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Global warming, the science and the consequences (Read 29127 times)
Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #375 - Aug 22nd, 2017 at 9:20am
 

Quote:
This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies. Credit: NASA/SVS.



Extraordinary video of ocean currents mapped by the NASA/CNES Topex-Poseidon satellite.

This satellite and its successors have:
Quote:
. . .ushered in a new era of oceanography with the first highly accurate, global measurements of sea levels. That mission and its three successors, all named Jason, have continuously mapped global ocean currents and tides; opened our eyes to the global reach of El Niño and other climate events; created a quarter-century-long, extraordinarily precise record of global and regional sea level rise; and enabled improved forecasts of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.



Heat storage in the oceans

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1196

Quote:
More than 90 percent of the heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, which means oceans are key players in global climate. Heat causes ocean water to expand, adding to sea level rise. Measuring both long-term sea level trends and the shape of the ocean surface related to currents, Topex-Poseidon and the Jason series provide two basic ingredients for understanding the ocean's role in global climate variations.


Note the cold water south of Greenland. This is likely ice that has calved or melted from Greenland. Being fresh water it floats on top of denser saline ocean water.


El Niño, La Niña, and more

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1197/
Quote:
Among Topex-Poseidon's early achievements was recording the full extent of a record El Niño in 1997 and the succeeding La Niña in 1999. Darker colors are sea levels lower than normal, lighter and white colors are higher than normal. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.


Quite amazing.
Quote:
For decades, scientists could not predict how El Niño and other year-to-year ocean variations changed regional weather. That was partly because, using only ships and buoys, they couldn't observe the genesis and growth of these changes far out in the equatorial Pacific. Topex-Poseidon and the Jason satellites have given the first frequent, global views of the full extent and life cycles of El Niño and La Niña events. Lee-Lueng dam you of JPL — project scientist for the first two ocean altimetry missions — pointed out, "Topex-Poseidon allowed us to follow their evolution and showed that these events weren't limited to just the tropics. It also gave us evidence of even longer-lasting ocean variations." One of these is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, similar to El Niño and La Niña in character but with phases lasting up to several decades.



Tides

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1198/
Quote:
A numerical model of daily global tides using sea level data from Topex-Poseidon. Credit: ESR
.

Quote:
Topex-Poseidon made the first global maps of tides, which changed scientists' understanding of how tides dissipate. The data show that a third of tidal energy dissipates in the open ocean, playing important and previously unknown roles in mixing water within the ocean.



Forecasting

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1200/
Quote:
Jason-1 data contributed to this forecast of Hurricane Rita's track across the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. The storm track appears as a black line. Jason-1 observed a tongue of very warm water (red) in the gulf, 13-23 inches (35-60 centimeters) higher than surrounding water. Ocean heat can strengthen hurricane intensity. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.


Quote:
On smaller space and time scales, satellite altimetry measurements provide information directly useful for marine storm prediction. Hurricanes are fueled by heat stored in the ocean below, and since the upper ocean expands and contracts as it heats and cools, sea level height is a marker for water temperature and heat content. So it is hardly surprising that ocean altimetry data are routinely used in forecasting hurricane strength.

In 2014, an unexpected forecasting use for altimetry data became operational. Bangladesh, whose 46-year history has encompassed death-dealing river floods, uses Jason-2 measurements of river levels in its flood forecasting and warning system. Within the first year using these data, Bangladesh's system enabled the most accurate, long-lead flood warnings ever given for that nation.


That is some precise measurements by the Jason satellites!

Cont’d
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #376 - Aug 22nd, 2017 at 9:21am
 
In 2017 Jason 2 satellite was showing signs of damage to its on–board systems. Its orbit was then lowered by several miles and it began mapping the topography of the sea floor, sea mounts and that kind of thing. This will help improve forecasting of tides and currents.

Quote:
Satellites have already revolutionized oceanography, and soon they will do the same for hydrology -- the study of water on land. The French/U.S. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be at the forefront, carrying an innovative interferometer dubbed KaRin that marks a break with today's technologies.

dam you notes that these changes show the value the world scientific community places on the ocean altimetry program. "The measurement is so important, and the technology is fully demonstrated," he said. "In the long haul, ocean altimetry is an international commitment."


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2614/25-years-of-global-sea-level-data-and-countin...

A fascinating account.


How accurate are the Poseidon & Jason satellites?

Quote:
Abstract

Jason, the successor to the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission, has been designed to continue seamlessly the decade-long altimetric sea level record initiated by T/P. Intersatellite calibration has determined the relative bias to an accuracy of 1.6 mm rms. Tide gauge calibration of the T/P record during its original mission shows a drift of −0.1 ± 0.4 mm/year. The tide gauge calibration of 20 months of nominal Jason data indicates a drift of −5.7 ± 1.0 mm/year, which may be attributable to errors in the orbit ephemeris and the Jason Microwave Radiometer. The analysis of T/P and Jason altimeter data over the past decade has resulted in a determination of global mean sea level change of +2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year.


From NASA:
Quote:
Abstract

TOPEX/POSEIDON is the first space mission specifically designed and conducted for studying the circulation of the world's oceans. The mission is jointly conducted by the United States and France. A state-of-the-art radar altimetry system is used to measure the precise height of sea level, from which information on the ocean circulation is obtained. The satellite, launched on August 10, 1992, has been making observations of the global oceans with unprecedented accuracy since late September 1992. To meet the stringent measurement accuracy required for ocean circulation studies, a number of innovative improvements have been made to the mission design, including the first dual-frequency space-borne radar altimeter capable of retrieving the ionospheric delay of the radar signal, a three-frequency microwave radiometer for retrieving the signal delay caused by the water vapor in the troposphere, an optimal model of the Earth's gravity field and multiple satellite tracking systems for precision orbit determination. Additionally, the satellite also carries two experimental instruments to demonstrate new technologies: a single-frequency solid-state altimeter for the technology of low-power, low-weight altimeter and a Global Positioning System receiver for continuous, precise satellite tracking. The performance of the mission's measurement system has been tested by numerous verification studies. The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm. This global data set is being analyzed by an international team of 200 scientists for improved understanding of the global ocean circulation as well as the ocean tides, geodesy, and geodynamics, and ocean wind and waves. The mission is designed to last for at least 3 years with a possible extension to 6 years. The multiyear global data set will go a long way toward understanding the ocean circulation and its variability in relation to climate change. A summary of the mission's systems and their performance as well as the mission's science team is presented in the paper.



Looks like millimeter precision. These satellites really have given us a revolution in measurement and understanding of oceans and the heating of the oceans by AGW and consequent sea level rise, ENSO and the PDO, predicting the path of hurricanes and so on.

The satellites have even found sea rises and falls in the Mediterranean:

Quote:
Abstract

Using altimetry data of the Topex/Poseidon satellite available since early 1993, we show that the eastern Mediterranean sea level has been continuously rising during 1993–1999, at a rate up to 20 mm/yr southeast of Crete. Sea level rise is also observed in the Algerian-Provencal basin as well as in the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic seas. The north Ionian sea, on the other hand, shows an opposite trend, i.e., a sea level drop during the past seven years. Sea surface temperature trends are strongly correlated to sea level trends, indicating that at least part of the observed sea level change has a thermal origin. The recent Mediterranean sea level rise observed by Topex/Poseidon may be related to the warming trends reported from hydrographic cruises in the intermediate and deep waters of the eastern basin since the early 1990s, and of the western basin since the 1960s.


The Amazon basin:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1251805001016883

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #377 - Aug 22nd, 2017 at 1:29pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 22nd, 2017 at 9:21am:
How accurate are the Poseidon & Jason satellites?



Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 22nd, 2017 at 9:21am:
The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system;


Jason-2 accuracy 3.4cm.

Centimetres. Tens of millimetres., That's how accurate they are. Wink
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #378 - Aug 22nd, 2017 at 11:51pm
 

Quote:
This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies. Credit: NASA/SVS.



Extraordinary video of ocean currents mapped by the NASA/CNES Topex-Poseidon satellite.

This satellite and its successors have:
Quote:
. . .ushered in a new era of oceanography with the first highly accurate, global measurements of sea levels. That mission and its three successors, all named Jason, have continuously mapped global ocean currents and tides; opened our eyes to the global reach of El Niño and other climate events; created a quarter-century-long, extraordinarily precise record of global and regional sea level rise; and enabled improved forecasts of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.



Heat storage in the oceans

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1196

Quote:
More than 90 percent of the heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, which means oceans are key players in global climate. Heat causes ocean water to expand, adding to sea level rise. Measuring both long-term sea level trends and the shape of the ocean surface related to currents, Topex-Poseidon and the Jason series provide two basic ingredients for understanding the ocean's role in global climate variations.


