Australian Politics Forum - Global warming, the science and the consequences

Jovial Monk

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Global warming, the science and the consequences
Apr 20^th, 2017 at 6:52am

Funny old “Ice Age:”

Quote:

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second largest ice sheet on Earth and has been losing mass for decades, a trend scientists have linked to a warming climate. However, the mass change experienced by individual coastal glaciers, which flow out from the ice sheet into the ocean, is highly variable. This makes predicting the impact on future sea-level rise difficult.

“We were looking for a way to explain why this variability exists, and we found a way to do it that has never been applied before on this scale,” Felikson said.

Of the 16 glaciers researchers investigated in West Greenland, the study found four that are the most susceptible to thinning: Rink Isbrae, Umiamako Isbrae, Jakobshavn Isbrae and Sermeq Silardleq.

Umiamako Isbrae, Sermeq Silardleq and Jakobshavn Isbrae are already losing mass, with Jakobshavn being responsible for more than 81 percent of West Greenland’s total mass loss over the past 30 years.

Poor Booby thinks Greenland is gaining ice.

Quote:

The analysis works by calculating how far inland thinning that starts at the terminus of each glacier is likely to extend. Glaciers with thinning that reaches far inland are the most susceptible to ice mass loss.

Just how prone a glacier is to thinning depends on its thickness and surface slope, features that are influenced by the landscape under the glacier. In general, thinning spreads more easily across thick and flat glaciers and is hindered by thin and steep portions of glaciers.

The research revealed that most glaciers are susceptible to thinning between 10 and 30 miles inland. For Jakobshavn, however, the risk of thinning reaches over 150 miles inland—almost one-third of the way across the Greenland Ice Sheet.

“Jakobshavn is particularly vulnerable to thinning because it flows through a very deep trough that extends deep into the ice sheet interior, making the ice thick and the surface flat,” Felikson said.

Quote:

Among other sources of data, Felikson and his team used a bedrock topography map created with data from NASA’s Ocean Melting Greenland project to determine the thickness of the ice and a digital elevation model from the Greenland Ice Mapping Project, which uses measurements from the Japanese-provided Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite, to separate glacier catchments.

Ocean Melting Greenland, OMG

Quote:

Ginny Catania, an associate professor in the University of Texas Jackson School of Geosciences and research associate at UTIG, said the group has plans to apply the shape analysis technique to other glaciers. “Our plan is to extend the analysis so that we can identify glaciers in Antarctica and around the rest of Greenland that are most likely to be susceptible to change in the future,” she said.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2576/glacier-shape-influences-susceptibility-to-me...

So the scientists can tell us what is happening, in more and more detail. Up to politicians to use the data. They are just duck shoving it away so far and so is the electorate, electing populists like Trumpy and Turdful. Won’t be able to do that forever tho. Starting now will save big money compared to leaving it until almost too late.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #1 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 7:11am To see how AGW will affect temperature and precipitation where you live you can download the NASA dataset. Look here: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-releases-detailed-global-climate-change-...
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lee

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #2 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 10:58am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 6:52am:

We were looking for a way to explain why this variability exists, and we found a way to do it that has never been applied before on this scale,” Felikson said.

A new statistical tool?

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 6:52am:

Of the 16 glaciers researchers investigated in West Greenland, the study found four that are the most susceptible to thinning: Rink Isbrae, Umiamako Isbrae, Jakobshavn Isbrae and Sermeq Silardleq.

Umiamako Isbrae, Sermeq Silardleq and Jakobshavn Isbrae are already losing mass, with Jakobshavn being responsible for more than 81 percent of West Greenland’s total mass loss over the past 30 years.

Poor Booby thinks Greenland is gaining ice.

So it seems three may be losing ice mass. What about the rest? Do you really believe polar ice is static?

[quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1492635122/0#0 date=1492635122]Ocean Melting Greenland, OMG /quote]

And no link to AGW. Wink

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« Last Edit: Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:11am by lee »

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lee

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #3 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:00am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 7:11am:

To see how AGW will affect temperature and precipitation where you live you can download the NASA dataset. Look here:

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-releases-detailed-global-climate-change-...

"NASA has released data showing how temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change through the year 2100 because of growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere."

You do know, being a scientist, the difference between data and projections? Grin

BTW- Did you see the difference -

JM - " AGW will affect temperature and precipitation"

NASA - "temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change"

You are several orders of magnitude ahead of NASA. Where do you get your data? Wink

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TheFunPolice

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #4 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 1:36pm

lee wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:00am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 7:11am:

To see how AGW will affect temperature and precipitation where you live you can download the NASA dataset. Look here:

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-releases-detailed-global-climate-change-...

