Australian Politics Forum - Global warming, the science and the consequences

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #390 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:40pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 12:09am:

A shitload of rain.

"A dramatic photograph circulating on Twitter appeared to show several planes floating in a deep lake that was once an airport. The airport pictured here is LaGuardia in New York, and it’s a mock-up, meant to show the potential effect of climate change on the transportation hub by 2100, based on data from Climate Central."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2017/08/28/no-the-shark-pic...

OOPS. Wink

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #391 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:44pm It was still a shitload of rain.
Back to top	OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now! Topics in the right MRB! IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21533 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #392 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 2:06pm Houston 1935 flood. 54.4 ft. Of course floods can't be compared. Different infrastructure.
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #393 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:07pm

1935 was long time ago.

1935 11" of rainfall. Think Houston has had more than that already and

Quote:

Another 38-64 centimetres of rain is expected in the coming days.

So much more rain in 2017.

Wow!
Quote:

ABC News meteorologists say about 20 to 40 inches of rain has already fallen in the Houston area. As of mid-Monday, the highest rain was 39.72 inches near Dayton, Texas. Rainfall totals could reach 50 inches by the end of the week.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/epic-catastrophic-flooding-devastates-houston-rainfall-...

Back to top

« Last Edit: Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:19pm by Jovial Monk »

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #394 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:23pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:07pm:

1935 was long time ago.

1935 11" of rainfall. Think Houston has had more than that already and

"20.6" in 35 hours over Westfield, TX. Houston reported 5.52" of rain. Satsuma in northwest Harris County had 16.49" of rain. Bayous were 52 feet above normal. The city's pumping station was unable to supply water for a few days and the city had no protection against fire. Buffalo Bayou at Houston 54.4 feet with 40,000 cfs. Buffalo Bayou at Addicks 85.6'. 2/3 of rural Harris County was flooded. Halls Bayou was over its banks. Spring and Cypress Creeks were out of their banks. (1)(4)(3)(6)"

http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houflood.html

Not sure where you got 11 inches from and over what time period.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:07pm:

Quote:
Another 38-64 centimetres of rain is expected in the coming days.

So much more rain in 2017.

So up to another 2.5 inches.

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #395 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:59pm

Prof Rignot said his prediction of 2050 being the time when the major ice sheets start disappearing depended on no “non–linear” events.

Here is one non–linear event. Oops!

Quote:

Abstract

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012–2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.

http://www.pnas.org/content/114/21/5361

Ummm, not good.

Back to top

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #396 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 8:46pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:59pm:

Ummm, not good.

Yeah. Too many weasel words. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:59pm:

Prof Rignot said his prediction of 2050 being the time when the major ice sheets start disappearing depended on no “non–linear” events.

Here is one non–linear event. Oops!

Then of course the non-linear reaction of CO2. it being logarithmic. Wink

Back to top

IP Logged

Grendel

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #397 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 8:52pm

here ya go monkey Boy
lets concentrate closer to home eh.

I recall quite a few Hurricanes/Cyclones/Typhoons here... Tracy anyone? Katrina?

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!

Oh and Bushfires anyone?

Yep we get all manner of NATURAL Disasters.

You don't have to focus on a weather event in the US Monk, we have weather here too.

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #398 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 9:51am

lee wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 8:46pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:59pm:

Ummm, not good.

Yeah. Too many weasel words. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:59pm:

Prof Rignot said his prediction of 2050 being the time when the major ice sheets start disappearing depended on no “non–linear” events.

Here is one non–linear event. Oops!

Then of course the non-linear reaction of CO2. it being logarithmic. Wink

And yet the effect of CO2 is linear. Any idea why?

Re the “weasel words:”
Quote:

We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter

No weasel words there!

Back to top

« Last Edit: Aug 30^th, 2017 at 9:57am by Jovial Monk »

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21533 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #399 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 11:16am Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2017 at 9:51am: And yet the effect of CO2 is linear. Any idea why? Only because you don't understand the effect of CO2 is logarithmic.
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #400 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 11:48am No, it is logarithmic—but expresses linearly. Any idea why? This should not be a hard question as it has been discussed before.
Back to top	OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now! Topics in the right MRB! IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #401 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 12:40pm

Houston rainfall:

Quote:

Capital Climate‏ @capital_climate 1h1 hour ago

Houston #IAH 2-day unofficial 21.79" so far crushes old 2-day record 11.84 & every interval <= 26 days!

#Harvey #houstonflooding #climate

Quote:

Capital Climate‏ @capital_climate 1h1 hour ago

Houston #IAH 2017 rainfall to date 70.79" = 4th wettest YEAR on record.
~2" from top wettest with 4 months left.
#Harvey #houstonflooding

Back to top

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21533 Gender:	Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences Reply #402 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 3:54pm wow. Comparing monthly and yearly figures and tells us what about Cyclone Harvey? It seems it was a wet year, it seems it was a wet month.
Back to top	IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #403 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 4:33pm

" It's a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly
Michael E Mann"

"Harvey was almost certainly more intense than it would have been in the absence of human-caused warming, which means stronger winds, more wind damage and a larger storm surge."

" Finally, the more tenuous but potentially relevant climate factors: part of what has made Harvey such a devastating storm is the way it has stalled near the coast. It continues to pummel Houston and surrounding regions with a seemingly endless deluge, which will likely top out at nearly 4ft (1.22m) of rainfall over a days-long period before it is done.

The stalling is due to very weak prevailing winds, which are failing to steer the storm off to sea, allowing it to spin around and wobble back and forth. This pattern, in turn, is associated with a greatly expanded subtropical high pressure system over much of the US at the moment, with the jet stream pushed well to the north. This pattern of subtropical expansion is predicted in model simulations of human-caused climate change."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-h...

I thought that with stronger winds there would be stronger winds pushing the hurricane away, no let it stall over Houston. Wink

Of course with these "increased extreme weather events" such as hurricanes, they will have to tie down wind generators. Also because it is pissing down rain solar panels aren't going to work.

Renewables in a "climate change" world. Wink

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #404 - Aug 30^th, 2017 at 5:05pm

Renewables and nuclear would begin to reduce emissions lessening the severity of extreme weather events. AGW causing more evaporation and subsequent precipitation leads to heavier rainfall in some locations.

An ultrahigh voltage DC grid would allow power from other, unaffected areas renewables and nuclear power to come in to Houston. Mind you, hurricane + endless heavy rain would probably overpower any power source/transmission network.

Back to top

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged