Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2017 at 10:58pm:


The East Australian Current does so in summer when it can reach speeds of 3-4 knots and sweeps hot water from the tropical north to southern regions inclusive of Tasmania (hence the recent POMS outbreak) and NZ.


Quote:


I like this quote. A lot. 

That is not conduction tho. And the heat is still in the ocean: energy cannot be created or destroyed.

And the heat is still in the ocean: energy cannot be created or destroyed.

Even the seas can’t get rid of heat much except by radiation. While molecules in a fluid move much faster than molecules in a solid the options are limited there too. Looking at heat maps you see huge swathes of ocean are pretty much the same temperature (pretty much, doubt really detailed fine–grained temperature records are available) such as “hot waters on the eastern side of the Pacific etc so conduction is out. Convection doesn’t come into it. Some heat might be lost to deep ocean waters but studies indicate there isn’t much mixing. While oceans can lose heat to the air or by condensation (latent heat) again most is directly or indirectly (air heated by the warm ocean) lost by radiation.

I know, but I was talking about conduction and as we agreed the heat still stays on the surface (ground, sea, atmosphere.) Only way the planet can lose heat is to radiate it out to space.

Researchers are using the unprecedented outbreak to study the emerging disease in real time. And they’re uncovering lessons that could buy time for health officials to mobilize a response to mosquito-borne disease before another outbreak occurs.

Beard explained that Zika infections, like almost all diseases spread by mosquitoes, hinge on two variables: infected hosts and capable carriers.

For Zika to spread, a mosquito that’s able to carry the virus has to bite a person already carrying it. The virus then needs enough time to reproduce inside the mosquito. The insect then has to bite an uninfected person. Health officials have also found that the virus can be spread sexually.

This means that people are key to spreading the disease across borders and oceans—not just mosquitoes.

“The virus was introduced by infected travelers returning to the United States from an area with active Zika transmission,” Beard said. “Because this was the first global outbreak of Zika virus, virtually everyone in the United States (and globally) had not been infected and was therefore susceptible to infection.”

Predicting human behavior is difficult, so some scientists focused on the mosquito.
The number of Aedes mosquitoes rises and falls depending on temperature and rainfall, so researchers reasoned that climate variables could portend their spread.
In a paper published earlier this month in the journal Frontiers in Microbiology, researchers asked, “Could the recent zika epidemic have been predicted?”

The short answer is no.

However, they used climate data from afflicted regions to build a model for Aedes populations. That helped researchers highlight potential infection hot spots for mosquito-borne disease transmission one to three months in advance.

“Both the mosquitos that transmit Zika and the virus itself are climate-sensitive,” said co-author Ángel Muñoz, a postdoctoral research associate in atmospheric and oceanic science at Princeton University, in an email.

“High temperatures, like the ones observed during the record-breaking years 2015 and 2016, generally increase the virus replication rates and also the speed of mosquito reproduction,” he explained. “The overall effect of high temperatures is an increase in the potential risk of transmission.”

There are three main time scales to consider when it comes to warming: annual temperature variation from factors like warming in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño years, decadal temperature swings and long-term temperature increases from global warming.
Last year, all three trends were on an upswing, leading to an unusually potent brew for diseases carried by Aedes mosquitoes.

There were also paradoxes. It rained a lot last year, a trait that would seem to drive mosquito populations and the virus. But that didn’t necessarily happen.

“We had very high rates of Zika transmission where it was very warm and very dry,” said co-author Madeleine Thomson, a senior research scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. “In poor areas, people don’t necessarily have access to good running water, so they store water, and that water storage increases [mosquito] breeding sites.”

On the other hand, periods of heavy rain created stagnant water pools that became ideal breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes.

With these factors in mind, researchers constructed a computer model and tested it to see how well its projections aligned with how the virus actually spread. They could see climate signals of an outbreak a month ahead of time and, in some geographical areas, as much as three months before it might happen.

There are a few caveats. The scientists said the model could forecast at the country level and for some large regions, but it does not provide useful enough information at smaller scales, like cities or villages.

They also note that Aedes mosquitoes also spread dengue and chikungunya, two other notorious tropical diseases, so the model effectively measures risks of all three diseases rather than any one of them alone.