Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 ... 29
Send Topic Print
Global warming, the science and the consequences (Read 29170 times)
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #300 - Aug 16th, 2017 at 4:46pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 16th, 2017 at 4:43pm:
Bringing this to the front again.



Despite the uncertainties you describe in the "data"? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #301 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am
 
Uncertainty does not mean doubt or error.

Whatever level of error/uncertainty/variance the instruments can detect a trend in temperatures and as I explain under “Thermometer” what we can see, like glaciers retreating etc bears out that temperatures are rising.

The existence of AGW is not in doubt and also supports the rising trend in temperatures.
Back to top
« Last Edit: Aug 17th, 2017 at 10:58am by Jovial Monk »  

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #302 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 3:42pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am:
Uncertainty does not mean doubt or error.



So funny. We have no comprehensive measurement of temperatures at the poles, which creates uncertainty, but there is no doubt. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am:
Whatever level of error/uncertainty/variance the instruments can detect a trend in temperatures and as I explain under “Thermometer” what we can see, like glaciers retreating etc bears out that temperatures are rising.


Yes and you can ignore historical variations because you don't have the data.

You know like old tree stumps revealed by retreating ice, old Roman mines etc, etc.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am:
The existence of AGW is not in doubt and also supports the rising trend in temperatures.



Yeah. Now quantify it and separate out the Minoan Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, Mediaeval Warm Period. And show conclusively that your suppositions are correct.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #303 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 3:42pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am:
Uncertainty does not mean doubt or error.



So funny. We have no comprehensive measurement of temperatures at the poles, which creates uncertainty, but there is no doubt. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

No doubt. If anything, the series understate the temperature increase


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am:
Whatever level of error/uncertainty/variance the instruments can detect a trend in temperatures and as I explain under “Thermometer” what we can see, like glaciers retreating etc bears out that temperatures are rising.


Yes and you can ignore historical variations because you don't have the data.

You know like old tree stumps revealed by retreating ice, old Roman mines etc, etc.

Nope, I am concentrating on the current era where AGW is increasing temperatures. Let us hope other temperature–raising events do not come back any time soon: lack of vulcanism, solar activity increase, orbital perturbations.

Yes, other periods were warmer than other periods, but not due to AGW.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 5:17am:
The existence of AGW is not in doubt and also supports the rising trend in temperatures.



Yeah. Now quantify it and separate out the Minoan Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, Mediaeval Warm Period. And show conclusively that your suppositions are correct.

Was there a big increase in anthropogenic CO2 in the Minoan etc period?
No? Just as I thought.





For someone who is happy with CO2 and temperature increases, sea level rises you seem to spend an awful time here denying the effect of CO2 on global temperatures?

Me, I think that the effects of AGW are bad enough to not want them to be there when other heating factors: solar activity picking up, orbital perturbations, decrease in vulcanism etc kick in and add onto AGW.

Not to mention ocean acidification, eating away at the base of the pyramid of life. Biut I guess you are happy with this effect of CO2 as well? Me, I am funny in that I like to think of healthy marine, lacustrine, riverine and other aquatic environments
Back to top
« Last Edit: Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:28pm by Jovial Monk »  

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #304 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:26pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
No doubt. If anything, the series understate the temperature increase



Another of you favourite subjects. Pure speculation. So scientific. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
Nope, I am concentrating on the current era where AGW is increasing temperatures.



Because you don't want to compare it to te past. This is the new earth, we are in a new paradigm. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
Yes, other periods were warmer than other periods, but not due to AGW.


What were they caused by? Not speculation please. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
Was there a big increase in anthropogenic CO2 in the Minoan etc period?
No? Just as I thought.


Can you show us a graphic of that? Remember what smoothing did to Marcott's graph and that only went back 2,000 years? The smoothing caused it to not show anything less than 300 years.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
For someone who is happy with CO2 and temperature increases, sea level rises you seem to spend an awful time here denying the effect of CO2 on global temperatures?


Nope. I am debunking your constant fear campaign. Why are you so afraid?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
ot to mention ocean acidification, eating away at the base of the pyramid of life.


Please tell us where the ocean is acid. Wink
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #305 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:26pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
No doubt. If anything, the series understate the temperature increase



Another of you favourite subjects. Pure speculation. So scientific. Wink

Well, 1, speculation on natural events leads to theories being formulated then tested etc and 2. The fact just happens to be that high latitude areas are seriously underrepresented in the temperature series. High latitudes, polar areas are where AGW is hitting hardest.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
Nope, I am concentrating on the current era where AGW is increasing temperatures.



Because you don't want to compare it to te past. This is the new earth, we are in a new paradigm. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Because the past is irrelevant: the previous “warm” periods in history did not have 410ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
Yes, other periods were warmer than other periods, but not due to AGW.


What were they caused by? Not speculation please. Wink

Speculation is all we have. I suspect: 1. low volcanic activity, 2. a more active solar state, 3. different ocean currents or possibly minor orbital perturbations that saw the northern hemisphere receive more solar radiation.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
Was there a big increase in anthropogenic CO2 in the Minoan etc period?
No? Just as I thought.


Can you show us a graphic of that? Remember what smoothing did to Marcott's graph and that only went back 2,000 years? The smoothing caused it to not show anything less than 300 years.

