so in the European Arctic and subarctic, where tick-borne diseases are rising in a pattern correlated with increasing temperatures.


https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/environment/2017/05/06/threat-of-moose-killing-t...


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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #82 - May 9th, 2017 at 8:00pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 9th, 2017 at 7:51pm:
The brown dog tick is one nonnative species that appears to be well-established in the state, Beckmen said.



So how did non-native ticks get there?

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #83 - May 9th, 2017 at 8:09pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 9th, 2017 at 7:51pm:
The shorter winters helps their spread:
Quote:
In the Northwest Territories, tick-infected "ghost moose" were first documented in the 1980s, and cases have increased since then.

They have spread as far north as 66 degrees latitude in the territory's Sahtu region, and have also been found on caribou, according to biologists' reports. The Arctic Circle is about 66 degrees north latitude.


Oh, Only first reported in the 1980's. Wonder how long it has been there.

Oh,

"Habitat/Range: The winter tick has a large geographic distribution in North America. They can be found coast to coast through much of Canada and the United States ranging from the Yukon Territory in the north to along the Mexican border in the south. They can be found in a wide variety of habitats, but are strongly associated with the presence of moose. Winter ticks are found in forested areas throughout the state of Maine, particularly in central and northern counties."

https://extension.umaine.edu/ipm/tickid/maine-tick-species/winter-tick-or-moose-...

Just hopped across the border, to the right. Wink

Edit: "The only NWT reports were anecdotal reports of moose affected by winter tick recorded from Fort Providence in 1987 and near Fort Liard and near Fort Smith prior to 19671. However, hunters north of 62º in the NWT were not surveyed in this study."

http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/state-environment/157-trends-winter-tick-moose
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #84 - May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am
 
Quote:
Thawing Alaska Permafrost Sends Autumn CO2 Emissions Surging
Emissions from thawing permafrost are now outpacing the uptake of carbon dioxide during the growing season, a new study suggests


Soaring temperatures in the Arctic have triggered a huge seasonal surge in carbon dioxide emissions from thawing permafrost and may be tipping the region toward becoming a net source of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, a new study shows.

Even into early winter, when the ground would have been frozen 40 years ago, microbes in the permafrost are continuing to release heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide emissions are now outpacing the uptake of CO2 during the spring and summer growing season, the study suggests.

The study's authors, researchers from Harvard, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other institutions, measured atmospheric CO2 in Alaska and found that emissions from October through December have increased by 73 percent since 1975 and that the increase correlates with rising summer temperatures.


Positive feedback where increasing warmth releases more heat–trapping emissions.

Quote:
The findings suggest that global climate models are underestimating how much greenhouse gas pollution will be unleashed as the Arctic continues to warm at twice the global average rate, said lead author Roisin Commane of the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences.

The Arctic climate feedback loop is stronger than scientists estimated, Commane said. Global warming thaws permafrost, releasing more greenhouse gases, which causes yet more warming.

"It's consistent with the effects of a warming Arctic," she said. "We're seeing very large emissions in the early winter. When I looked at the models used by the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], none of them looked at the fall respiration. They didn't realize how important that is."


Quote:
Year-round measurements of CO2 emissions from permafrost have been sparse up to now, and some widely cited studies suggested that rising emissions from thawing permafrost were offset by increased uptake from Arctic forests. But according to the new research, those calculations need to be revised.

Plants inhale massive amounts of CO2 in the spring and summer growing season. Then, in the fall and winter, the plants die and decompose, releasing CO2 and methane. That cycle gives the global CO2 level its signature zigzag pattern. In the Arctic, emissions during the decomposition phase are outpacing CO2 uptake during the growing season, according to the study.


Quote:
A recent report from the Arctic Council found that near-surface permafrost has warmed by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius in the last 10 years, and that summer thawing has deepened at most monitoring locations.

Permafrost currently covers about 5.8 million square miles. A study published in April that looked at the impact rising temperatures would have on the permafrost and found that as much as 2.5 million square miles of it could thaw if global temperatures reached 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Another study, published in February, found that 52,000 square miles of Canadian permafrost was already in rapid decline.


