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Global warming, the science and the consequences (Read 29157 times)
lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #90 - May 20th, 2017 at 4:35pm
 
Yes. More alarmist crap from the Garudian. Grin Grin ;

Jovial Monk wrote on May 20th, 2017 at 2:33pm:
at the end of the world’s hottest ever recorded year l


You mean the world's average temperature; first calculated in 1986. Not from readings, because Sea Surface Temperatures were not well sampled.

Sea Surface temperatures were taken from ships, which of course sailed defined routes. Therefore vast areas of the ocean were not sampled at all, and others rarely.

But the alarmists don't want to admit that.  According to them everything is hunky-dory.

They don't want to admit climate changes. It should be static at some "goldilocks temperature". Don't ask then what that is; they don't know.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #91 - May 20th, 2017 at 4:43pm
 
Lees: blah blah blah oh Mummy, don’t let global temperatures increase, I am frightened.
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #92 - May 20th, 2017 at 5:06pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 20th, 2017 at 4:43pm:
Lees: blah blah blah oh Mummy, don’t let global temperatures increase, I am frightened.



I see you still haven't got over your fear. It's all right possum. Wink
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #93 - May 21st, 2017 at 11:38am
 
...

Quote:
NASA has come out with its monthly analysis of global temperatures, and the
results are notable, if not terribly surprising: Last month was the second warmest April in 137 years of modern record-keeping.

Last month beat out April of 2010 by just a small amount to achieve that distinction, according to the analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was second only to April 2016, which shattered the record for warmest year, thanks in part to a boost from El Niño.

Temperatures have moderated just a bit from the astonishing highs of 2016, as you can see in the following graph charting how the global average surface temperature has varied from that of the pre- and early-industrial time of 1880 to 1920:


...

Quote:
ImaGeo
« Why you should take hyperventilating headlines about CO2 with a grain of salt — but still be quite concerned Polar eye candy: check out this spectacular aerial photo of a Greenlandic fjord from NASA’s Operation IceBridge »
The heat goes on: This past April was second warmest in records dating back to 1880 — as were February and March
By Tom Yulsman | May 17, 2017 1:41 pm
19
But with the monster El Niño of 2015/2016 far back in the rear-view mirror, temperatures in 2017 are running somewhat lower than last year

A map of temperature anomalies in April 2017 shows that central and northeast Asia, as well as Alaska, were much warmer than the 1951-1980 base period. (Source: NASA GISS)

NASA has come out with its monthly analysis of global temperatures, and the results are notable, if not terribly surprising: Last month was the second warmest April in 137 years of modern record-keeping.

Last month beat out April of 2010 by just a small amount to achieve that distinction, according to the analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was second only to April 2016, which shattered the record for warmest year, thanks in part to a boost from El Niño.

Temperatures have moderated just a bit from the astonishing highs of 2016, as you can see in the following graph charting how the global average surface temperature has varied from that of the pre- and early-industrial time of 1880 to 1920:

This graph shows how global temperatures have changed from pre- and early-industrial times. (Source: NASA GISS)
Source: NASA GISS
The graph, which takes us through April, shows the 2016 peak and subsequent modest fall-off so far this year. Also noteworthy is the pattern. There are obvious short-term variations, including some periods of slower warming. But overall, since 1970 the globe has experienced an unambiguous long-term warming trend.

Although we’re clearly off last year’s peak, the globe continues to be plenty warm. January was the third-warmest such month on record. Since then, February and March, like last month, were second warmest respectively. . . .

The most intense warmth anomalies during April were in the high north, as well as central Asia. Alaska was particularly warm last month (following a relatively cool March), as were Russia’s Arctic reaches.

Overall, the Arctic continues to warm at twice the average rate of the rest of the globe. In fact, during 2016, land areas of the Arctic experienced the highest average temperature in the observational record, with a 6.3 degree Fahrenheit increase since 1900, according to the NOAA-sponsored Arctic Report Card.

“Rarely have we seen the Arctic show a clearer, stronger or more pronounced signal of persistent warming and its cascading effects on the environment,” said Jeremy Mathis, director of NOAA’s Arctic Research Program, quoted in a NOAA news release.



http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2017/05/17/april-was-second-warmest-on-...

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« Last Edit: May 21st, 2017 at 11:50am by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #94 - May 21st, 2017 at 12:42pm
 
Wow. Look at all that warming since 1951 - 1981. I wonder how they got the data for the Arctic and Antarctic back then? No satellites, sparsely populated, few records.

How much homogenisation? What grid size for the data?

Look how much Australia has warmed in that period.  Wink
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« Last Edit: May 21st, 2017 at 12:49pm by lee »  
 
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #95 - May 31st, 2017 at 4:52pm
 
[quote][b][size=18]Nitrous Oxide Poses Fresh Threat to the Arctic[/size][/b]

[size=14]As permafrost thaws, emissions of this potent greenhouse gas increase[/size]

The thawing of the Arctic permafrost is releasing a potent greenhouse gas into the atmosphere that has rarely been considered as a threat despite its tremendous potential to drive global warming.