"NASA has released data showing how temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change through the year 2100 because of growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere."

You do know, being a scientist, the difference between data and projections? Grin

BTW- Did you see the difference -

JM - " AGW will affect temperature and precipitation"

NASA - "temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change"

You are several orders of magnitude ahead of NASA. Where do you get your data? Wink

As a troll for the foreign vested interest that comes from planet accountant you don't even know the difference Grin

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #5 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 2:57pm Thank you for confirming your idiocy.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #6 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 3:17pm JUst ignore Liar Lees, DRAH.
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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #7 - Apr 22^nd, 2017 at 11:34am Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 3:17pm: JUst ignore Liar Lees, DRAH. I protect my children!
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #8 - Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am

Quote:

According to Nasa, in 2016 the Earth’s surface temperature shattered the previous record for hottest year by 0.12°C. That record was set in 2015, which broke the previous record by 0.13°C. That record had been set in 2014, beating out 2010, which in turn had broken the previous record set in 2005. . . .

Even including World War II, in the first 100 years of the Nasa data, the high temperature record was broken seven times. It’s been broken seven times in just the past 20 years.

Chicago and most of the midwest of the US and Canada enjoyed 70°F weather in the last NH winter. 70°F! Usually—freezing weather! No matter your beliefs, diehard denier or sensible, 70°C weather in the middle of winter in those regions is a matter for “What the. . .”

I got those temperature details from comments to the ludicrous videos Booby keeps posting and nobody watches. The official record confirms this.

As another post I made shows: warm winter plus warm wet spring means lots of mozzies—and the diseases they bring!

Quote:

This rapid rate of record-breaking heat (once every three years) is consistent with climate scientists’ expectations. A 2011 paper by Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou found that as global warming continues, we should expect to set new records about once every four years.

Quote:

Indeed, if we only use the data of the past 30 y, these show an almost linear trend of 0.017°C/y, yielding an expected 2.5 new record hot temperatures in the last decade [1 per 4 years].

Rahmstorf told me that so far, the rate of record-setting temperatures is in line with a consistent human-caused global warming trend:

Quote:

There is no statistical evidence for recent acceleration, just as there never was statistical evidence for a “slowdown” in global warming before the recent series of records. It’s all still within the noise (which could well be hiding an acceleration, but we cannot tell yet from these data).

Scientists are cautious in their public utterances. No BS unlike in the videos Booby posts that are chockful of BS and pseudoscience.

Quote:

Global temperature wasn’t the only record-setter in 2016. Global warming causes climate change, and North America saw its highest number of storms and floods in over four decades. Globally, we saw over 1.5 times more extreme weather catastrophes in 2016 than the average over the past 30 years. Global sea ice cover plunged to a record low as well. California endured a fifth consecutive year of its worst drought in over a millennium. A drought also savaged the maize harvest in Southern Africa, causing a famine. The list of climate consequences goes on.

That is to be expected. A longer bushfire season and more and more severe bushfires/wildfires is just one consequence. Add in rising sea levels (rising more and more rapidly as Antarctica gains less and less net mass) and you can see AGW is causing more and more destruction.

Nor is all of 2016 due to El Nino:

(Pssst, hey Booby, where is that Ice Age???)

Another Booby, Scott Pruitt:
Quote:

testifying before the Senate on the day the record temperatures were announced in a bid to become EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt claimed that we don’t know how much humans are contributing to global warming. . . .

This is simply wrong. We wouldn’t be setting a new temperature record every three years if not for global warming, and there’s no question that the warming is predominantly human-caused. The latest IPCC report stated with 95% confidence that humans are the main cause of global warming since 1950, and most likely responsible for 100% of that temperature rise.

Every study quantifying the various contributions to global warming has found humans are the dominant cause. Our fingerprints are all over climate change – the changes are precisely in line with what we’d expect to see as a result of an increased greenhouse effect from human carbon pollution. . . .

Climate denial is evolving. All of Trump’s nominees rejected his claims that climate change is a hoax, but all cast doubt on the degree to which humans are contributing, and to the threats it poses. It’s a softer, cuddlier form of climate denial that doesn’t reject all scientific research – just the vast majority – and yields the same end result of obstructing climate solutions.

Lees take note Cheesy

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jan/2...

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« Last Edit: Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 10:07am by Jovial Monk »

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lee

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #9 - Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 1:28pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

According to Nasa, in 2016 the Earth’s surface temperature shattered the previous record for hottest year by 0.12°C.

With no uncertainty at all? How bizarre. You are a scientist aren't you? And you don't even question that? Cheesy

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Even including World War II, in the first 100 years of the Nasa data, the high temperature record was broken seven times. It’s been broken seven times in just the past 20 years.