Quote:
The new Alaska study is another step toward understanding how sensitive the Arctic is to increasing temperatures. The Arctic permafrost seals in a massive store of carbon, roughly double the amount of CO2 currently in Earth's atmosphere. If the trends being seen in Alaska are similar in Siberia and Canada, it would have a big effect on the global carbon budget, said co-author Pieter Tans, with NOAA's Earth Systems Research laboratory.

"The important thing in this paper is, it shows where the models fail. They don't capture these cold-season emissions very well," said Donatella Zona of San Diego State University in California, who was not involved in the new research.

"We need to make the case that this is important and get the resources to expand the studies in other areas, especially Siberia," she said.


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08052017/arctic-permafrost-thawing-alaska-tem...

Yeah, “just a cycle” eh ’Erbert?
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« Last Edit: May 14th, 2017 at 9:56am by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #85 - May 14th, 2017 at 11:00am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am:
Soaring temperatures in the Arctic have triggered a huge seasonal surge in carbon dioxide emissions from thawing permafrost and may be tipping the region toward becoming a net source of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, a new study shows.



Oh, I thought the scare campaign was methane.

Jovial Monk wrote on May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am:
Year-round measurements of CO2 emissions from permafrost have been sparse up to now, and some widely cited studies suggested that rising emissions from thawing permafrost were offset by increased uptake from Arctic forests. But according to the new research, those calculations need to be revised.


So we have little knowledge, long term

Jovial Monk wrote on May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am:
A recent report from the Arctic Council found that near-surface permafrost has warmed by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius in the last 10 years,


Was it still below freezing?

Jovial Monk wrote on May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am:
A study published in April that looked at the impact rising temperatures would have on the permafrost and found that as much as 2.5 million square miles of it could thaw if global temperatures reached 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures.


It must be worse than we thought. What happens id it stops at 1 degree Celsius?

Jovial Monk wrote on May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am:
"The important thing in this paper is, it shows where the models fail. They don't capture these cold-season emissions very well," said Donatella Zona of San Diego State University in California, who was not involved in the new research.


Oh well back to sleep then. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on May 14th, 2017 at 9:22am:
Yeah, “just a cycle” eh ’Erbert?


Can you show it has never happened before?

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #86 - May 15th, 2017 at 1:36pm
 
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #87 - May 19th, 2017 at 11:25am
 
Thawing of the Arctic tundra releasing CO
2
into the atmosphere:

https://thinkprogress.org/alaskas-vicious-cycle-warming-tundra-spews-co2-speedin...
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #88 - May 19th, 2017 at 5:32pm
 
Oh No Think Progress.

from the  paper behind it.

". Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Barrow station indicate that October through December emissions of CO2 from surrounding tundra increased by 73% since 1975, "

How did they determine what was caused by melting permafrost and the Urban Heat Island effect caused by fossil fuel heaters? Peer-reviewed paper at springer

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.971/pdf

Dated 2003. Do you think they might be using solar heaters now?
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #89 - May 20th, 2017 at 2:33pm
 
Quote:
It was designed as an impregnable deep-freeze to protect the world’s most precious seeds from any global disaster and ensure humanity’s food supply forever. But the Global Seed Vault, buried in a mountain deep inside the Arctic circle, has been breached after global warming produced extraordinary temperatures over the winter, sending meltwater gushing into the entrance tunnel.

The vault is on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen and contains almost a million packets of seeds, each a variety of an important food crop. When it was opened in 2008, the deep permafrost through which the vault was sunk was expected to provide “failsafe” protection against “the challenge of natural or man-made disasters”.

But soaring temperatures in the Arctic at the end of the world’s hottest ever recorded year led to melting and heavy rain, when light snow should have been falling. “It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” said Hege Njaa Aschim, from the Norwegian government, which owns the vault.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/19/arctic-stronghold-of-worlds-...
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