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Global warming, the science and the consequences (Read 29150 times)
lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #345 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:02am
 
Bugger. The acceleration has stopped. Oh, no. Where will they get the new scare story?

And then they will remember this is based on the satellite altimetry which has a native resolution of 35mm, but can see changes of 3mm. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #346 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:05am
 
Babble babble goes Lees.
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Grendel
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #347 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:15am
 
Wassup BSc Geology....?
Don't you understand Lee's point? Roll Eyes
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #348 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:16am
 
Grendel wrote on Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:15am:
Wassup BSc Geology....?
Don't you understand Lee's point? Roll Eyes


Of course not. The ocean isn't rocks. Wink
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #349 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 7:53am
 

Quote:
This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies. Credit: NASA/SVS.



Extraordinary video of ocean currents mapped by the NASA/CNES Topex-Poseidon satellite.

This satellite and its successors have:
Quote:
. . .ushered in a new era of oceanography with the first highly accurate, global measurements of sea levels. That mission and its three successors, all named Jason, have continuously mapped global ocean currents and tides; opened our eyes to the global reach of El Niño and other climate events; created a quarter-century-long, extraordinarily precise record of global and regional sea level rise; and enabled improved forecasts of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.



Heat storage in the oceans

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1196

Quote:
More than 90 percent of the heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, which means oceans are key players in global climate. Heat causes ocean water to expand, adding to sea level rise. Measuring both long-term sea level trends and the shape of the ocean surface related to currents, Topex-Poseidon and the Jason series provide two basic ingredients for understanding the ocean's role in global climate variations.


Note the cold water south of Greenland. This is likely ice that has calved or melted from Greenland. Being fresh water it floats on top of denser saline ocean water.


El Niño, La Niña, and more

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1197/
Quote:
Among Topex-Poseidon's early achievements was recording the full extent of a record El Niño in 1997 and the succeeding La Niña in 1999. Darker colors are sea levels lower than normal, lighter and white colors are higher than normal. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.


Quite amazing.
Quote:
For decades, scientists could not predict how El Niño and other year-to-year ocean variations changed regional weather. That was partly because, using only ships and buoys, they couldn't observe the genesis and growth of these changes far out in the equatorial Pacific. Topex-Poseidon and the Jason satellites have given the first frequent, global views of the full extent and life cycles of El Niño and La Niña events. Lee-Lueng Fu of JPL — project scientist for the first two ocean altimetry missions — pointed out, "Topex-Poseidon allowed us to follow their evolution and showed that these events weren't limited to just the tropics. It also gave us evidence of even longer-lasting ocean variations." One of these is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, similar to El Niño and La Niña in character but with phases lasting up to several decades.



Tides

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1198/
Quote:
A numerical model of daily global tides using sea level data from Topex-Poseidon. Credit: ESR
.

Quote:
Topex-Poseidon made the first global maps of tides, which changed scientists' understanding of how tides dissipate. The data show that a third of tidal energy dissipates in the open ocean, playing important and previously unknown roles in mixing water within the ocean.



Forecasting

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1200/
Quote:
Jason-1 data contributed to this forecast of Hurricane Rita's track across the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. The storm track appears as a black line. Jason-1 observed a tongue of very warm water (red) in the gulf, 13-23 inches (35-60 centimeters) higher than surrounding water. Ocean heat can strengthen hurricane intensity. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.


Quote:
On smaller space and time scales, satellite altimetry measurements provide information directly useful for marine storm prediction. Hurricanes are fueled by heat stored in the ocean below, and since the upper ocean expands and contracts as it heats and cools, sea level height is a marker for water temperature and heat content. So it is hardly surprising that ocean altimetry data are routinely used in forecasting hurricane strength.

In 2014, an unexpected forecasting use for altimetry data became operational. Bangladesh, whose 46-year history has encompassed death-dealing river floods, uses Jason-2 measurements of river levels in its flood forecasting and warning system. Within the first year using these data, Bangladesh's system enabled the most accurate, long-lead flood warnings ever given for that nation.


That is some precise measurements by the Jason satellites!

Cont’d
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« Last Edit: Aug 21st, 2017 at 8:24am by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #350 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 8:32am
 
In 2017 Jason 2 satellite was showing signs of damage to its on–board systems. Its orbit was then lowered by several miles and it began mapping the topography of the sea floor, sea mounts and that kind of thing. This will help improve forecasting of tides and currents.