Did the Minoans have an industrial revolution? No? Just as I thought.
No evidence of high CO2 either in the paleoclimate record


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
For someone who is happy with CO2 and temperature increases and consequent sea level rises etc you seem to spend an awful time here denying the effect of CO2 on global temperatures?


Nope. I am debunking your constant fear campaign. Why are you so afraid?

No, you seem to be afraid of admitting that anthropogenic CO2 is changing the climate. I look at ever increasing sea levels, heat events, ever more common and destructive wildfires and think increasing CO2 in the atmosphere much more is a stupid thing to do. You, OTOH, appear terrified of leaving a post by me showing the effects of increasing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere not buried by lies, bullshit and obfuscation. So much for being comfortable with present CO2 levels.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:08pm:
ot to mention ocean acidification, eating away at the base of the pyramid of life.


Please tell us where the ocean is acid. Wink

Really, this old turkey? You want to trot this out like the most brainless little commenter on the JoNova nonsense blog? Why not say you believe in Booby’s idiotic Ice Age? Really!

Acidification, making more acid, less alkaline.


This was all dead easy. Wassamatter Lees, you are maybe not as comfortable as all that in the face of increasing CO2 levels? Well, don’t relax, the really powerful GHGs methane and nitrous oxide are rapidly increasing in concentration.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #306 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 6:45pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
Well, 1, speculation on natural events leads to theories being formulated then tested etc and 2. The fact just happens to be that high latitude areas are seriously underrepresented in the temperature series. High latitudes, polar areas are where AGW is hitting hardest.



Now show the testing. Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
Because the past is irrelevant: the previous “warm” periods in history did not have 410ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.



Again Speculation. Please show the paper with the appropriate error bars, smoothings and proof that these were taken into account. What you have said is merely an assertion without proof.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
Speculation is all we have. I suspect: 1. low volcanic activity, 2. a more active solar state, 3. different ocean currents or possibly minor orbital perturbations that saw the northern hemisphere receive more solar radiation.



So no FACTS. Goodo. Not scientific but good try.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
Did the Minoans have an industrial revolution? No? Just as I thought.
No evidence of high CO2 either in the paleoclimate record


But you forget the time frame and the necessary smoothing to fit the data.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
I look at ever increasing sea levels,


AH, the problematic sea levels.

Seeing as you are moving to Tassie have a look at the tide marking at Port Arthur.

" However, the man responsible for putting the mark there, explorer Sir James Clark Ross stated explicitly and

several times in his 1846 book [3] that the mark was placed at MSL (as he estimated it to be), not at a point 44.5cm above, near the high tide point, as claimed by the study. Other evidence surrounding the original placing of the benchmark is less clear, but we do have one positive measurement of where the benchmark stood relative to sea level taken in 1888 by the then Government meteorologist, Commander J. Shortt R.N.  He found the mark to be 34cm above sea level - only 2½ cm different to its current position [7] [5]."

"This suggests a sea level rise since 1888 of only 2½cm, not 13cm as claimed by the study.  "

http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/
Dated Feb 2003.
Ref  - [3] Ross, Sir J.C., (1847), "A Voyage of Discovery and Research in the Southern and Antarctic Regions, During
     the Years 1839-43", John Murray, London, pp.22-32.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
heat events,


Please show the paper that explicitly labels increased heat events.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
ever more common and destructive wildfires


Citation needed on them being more common and destructive. Apart from dollar amounts as prices go up.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
Really, this old turkey? You want to trot this out like the most brainless little commenter on the JoNova nonsense blog? Why not say you believe in Booby’s idiotic Ice Age? Really!

Acidification, making more acid, less alkaline.



Wrong. Acidification as used by you maybe. You should read up on titration. Acidification is making a base acidic, not less alkaline,

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
This was all dead easy.



Everything is dead easy if you are brain dead. Wink
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #307 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 7:34pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 4:47pm:
Because the past is irrelevant: the previous “warm” periods in history did not have 410ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.


I fund this -

...

Very spotty. But stomata data differs from ice core significantly.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #308 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 8:59pm
 
How much did it cost you to “fund” that?
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #309 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:07pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 8:59pm:
How much did it cost you to “fund” that?


Five minutes on Google. You should try learning what you think you know.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #310 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:13pm
 
Better go “fund” a few more cases.   Wink
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #311 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:20pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:13pm:
Better go “fund” a few more cases.   Wink


Sorry. You wouldn't be on my list. You don't look at the science if it disagrees with your view.

Did you look at the list of studies in the top right corner or dismiss it it out of hand? I suspect the latter. Wink
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #312 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:25pm
 
Come on, one case and you expect me to believe CO2 concentrations were 410ppm  whenever that case was? CO2 hasn’t been near 410ppm for a VERY long time.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #313 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:32pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:25pm:
Come on, one case and you expect me to believe CO2 concentrations were 410ppm  whenever that case was? CO2 hasn’t been near 410ppm for a VERY long time.


See I told you have cognitive dissonance. Five papers. And who said they were 410ppm? I said they disagree strongly with ice core data. I also said the data was spotty.

What can't be said is that we haven't had 410ppm for " a VERY long time". BTW - How long is a VERY long time. It is certainly not scientific usage. Wink
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #314 - Aug 17th, 2017 at 9:47pm
 
A very long time. Not going to bother checking exactly how long because you will just cover it up.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 ... 29
Send Topic Print