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Global warming, the science and the consequences (Read 29160 times)
Grendel
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #255 - Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:38pm
 
lee wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 1:14pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 1:01pm:
Changing to new varieties



But you said -

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 11:05am:
Spanish wine industry turning to old grape varieties


So old is new again. Hallelujah and pass the port.

I hear the Romans were growing grapes in Britain during the warmer times back then...
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #256 - Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:42pm
 
TheFunPolice wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:08pm:
I'm saying the Arctic sea ice has only really got bad in the last ten years!


Unlike when they sailed across the Arctic in 1878 or 1906.

Or the 1920-40's
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #257 - Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:46pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:38pm:
I hear the Romans were growing grapes in Britain during the warmer times back then...



And growing olives in Northern Italy and Germany - According to one Michael E Mann.

"Grapes were grown in England several hundred kilometers
north  of  their  current  limits  of  growth,  and  subtropical
flora  such  as  fig  trees  and  olive  trees  grew  in  regions
of  Europe  (northern  Italy  and  parts  of  Germany)  well
north  of  their  current  range.  Geological  evidence  indi-
cates  that  mountain  glaciers  throughout  Europe  retreated
substantially at this time, relative to the glacial advances of
later  centuries  (Grove  and  Switsur,  1994).  A  host  of  his-
torical  documentary  proxy  information  such  as  records  of
frost dates, freezing of water bodies, duration of snowcover,
and  phenological  evidence  (e.g.,  the  dates  of  flowering
of  plants)  indicates  that  severe  winters  were  less  frequent
and  less  extreme  at  times  during  the  period  from  about
900 – 1300 AD in central Europe."

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/medclimopt.pdf
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Grendel
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #258 - Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:46pm
 
Quote:
Tree-rings prove climate was WARMER in Roman and Medieval times than it is now - and world has been cooling for 2,000 years

By Science Reporter

Study of semi-fossilised trees gives accurate climate reading back to 138BC.  The world was warmer in Roman and Medieval times than it is now

Rings in fossilised pine trees have proven that the world was much warmer than previously thought - with measurements dating back to 138BC

How did the Romans grow grapes in northern England? Perhaps because it was warmer than we thought.

A study suggests the Britain of 2,000 years ago experienced a lengthy period of hotter summers than today.

German researchers used data from tree rings – a key indicator of past climate – to claim the world has been on a ‘long-term cooling trend’ for two millennia until the global warming of the twentieth century.

This cooling was punctuated by a couple of warm spells.

These are the Medieval Warm Period, which is well known, but also a period during the toga-wearing Roman times when temperatures were apparently 1 deg C warmer than now.

They say the very warm period during the years 21 to 50AD has been underestimated by climate scientists.

Lead author Professor Dr Jan Esper of Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz said: ‘We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low.

‘This figure we calculated may not seem particularly significant, however it is not negligible when compared to global warming, which up to now has been less than 1 deg C.’

In general the scientists found a slow cooling of 0.6C over 2,000 years, which they attributed to changes in the Earth’s orbit which took it further away from the Sun.

The study is published in Nature Climate Change.


It is based on measurements stretching back to 138BC.

The finding may force scientists to rethink current theories of the impact of global warming

Professor Esper's group at the Institute of Geography at JGU used tree-ring density measurements from sub-fossil pine trees originating from Finnish Lapland to produce a reconstruction reaching back to 138 BC.

In so doing, the researchers have been able for the first time to precisely demonstrate that the long-term trend over the past two millennia has been towards climatic cooling.

Professor Esper said: 'Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy, as they will influence the way today's climate changes are seen in context of historical warm periods.’

The annual growth rings in trees are the most important witnesses over the past 1,000 to 2,000 years as they indicate how warm and cool past climate conditions were.

Researchers from Germany, Finland, Scotland, and Switzerland examined tree-ring density profiles.

In the cold environment of Finnish Lapland, trees often collapse into one of the numerous lakes, where they remain well preserved for thousands of years.

Global cooling: It is the first time that researchers have been able to accurately measure trends in global temperature over the last two millennia

The annual growth rings in trees are the most important witnesses over the past 1,000 to 2,000 years as they indicate how warm and cool past climate conditions were

The density measurements correlate closely with the summer temperatures in this area on the edge of the Nordic taiga; the researchers were thus able to create a temperature reconstruction of unprecedented quality.

The reconstruction provides a high-resolution representation of temperature patterns in the Roman and Medieval Warm periods, but also shows the cold phases that occurred during the Migration Period and the later Little Ice Age.

In addition to the cold and warm phases, the new climate curve also exhibits a phenomenon that was not expected in this form.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html#ixzz4nyKQ5w7b
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #259 - Jul 27th, 2017 at 7:43pm
 
Gas molecules made of three or more atoms are “greenhouse gases” that are partially opaque to infrared radiation. IR has a wavelength a bit longer than light. We know the band of visible light can be subdivided into 7 sub-bands corresponding to the colors red, orange, yellow. . .violet and IR also stretches out over a band of wavelengths.

Radiation can be thought of as little packets of electromagnetic energy called a photon, or you can think of it as a ray but I will use the term photon. Now I will just use CO2 but CH4 and N2O etc works the same way. Let us write CO2 as OCO and the electric charge (density in the electron cloud) is distributed between the CO and the OC dipoles.

In the Relationships board, LarsenC thread the second post describes all this in more detail. Imagine an OCO molecule floating around when it absorbs (gets hit by) a photon at the OC or CO dipole. The OCO molecule is “excited” or made more energetic, spinning/vibrating at a more rapid rate but it cannot hold on to the energy and re-emits the photon a fraction of a second after absorbing it. By this time the dipole that re-emits the photon may be facing any direction and the IR photon can be re-emitted as likely downwards as upwards.