Note the cold water south of Greenland. This is likely ice that has calved or melted from Greenland. Being fresh water it floats on top of denser saline ocean water.


El Niño, La Niña, and more

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1197/
Quote:
Among Topex-Poseidon's early achievements was recording the full extent of a record El Niño in 1997 and the succeeding La Niña in 1999. Darker colors are sea levels lower than normal, lighter and white colors are higher than normal. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.


Quite amazing.
Quote:
For decades, scientists could not predict how El Niño and other year-to-year ocean variations changed regional weather. That was partly because, using only ships and buoys, they couldn't observe the genesis and growth of these changes far out in the equatorial Pacific. Topex-Poseidon and the Jason satellites have given the first frequent, global views of the full extent and life cycles of El Niño and La Niña events. Lee-Lueng dam you of JPL — project scientist for the first two ocean altimetry missions — pointed out, "Topex-Poseidon allowed us to follow their evolution and showed that these events weren't limited to just the tropics. It also gave us evidence of even longer-lasting ocean variations." One of these is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, similar to El Niño and La Niña in character but with phases lasting up to several decades.



Tides

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1198/
Quote:
A numerical model of daily global tides using sea level data from Topex-Poseidon. Credit: ESR
.

Quote:
Topex-Poseidon made the first global maps of tides, which changed scientists' understanding of how tides dissipate. The data show that a third of tidal energy dissipates in the open ocean, playing important and previously unknown roles in mixing water within the ocean.



Forecasting

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1200/
Quote:
Jason-1 data contributed to this forecast of Hurricane Rita's track across the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. The storm track appears as a black line. Jason-1 observed a tongue of very warm water (red) in the gulf, 13-23 inches (35-60 centimeters) higher than surrounding water. Ocean heat can strengthen hurricane intensity. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.


Quote:
On smaller space and time scales, satellite altimetry measurements provide information directly useful for marine storm prediction. Hurricanes are fueled by heat stored in the ocean below, and since the upper ocean expands and contracts as it heats and cools, sea level height is a marker for water temperature and heat content. So it is hardly surprising that ocean altimetry data are routinely used in forecasting hurricane strength.

In 2014, an unexpected forecasting use for altimetry data became operational. Bangladesh, whose 46-year history has encompassed death-dealing river floods, uses Jason-2 measurements of river levels in its flood forecasting and warning system. Within the first year using these data, Bangladesh's system enabled the most accurate, long-lead flood warnings ever given for that nation.


That is some precise measurements by the Jason satellites!

Cont’d
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #379 - Aug 22nd, 2017 at 11:55pm
 
In 2017 Jason 2 satellite was showing signs of damage to its on–board systems. Its orbit was then lowered by several miles and it began mapping the topography of the sea floor, sea mounts and that kind of thing. This will help improve forecasting of tides and currents.

Quote:
Satellites have already revolutionized oceanography, and soon they will do the same for hydrology -- the study of water on land. The French/U.S. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be at the forefront, carrying an innovative interferometer dubbed KaRin that marks a break with today's technologies.

dam you notes that these changes show the value the world scientific community places on the ocean altimetry program. "The measurement is so important, and the technology is fully demonstrated," he said. "In the long haul, ocean altimetry is an international commitment."


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2614/25-years-of-global-sea-level-data-and-countin...

A fascinating account.


How accurate are the Poseidon & Jason satellites?

Quote:
Abstract

Jason, the successor to the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission, has been designed to continue seamlessly the decade-long altimetric sea level record initiated by T/P. Intersatellite calibration has determined the relative bias to an accuracy of 1.6 mm rms. Tide gauge calibration of the T/P record during its original mission shows a drift of −0.1 ± 0.4 mm/year. The tide gauge calibration of 20 months of nominal Jason data indicates a drift of −5.7 ± 1.0 mm/year, which may be attributable to errors in the orbit ephemeris and the Jason Microwave Radiometer. The analysis of T/P and Jason altimeter data over the past decade has resulted in a determination of global mean sea level change of +2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year.