Quote:
Satellites have already revolutionized oceanography, and soon they will do the same for hydrology -- the study of water on land. The French/U.S. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be at the forefront, carrying an innovative interferometer dubbed KaRin that marks a break with today's technologies.

dam you notes that these changes show the value the world scientific community places on the ocean altimetry program. "The measurement is so important, and the technology is fully demonstrated," he said. "In the long haul, ocean altimetry is an international commitment."


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2614/25-years-of-global-sea-level-data-and-countin...

A fascinating account.


How accurate are the Poseidon & Jason satellites?

Quote:
Abstract

Jason, the successor to the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission, has been designed to continue seamlessly the decade-long altimetric sea level record initiated by T/P. Intersatellite calibration has determined the relative bias to an accuracy of 1.6 mm rms. Tide gauge calibration of the T/P record during its original mission shows a drift of −0.1 ± 0.4 mm/year. The tide gauge calibration of 20 months of nominal Jason data indicates a drift of −5.7 ± 1.0 mm/year, which may be attributable to errors in the orbit ephemeris and the Jason Microwave Radiometer. The analysis of T/P and Jason altimeter data over the past decade has resulted in a determination of global mean sea level change of +2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year.


From NASA:
Quote:
Abstract

TOPEX/POSEIDON is the first space mission specifically designed and conducted for studying the circulation of the world's oceans. The mission is jointly conducted by the United States and France. A state-of-the-art radar altimetry system is used to measure the precise height of sea level, from which information on the ocean circulation is obtained. The satellite, launched on August 10, 1992, has been making observations of the global oceans with unprecedented accuracy since late September 1992. To meet the stringent measurement accuracy required for ocean circulation studies, a number of innovative improvements have been made to the mission design, including the first dual-frequency space-borne radar altimeter capable of retrieving the ionospheric delay of the radar signal, a three-frequency microwave radiometer for retrieving the signal delay caused by the water vapor in the troposphere, an optimal model of the Earth's gravity field and multiple satellite tracking systems for precision orbit determination. Additionally, the satellite also carries two experimental instruments to demonstrate new technologies: a single-frequency solid-state altimeter for the technology of low-power, low-weight altimeter and a Global Positioning System receiver for continuous, precise satellite tracking. The performance of the mission's measurement system has been tested by numerous verification studies. The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm. This global data set is being analyzed by an international team of 200 scientists for improved understanding of the global ocean circulation as well as the ocean tides, geodesy, and geodynamics, and ocean wind and waves. The mission is designed to last for at least 3 years with a possible extension to 6 years. The multiyear global data set will go a long way toward understanding the ocean circulation and its variability in relation to climate change. A summary of the mission's systems and their performance as well as the mission's science team is presented in the paper.



Looks like millimeter precision. These satellites really have given us a revolution in measurement and understanding of oceans and the heating of the oceans by AGW and consequent sea level rise, ENSO and the PDO, predicting the path of hurricanes and so on.

The satellites have even found sea rises and falls in the Mediterranean:

Quote:
Abstract

Using altimetry data of the Topex/Poseidon satellite available since early 1993, we show that the eastern Mediterranean sea level has been continuously rising during 1993–1999, at a rate up to 20 mm/yr southeast of Crete. Sea level rise is also observed in the Algerian-Provencal basin as well as in the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic seas. The north Ionian sea, on the other hand, shows an opposite trend, i.e., a sea level drop during the past seven years. Sea surface temperature trends are strongly correlated to sea level trends, indicating that at least part of the observed sea level change has a thermal origin. The recent Mediterranean sea level rise observed by Topex/Poseidon may be related to the warming trends reported from hydrographic cruises in the intermediate and deep waters of the eastern basin since the early 1990s, and of the western basin since the 1960s.


The Amazon basin:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1251805001016883

Yes, Lees was babbling and likely hadn’t even looked at the link I provided  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Grin Grin Grin Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Last Edit: Aug 21st, 2017 at 8:54am by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #351 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 4:48pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 21st, 2017 at 8:32am:
The performance of the mission's measurement system has been tested by numerous verification studies. The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 21st, 2017 at 8:32am:
Looks like millimeter precision.