The photon may be absorbed by another and another molecule of one of the GHGs present in the atmosphere. Whatever IR got re-emitted downwards reaches the surface of the globe, strikes a molecule on the surface which is excited but being a solid or liquid strikes adjacent molecules and the energy of the photon is absorbed. The surface just got heated by the amount of the energy of that photon.

Now, you are thinking “this is rubbish, don’t believe it!” but studies of the IR spectrum from the ground show it receives more IR over time while studies from satellites show less IR reaching satellites over time. Over time more and more GHGs are present in the atmosphere, IR photons are absorbed/emitted more and more and more and more IR is absorbed by the surface.

Look at the Harries diagram. It shows that over a period of time less and less IR reaches as high as the satellite (the brightness temperature or blackbody temperature measured as IR brightness) and it even shows the two bands, the OC and the CO of CO2.

Watervapor, which we can write as H–O–H, is a three atom gaseous molecule and so, yup, is a GHG. It is usually called a reinforcer because, unlike CO2, CH4 etc its concentration varies as evaporation-precipitation (rain etc)–evaporation etc. CH4 is relatively shortlived but is much more constant than H2O, taking decades before it is oxidised to other compounds.

The theory and observation fits very well. Only Booby might say the global temperatures are declining but we know they are not. If 2018 is an El Nino year god knows what temperatures we see.
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #260 - Jul 27th, 2017 at 7:58pm
 
A three-peat. A new world record. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #261 - Jul 28th, 2017 at 2:28pm
 
lee wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:42pm:
TheFunPolice wrote on Jul 27th, 2017 at 6:08pm:
I'm saying the Arctic sea ice has only really got bad in the last ten years!


Unlike when they sailed across the Arctic in 1878 or 1906.

Or the 1920-40's

Which route did they take or should we all just get really vague and fall asleep at the snap of a finger like daddy used to make you try and do?
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Grendel
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #262 - Jul 28th, 2017 at 4:01pm
 
Quote:
Only Booby might say the global temperatures are declining but we know they are not. If 2018 is an El Nino year god knows what temperatures we see.

Yet YOU continually say YOU and YOUR fellow deniers know...  their models don't.  Their fudged records and fraudulent behaviour prove they don't. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #263 - Jul 28th, 2017 at 6:53pm
 
TheFunPolice wrote on Jul 28th, 2017 at 2:28pm:
Which route did they take or should we all just get really vague



What difference does it matter? Are there suddenly two, three or more Arctics that are melting more than normal and allowing ship passage?

"Gjøa was the first vessel to transit the Northwest Passage. With a crew of six, Roald Amundsen traversed the passage in a three-year journey, finishing in 1906."

" He had a 13 horsepower single-screw marine paraffin motor installed (she had hitherto been propelled only by sail, and had proved to be sluggish). "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gj%C3%B8a

13 horses? Such power. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #264 - Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:06pm
 
Quote:
Ship sets record for earliest crossing of notorious Northwest Passage through Arctic



The melting of sea ice means a journey that claims the lives of numerous explorers in the past is getting easier and easier


Easier and easier. No longer takes three years?

Quote:
A Finnish ship has set the record for the earliest crossing of the notorious Northwest Passage, the Arctic route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Icebreaker MSV Nordica was at sea for 24 days, travelling more than 6,214 miles to make the record.

It arrived at Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, on 29 July, having set off from Vancouver, Canada on 5 July, the Associated Press reported.

The previous record was set by Canadian Coast Guard ship Louis L. St-Laurent in 2008. It arrived in Point Barrow, off Alaska, on 30 July, having also set off on 5 July from Newfoundland.

But the route the Nordica travelled, in the opposite direction, was even longer.

Passengers on board the Nordica reported seeing sea birds, seals, whales and a polar bear.

Ships have been able to make the journey earlier in recent years because of a reduction in Arctic sea ice, which scientists believe is one of the clearest symptoms of climate change on the planet.

Icebreaker-type ships tend to be the only vessels which can make the journey, with conventional crafts struggling in the Arctic environment.


Except a huge flipping cruise ship made the journey through the North West Passage last year.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/northwest-passage-record-arctic...

Earlier and earlier, easier and easier. Doesn’t sound like an ice age to me!
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Grendel
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #265 - Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:26pm
 
Really?
Do you actually know what you are on about?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #266 - Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:34pm
 
Yes, the extent and volume of ice in the Arctic is shrinking.
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #267 - Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:36pm
 
lee wrote on Jul 28th, 2017 at 6:53pm:
TheFunPolice wrote on Jul 28th, 2017 at 2:28pm:
Which route did they take or should we all just get really vague



What difference does it matter? Are there suddenly two, three or more Arctics that are melting more than normal and allowing ship passage?

"Gjøa was the first vessel to transit the Northwest Passage. With a crew of six, Roald Amundsen traversed the passage in a three-year journey, finishing in 1906."

" He had a 13 horsepower single-screw marine paraffin motor installed (she had hitherto been propelled only by sail, and had proved to be sluggish). "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gj%C3%B8a

13 horses? Such power. Grin Grin Grin Grin

How long did it take?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #268 - Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:38pm
 
It wouldn’t take 3 years now even for a 13HP ship.
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #269 - Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:41pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 31st, 2017 at 1:38pm:
It wouldn’t take 3 years now even for a 13HP ship.

Lees just getting paid to sell jevons paradox yet doesn't realise it applies to all resources  Grin
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