From NASA:
Quote:
Abstract

TOPEX/POSEIDON is the first space mission specifically designed and conducted for studying the circulation of the world's oceans. The mission is jointly conducted by the United States and France. A state-of-the-art radar altimetry system is used to measure the precise height of sea level, from which information on the ocean circulation is obtained. The satellite, launched on August 10, 1992, has been making observations of the global oceans with unprecedented accuracy since late September 1992. To meet the stringent measurement accuracy required for ocean circulation studies, a number of innovative improvements have been made to the mission design, including the first dual-frequency space-borne radar altimeter capable of retrieving the ionospheric delay of the radar signal, a three-frequency microwave radiometer for retrieving the signal delay caused by the water vapor in the troposphere, an optimal model of the Earth's gravity field and multiple satellite tracking systems for precision orbit determination. Additionally, the satellite also carries two experimental instruments to demonstrate new technologies: a single-frequency solid-state altimeter for the technology of low-power, low-weight altimeter and a Global Positioning System receiver for continuous, precise satellite tracking. The performance of the mission's measurement system has been tested by numerous verification studies. The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm. This global data set is being analyzed by an international team of 200 scientists for improved understanding of the global ocean circulation as well as the ocean tides, geodesy, and geodynamics, and ocean wind and waves. The mission is designed to last for at least 3 years with a possible extension to 6 years. The multiyear global data set will go a long way toward understanding the ocean circulation and its variability in relation to climate change. A summary of the mission's systems and their performance as well as the mission's science team is presented in the paper.



Looks like millimeter precision. These satellites really have given us a revolution in measurement and understanding of oceans and the heating of the oceans by AGW and consequent sea level rise, ENSO and the PDO, predicting the path of hurricanes and so on.

The satellites have even found sea rises and falls in the Mediterranean:

Quote:
Abstract

Using altimetry data of the Topex/Poseidon satellite available since early 1993, we show that the eastern Mediterranean sea level has been continuously rising during 1993–1999, at a rate up to 20 mm/yr southeast of Crete. Sea level rise is also observed in the Algerian-Provencal basin as well as in the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic seas. The north Ionian sea, on the other hand, shows an opposite trend, i.e., a sea level drop during the past seven years. Sea surface temperature trends are strongly correlated to sea level trends, indicating that at least part of the observed sea level change has a thermal origin. The recent Mediterranean sea level rise observed by Topex/Poseidon may be related to the warming trends reported from hydrographic cruises in the intermediate and deep waters of the eastern basin since the early 1990s, and of the western basin since the 1960s.


The Amazon basin:dings
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1251805001016883

Those findings are astounding!
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #380 - Aug 23rd, 2017 at 11:43am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 22nd, 2017 at 11:55pm:
Those findings are astounding!



Yes. Accuracy as much as 3.4cm for Jason-2 the other two are worse. Keep bringing it to the front; it won't make it any better. Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #381 - Aug 23rd, 2017 at 11:45am
 
Keep bullshitting—that will keep AGW away, in what passes for your mind.
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #382 - Aug 23rd, 2017 at 12:32pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 23rd, 2017 at 11:45am:
Keep bullshitting—that will keep AGW away, in what passes for your mind.


That's what the science says. But you of course are impervious. Wink
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #383 - Aug 23rd, 2017 at 12:35pm
 
Babbling again.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #384 - Aug 28th, 2017 at 9:05pm
 
How much did AGW add to Hurricane Harvey.

The rainfall associated with it is smashing all Texan records! AGW causes more evaporation and, of course, subsequent precipitation.


https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/did-climate-change-intensify...
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #385 - Aug 28th, 2017 at 9:10pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 28th, 2017 at 9:05pm:
How much did AGW add to Hurricane Harvey.



AGW was so good there were 4324 days between major hurricanes making landfall in the USA. Category 3 Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida on October 24th, 2005.
All that extreme weather. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #386 - Aug 28th, 2017 at 9:11pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 28th, 2017 at 9:05pm:
How much did AGW add to Hurricane Harvey.

The rainfall associated with it is smashing all Texan records! AGW causes more evaporation and, of course, subsequent precipitation.


https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/did-climate-change-intensify...

It's unmeasurable Monk because it is a spurious claim based on flawed opinion not science.
There have been and will be greater and lesser weather events.

But I already pointed out Galveston to you didn't I and you ignored it as you usually do.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #387 - Aug 28th, 2017 at 10:09pm
 
Houston’s flying boats:

...
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #388 - Aug 28th, 2017 at 10:15pm
 
So they had a lot of rain and floods.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #389 - Aug 29th, 2017 at 12:09am
 
A shitload of rain.
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