"Basic facts about Jason-2

    Flies in a low-Earth orbit (1336 km)
    Provides global coverage between 66°N and 66°S latitude
    Has a 10-day repeat of the ground track
    Maps 95% of the world’s ice-free oceans every ten days
    Sea surface height accuracy is currently 3.4 cm (2.5 expected in the future)"

https://www.eumetsat.int/jason/print.htm

So let's see -
TOPEX - 4.7cm (47mm)
POSEIDON - 5.1cm (51mm)
JASON -2 - 3.4cm (34mm)

And that's "millimeter precision" according to JM.


But then with multiple passes they can pretend it is much more accurate. 34mm divided by 1000. Wow, how accurate is that. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #352 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 4:50pm
 
Lees babbling:

Quote:
a native resolution of 35mm



Oops!
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #353 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 4:51pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 21st, 2017 at 4:50pm:
Lees babbling:

Quote:
a native resolution of 35mm



Oops!


Oh dear out by 1mm. That's millimetre accuracy for you. Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #354 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 5:02pm
 
Quote:
The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm.

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #355 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 5:18pm
 

Quote:
This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies. Credit: NASA/SVS.



Extraordinary video of ocean currents mapped by the NASA/CNES Topex-Poseidon satellite.

This satellite and its successors have:
Quote:
. . .ushered in a new era of oceanography with the first highly accurate, global measurements of sea levels. That mission and its three successors, all named Jason, have continuously mapped global ocean currents and tides; opened our eyes to the global reach of El Niño and other climate events; created a quarter-century-long, extraordinarily precise record of global and regional sea level rise; and enabled improved forecasts of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.



Heat storage in the oceans

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1196

Quote:
More than 90 percent of the heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, which means oceans are key players in global climate. Heat causes ocean water to expand, adding to sea level rise. Measuring both long-term sea level trends and the shape of the ocean surface related to currents, Topex-Poseidon and the Jason series provide two basic ingredients for understanding the ocean's role in global climate variations.


Note the cold water south of Greenland. This is likely ice that has calved or melted from Greenland. Being fresh water it floats on top of denser saline ocean water.


El Niño, La Niña, and more

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1197/
Quote:
Among Topex-Poseidon's early achievements was recording the full extent of a record El Niño in 1997 and the succeeding La Niña in 1999. Darker colors are sea levels lower than normal, lighter and white colors are higher than normal. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.


Quite amazing.
Quote:
For decades, scientists could not predict how El Niño and other year-to-year ocean variations changed regional weather. That was partly because, using only ships and buoys, they couldn't observe the genesis and growth of these changes far out in the equatorial Pacific. Topex-Poseidon and the Jason satellites have given the first frequent, global views of the full extent and life cycles of El Niño and La Niña events. Lee-Lueng dam you of JPL — project scientist for the first two ocean altimetry missions — pointed out, "Topex-Poseidon allowed us to follow their evolution and showed that these events weren't limited to just the tropics. It also gave us evidence of even longer-lasting ocean variations." One of these is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, similar to El Niño and La Niña in character but with phases lasting up to several decades.



Tides

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1198/
Quote:
A numerical model of daily global tides using sea level data from Topex-Poseidon. Credit: ESR
.

Quote:
Topex-Poseidon made the first global maps of tides, which changed scientists' understanding of how tides dissipate. The data show that a third of tidal energy dissipates in the open ocean, playing important and previously unknown roles in mixing water within the ocean.



Forecasting

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1200/
Quote:
Jason-1 data contributed to this forecast of Hurricane Rita's track across the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. The storm track appears as a black line. Jason-1 observed a tongue of very warm water (red) in the gulf, 13-23 inches (35-60 centimeters) higher than surrounding water. Ocean heat can strengthen hurricane intensity. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.


Quote:
On smaller space and time scales, satellite altimetry measurements provide information directly useful for marine storm prediction. Hurricanes are fueled by heat stored in the ocean below, and since the upper ocean expands and contracts as it heats and cools, sea level height is a marker for water temperature and heat content. So it is hardly surprising that ocean altimetry data are routinely used in forecasting hurricane strength.

In 2014, an unexpected forecasting use for altimetry data became operational. Bangladesh, whose 46-year history has encompassed death-dealing river floods, uses Jason-2 measurements of river levels in its flood forecasting and warning system. Within the first year using these data, Bangladesh's system enabled the most accurate, long-lead flood warnings ever given for that nation.


That is some precise measurements by the Jason satellites!

Cont’d
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #356 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 5:21pm
 
In 2017 Jason 2 satellite was showing signs of damage to its on–board systems. Its orbit was then lowered by several miles and it began mapping the topography of the sea floor, sea mounts and that kind of thing. This will help improve forecasting of tides and currents.