Nitrous oxide, or N2O, is more of a threat to the Arctic and global warming than previously believed, according to a study published yesterday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Currently, it's not usually considered when researchers create models to predict the future warming of the region, said Carolina Voigt, a researcher at the University of Eastern Finland and a lead author of the study.

"It is roughly 300 times more powerful in warming the climate than CO2 [carbon dioxide] on a 100-year time horizon, so it is a strong greenhouse gas, and even small amounts emitted can add to the total greenhouse gas budget of the area," she said.[/quote]

So N2O is worse than methane in terms of AGW, methane is like 35 times more powerful than CO2 but not as long lasting.

[quote]Scientists are still studying some of the natural sources of carbon dioxide. The Arctic's permafrost, which is steadily thawing as the region keeps getting warmer, is also releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, creating a feedback loop of transformation that drives further warming.

Currently, the world's largest source of terrestrial nitrous oxide is the tropical forest. However, the study found that emissions of nitrous oxide from a typical Arctic landscape, permafrost peatlands with little vegetation cover, could equal those from the tropics. About a quarter of the Arctic is permafrost peatlands, meaning the area has tremendous potential to be a major source of nitrous oxide release, researchers found.

Researchers have also begun to explore sources of methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and how that drives climate change. But little research has been conducted on nitrous oxide as a source of warming, Voigt said. The study shows more research is needed to understand what is happening to the Arctic, she said.[/quote]

We certainly would not want huge releases of N2O and CH4!

[url]https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nitrous-oxide-poses-fresh-threat-to-the-arctic/[/url]
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« Last Edit: May 31st, 2017 at 5:47pm by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #96 - May 31st, 2017 at 6:18pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 4:52pm:
methane is like 35 times more powerful than CO2 but not as long lasting.



Back to 35 from 100, or  80 but still above 20.

But then it is measured in ppb; so its effect is really, really small.
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #97 - May 31st, 2017 at 6:24pm
 
lee wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 6:18pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 4:52pm:
methane is like 35 times more powerful than CO2 but not as long lasting.



Back to 35 from 100, or  80 but still above 20.

But then it is measured in ppb; so its effect is really, really small.

Methane is basically exactly counteracted by the fact it is measured in ppb, yes! It all breaks down to CO2 anyway so the whole methane argument is a red herring: presuming it's rate of release is constant of course  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Roll Eyes

But we all know this so it's more wasted internet address space: we've all done the circle party a million times over this exact issue!
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #98 - May 31st, 2017 at 6:42pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 21st, 2017 at 11:38am:
from the astonishing highs of 2016,



Ooh Astonishing. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #99 - May 31st, 2017 at 6:46pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 21st, 2017 at 11:38am:
In fact, during 2016, land areas of the Arctic experienced the highest average temperature in the observational record, with a 6.3 degree Fahrenheit increase since 1900, according to the NOAA-sponsored Arctic Report Card.


So tell me how many observational records were available in 1900?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #100 - May 31st, 2017 at 7:15pm
 
On land? Quite a few I suppose.
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #101 - May 31st, 2017 at 7:26pm
 
lee wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 6:42pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 21st, 2017 at 11:38am:
from the astonishing highs of 2016,



Ooh Astonishing. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

lee wants to talk about colourful language: from the crowd who voted for copper internet no less  Grin Grin Grin Grin
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #102 - May 31st, 2017 at 7:40pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 7:15pm:
On land? Quite a few I suppose.


oh dear.
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #103 - May 31st, 2017 at 7:54pm
 
lee wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 7:40pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 31st, 2017 at 7:15pm:
On land? Quite a few I suppose.


oh dear.

the semantic circle game is baaaaaaaaa-aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkk  Roll Eyes
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lee
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Re: Global warming, the science and the consequences
Reply #104 - May 31st, 2017 at 8:22pm
 
Well let's see.

"The development of Russian Arctic stations carrying out meteorological observations began around 1923 (Taracouzio 1938). "

http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndHistory%201900-1949.htm#1923:%20Establishme...

Well that certainly cuts out a large part of the Arctic.

"Fig.1. Location of current manual weather stations in the Norwegian Arctic. Bjørnøya: elevation 16m a.s.l., start of measurements1920. Hopen: 6 m a.s.l., 1944. Hornsund (Polish): 10 m a.s.l., 1978. Sveagruva 9 m a.s.l., 1978.
Barentsburg (Russian): 70 m a.s.l., 1933. Svalbard Airport:
28 m a.s.l., 1975. Ny-Ålesund: 8 m a.s.l., 1974. Jan Mayen: 10 m a.s.l., 1921."

"Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic:
overview and novel analyses
Eirik J. Førland & Inger Hanssen-Bauer"

"Substantial variations in temperature and precipitation have been observed since the first permanent weather station was established in the Svalbard region in 1911."

" The annual temperature has increased in Svalbard and Jan Mayen during the latest decades, but the present level is still lower than in the 1930s"

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-8369.2003.tb00102.x/full

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2011/893790/

Have you got anything back to 1900?
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« Last Edit: May 31st, 2017 at 8:35pm by lee »  
 
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