Yes. Again with no uncertainty. But don't forget 1997. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Chicago and most of the midwest of the US and Canada enjoyed 70°F weather in the last NH winter. 70°F! Usually—freezing weather! No matter your beliefs, diehard denier or sensible, 70°C weather in the middle of winter in those regions is a matter for “What the. . .”

I got those temperature details from comments to the ludicrous videos Booby keeps posting and nobody watches. The official record confirms this.

As another post I made shows: warm winter plus warm wet spring means lots of mozzies—and the diseases they bring!

You forgot and it has never happened before, Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Quote:
Indeed, if we only use the data of the past 30 y, these show an almost linear trend of 0.017°C/y,

Don't forget is supposed to get worser.

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Rahmstorf told me that so far, the rate of record-setting temperatures is in line with a consistent human-caused global warming trend:

Did he also tell you it is all CO2? Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Quote:
There is no statistical evidence for recent acceleration, just as there never was statistical evidence for a “slowdown” in global warming before the recent series of records. It’s all still within the noise (which could well be hiding an acceleration, but we cannot tell yet from these data).

But he can still see trends even though they are "within the noise " Grin

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lee

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #10 - Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 1:42pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

That is to be expected. A longer bushfire season and more and more severe bushfires/wildfires is just one consequence.

Compared to early 20th century warming or just lazy statistics?

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Add in rising sea levels (rising more and more rapidly as Antarctica gains less and less net mass) and you can see AGW is causing more and more destruction.

And all supposition.Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

testifying before the Senate on the day the record temperatures were announced in a bid to become EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt claimed that we don’t know how much humans are contributing to global warming. . . .

This is simply wrong. We wouldn’t be setting a new temperature record every three years if not for global warming, and there’s no question that the warming is predominantly human-caused. The latest IPCC report stated with 95% confidence that humans are the main cause of global warming since 1950, and most likely responsible for 100% of that temperature rise.

Actually, it is true. If you think that wrong please cite the paper where they have calculated CO2 produced naturally, and the changes each year,

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Every study quantifying the various contributions to global warming has found humans are the dominant cause

From SKS I see.

The SKS link to Tel et al 200 tells us nothing as the link is broken.

Meehl et al 2004 - "Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents that influence the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature during the twentieth century. Two are natural (volcanoes and solar) and the others are anthropogenic [e.g., greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone (stratospheric and tropospheric), and direct effect of sulfate aerosols]"

So only two are natural. No clouds, No plants. hardly convincing. And the ever present models, Wink

Was it Heidi or Helga. Maybe Bruce.

I am too lazy to look at the rest.

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 9:45am:

Lees take note

I did better, I went to your SKS site.

I will let you review the other papers. Wink

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #11 - Apr 23^rd, 2017 at 7:41pm Hey JM, Why haven't you defended Meehl et al? ALL GHG's are Anthropogenic aren't they?
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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 10958 Australia Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #12 - Apr 24^th, 2017 at 9:55am https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2015/05/19/updated-nasa-data-polar-ice-...
Back to top	1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax 2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos IP Logged

Jovial Monk

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #13 - Apr 24^th, 2017 at 10:04am

That is crap, Ajax.

The Arctic is warming and the sea ice there is shrinking. This NH winter it was even shrinking in winter!

The globe is warming and it is because of the greenhouse gases we emit.

At least you haven’t totally fruitloop unlike Sir Booby de Louse but PLEASE give up on this denialism!

This is from the NASA website:

Quote:

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum each September. September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 13.3 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. This graph shows the average monthly Arctic sea ice extent in September since 1979, derived from satellite observations.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

You will need to go to the above page to see the graphs etc.

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Ajax

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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #14 - Apr 24^th, 2017 at 10:06am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24^th, 2017 at 10:04am:

That is crap, Ajax.

The Arctic is warming and the sea ice there is shrinking. This NH winter it was even shrinking in winter!

The globe is warming and it is because of the greenhouse gases we emit.

At least you haven’t totally fruitloop unlike Sir Booby de Louse but PLEASE give up on this denialism!

As the article says JV it seems the warmists have made the 1979 ice cover "THE" standard one after 30 years of global cooling.

As NASA shows it did retreat in the last decade by about 10%, but who's to say this isn't normal.....???

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2015/05/19/updated-nasa-data-polar-ice-...

September 1957 - arctic decreases by 40%

May 1947 - arctic melting

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/22429983?searchTerm=climate%20change&sea...

November 1922 - arctic melting

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

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« Last Edit: Apr 24^th, 2017 at 10:11am by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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