Quote:
Satellites have already revolutionized oceanography, and soon they will do the same for hydrology -- the study of water on land. The French/U.S. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be at the forefront, carrying an innovative interferometer dubbed KaRin that marks a break with today's technologies.

dam you notes that these changes show the value the world scientific community places on the ocean altimetry program. "The measurement is so important, and the technology is fully demonstrated," he said. "In the long haul, ocean altimetry is an international commitment."


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2614/25-years-of-global-sea-level-data-and-countin...

A fascinating account.


How accurate are the Poseidon & Jason satellites?

Quote:
Abstract

Jason, the successor to the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission, has been designed to continue seamlessly the decade-long altimetric sea level record initiated by T/P. Intersatellite calibration has determined the relative bias to an accuracy of 1.6 mm rms. Tide gauge calibration of the T/P record during its original mission shows a drift of −0.1 ± 0.4 mm/year. The tide gauge calibration of 20 months of nominal Jason data indicates a drift of −5.7 ± 1.0 mm/year, which may be attributable to errors in the orbit ephemeris and the Jason Microwave Radiometer. The analysis of T/P and Jason altimeter data over the past decade has resulted in a determination of global mean sea level change of +2.8 ± 0.4 mm/year.


From NASA:
Quote:
Abstract

TOPEX/POSEIDON is the first space mission specifically designed and conducted for studying the circulation of the world's oceans. The mission is jointly conducted by the United States and France. A state-of-the-art radar altimetry system is used to measure the precise height of sea level, from which information on the ocean circulation is obtained. The satellite, launched on August 10, 1992, has been making observations of the global oceans with unprecedented accuracy since late September 1992. To meet the stringent measurement accuracy required for ocean circulation studies, a number of innovative improvements have been made to the mission design, including the first dual-frequency space-borne radar altimeter capable of retrieving the ionospheric delay of the radar signal, a three-frequency microwave radiometer for retrieving the signal delay caused by the water vapor in the troposphere, an optimal model of the Earth's gravity field and multiple satellite tracking systems for precision orbit determination. Additionally, the satellite also carries two experimental instruments to demonstrate new technologies: a single-frequency solid-state altimeter for the technology of low-power, low-weight altimeter and a Global Positioning System receiver for continuous, precise satellite tracking. The performance of the mission's measurement system has been tested by numerous verification studies. The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm. This global data set is being analyzed by an international team of 200 scientists for improved understanding of the global ocean circulation as well as the ocean tides, geodesy, and geodynamics, and ocean wind and waves. The mission is designed to last for at least 3 years with a possible extension to 6 years. The multiyear global data set will go a long way toward understanding the ocean circulation and its variability in relation to climate change. A summary of the mission's systems and their performance as well as the mission's science team is presented in the paper.



Looks like millimeter precision. These satellites really have given us a revolution in measurement and understanding of oceans and the heating of the oceans by AGW and consequent sea level rise, ENSO and the PDO, predicting the path of hurricanes and so on.

The satellites have even found sea rises and falls in the Mediterranean:

Quote:
Abstract

Using altimetry data of the Topex/Poseidon satellite available since early 1993, we show that the eastern Mediterranean sea level has been continuously rising during 1993–1999, at a rate up to 20 mm/yr southeast of Crete. Sea level rise is also observed in the Algerian-Provencal basin as well as in the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic seas. The north Ionian sea, on the other hand, shows an opposite trend, i.e., a sea level drop during the past seven years. Sea surface temperature trends are strongly correlated to sea level trends, indicating that at least part of the observed sea level change has a thermal origin. The recent Mediterranean sea level rise observed by Topex/Poseidon may be related to the warming trends reported from hydrographic cruises in the intermediate and deep waters of the eastern basin since the early 1990s, and of the western basin since the 1960s.


The Amazon basin:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1251805001016883

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #357 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 6:26pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 21st, 2017 at 5:21pm:
Looks like millimeter precision.



Regurgitation does not make it so. Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #358 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 6:28pm
 
Then stop spewing.
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #359 - Aug 21st, 2017 at 6:30pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 21st, 2017 at 5:02pm:
Quote:
The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm.


Yep. If you make the parameters wide enough even a camel will pass through he needles eye. Doesn't make it fit for purpose, but.
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