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Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 15458 times)
Jovial Monk
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Anthropogenic Global Warming
Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am
 
Is happening.

Yes, AGW is happening and that can be shown by spectrometer readings—no models or theories needed.

See: http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1464603948/1856#1856

That settled, what problems is AGW causing?

Low global oceanic oxygen is one. We know the oceans are absorbing a lot of the CO2 we emit and this causes problems for organisms to create their calcium carbonate shells, especially by the plankton that is the base of the food pyramid in our seas—ocean acidification, which means our oceans are getting less alkaline and so more acid, not that our oceans are becoming acidic. Mention that because people get that term wrong.

Lack of global oxygen is another.

Quote:
A large research synthesis, published in one of the world’s most influential scientific journals, has detected a decline in the amount of dissolved oxygen in oceans around the world — a long-predicted result of climate change that could have severe consequences for marine organisms if it continues.

The paper, published Wednesday in the journal Nature by oceanographer Sunke Schmidtko and two colleagues from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, found a decline of more than 2 percent in ocean oxygen content worldwide between 1960 and 2010. The loss, however, showed up in some ocean basins more than others. The largest overall volume of oxygen was lost in the largest ocean — the Pacific — but as a percentage, the decline was sharpest in the Arctic Ocean, a region facing Earth’s most stark climate change.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/15/its-officia...

If you think it odd that the ocean can absorb more CO2 but lose oxygen content then remember that there is a lot more O2 than CO2 in our seas: 18% oxygen v .04% CO2 in the atmosphere

Quote:
Ocean oxygen is vital to marine organisms, but also very delicate — unlike in the atmosphere, where gases mix together thoroughly, in the ocean that is far harder to accomplish, Schmidtko explained. Moreover, he added, just 1 percent of all the Earth’s available oxygen mixes into the ocean; the vast majority remains in the air.


So any loss of oxygen will be hard to replace. And the loss of oxygen is not evenly spread in depth:

Quote:
“When the upper ocean warms, less water gets down deep, and so therefore, the oxygen supply to the deep ocean is shut down or significantly reduced,” Schmidtko said.


Oxygen enters the sea directly from the atmosphere and by photosynthesis by ocean plants and algae, including the algae living symbiotically with coral.

Quote:
The new study represents a synthesis of literally “millions” of separate ocean measurements over time, according to GEOMAR. The authors then used interpolation techniques for areas of the ocean where they lacked measurements.

The resulting study attributes less than 15 percent of the total oxygen loss to sheer warmer temperatures, which create less solubility. The rest was attributed to other factors, such as a lack of mixing.


Quote:
“Natural variations have obscured our ability to definitively detect this signal in observations,” Long said in an email. “In this study, however, Schmidtko et al. synthesize all available observations to show a global-scale decline in oxygen that conforms to the patterns we expect from human-driven climate warming. They do not make a definitive attribution statement, but the data are consistent with and strongly suggestive of human-driven warming as a root cause of the oxygen decline.

“It is alarming to see this signal begin to emerge clearly in the observational data,” he added.

“Schmidtko and colleagues’ findings should ring yet more alarm bells about the consequences of global warming,” added Denis Gilbert, a researcher with the Maurice Lamontagne Institute at Fisheries and Oceans Canada in Quebec, in an accompanying commentary on the study also published in Nature.


It gets worse:
Quote:
Because oxygen in the global ocean is not evenly distributed, the 2 percent overall decline means there is a much larger decline in some areas of the ocean than others.

Moreover, the ocean already contains so-called oxygen minimum zones, generally found in the middle depths. The great fear is that their expansion upward, into habitats where fish and other organism thrive, will reduce the available habitat for marine organisms.

In shallower waters, meanwhile, the development of ocean “hypoxic” areas, or so-called “dead zones,” may also be influenced in part by declining oxygen content overall.

On top of all of that, declining ocean oxygen can also worsen global warming in a feedback loop. In or near low oxygen areas of the oceans, microorganisms tend to produce nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, Gilbert writes. Thus the new study “implies that production rates and efflux to the atmosphere of nitrous oxide … will probably have increased.”


Positive feedback loops are going to see a jump in atmospheric methane and CO2 and now we see nitrous oxide, a minor greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, is also increasing in the atmosphere. Not good.

cont’d
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« Last Edit: Feb 22nd, 2017 at 8:07am by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #1 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:57am
 
cont’d

Quote:
The new study underscores once again that some of the most profound consequences of climate change are occurring in the oceans, rather than on land. In recent years, incursions of warm ocean water have caused large die-offs of coral reefs, and in some cases, kelp forests as well. Meanwhile, warmer oceans have also begun to destabilize glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, and as they melt, these glaciers freshen the ocean waters and potentially change the nature of their circulation.


I have been reading in various papers that kelp forests are disappearing from large swathes of offshore seas. Consequences for the survival of species that grow to maturity in the cover of these forests (and I have seen the other nursery of the sea, mangrove swamps are starting to die too.) Not good for people relying on marine fish for their protein.
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #2 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 6:37am
 
the Ocean stole my Global Warming ..  Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #3 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 6:43am
 
Antarctic sea ice extent diminishing:

...

Quote:
Floating sea ice in another cold place, the Arctic, is clearly shrinking, as are Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, and we don’t fully understand all the drivers behind the vast and complex Antarctic sea ice system. So don’t leap to the conclusion that odd behavior in floating Antarctic ice, which indeed has been growing slightly in recent years, undermines climate concerns.

Now, though, the argument for doubters just got even more complicated. After seeing a record high for total extent in the year 2014, Antarctic sea ice had been running very low in late 2016 and early 2017. And now, as of data recorded on Monday and Tuesday by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the extent of Antarctic sea ice now appears to have hit a record low (although scientists still have to confirm this and have not made an official announcement yet).

It’s summer in Antarctica right now, and floating sea ice on Monday only covered 2.287 million square kilometers, according to “near-real-time data” from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. If that’s correct, that would barely edge out the previous record low of 2.290 million square kilometers on Feb. 27, 1997. The records go back to 1979.


Growing now shrinking. Must be caused by something.

Quote:
“Record low sea ice extent in the Arctic has, in a sense, become old news,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “But now the Antarctic is getting into the act.  There are certainly many questions out there as to why Antarctic sea ice is also at a record low, but we can’t deny the reality that things are changing and they are changing fast.”


This is a scientist talking. No dogmatic statements, questions and talking about things changing and changing fast—obviously the right questions need to be asked and answers found to satisfactorily answer those questions, the framing of hypotheses etc.

Quote:
Sea ice is almost completely absent right now along the coast of West Antarctica in particular, a region where huge and fast-retreating glaciers have raised major concerns about potential sea-level rise. It’s unclear if lack of sea ice in the area might also signal that the oceans are having an effect on the continent’s marine-based glaciers.


...

As we can see, the ice loss is not uniform.

Quote:
Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., has published research suggesting that floating Antarctic ice is actually controlled in part by the state of the distant Pacific Ocean, whose influence on wind and weather patterns ultimately stretches all the way down to the Antarctic.

That study focused on a natural climate wobble called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO, whose negative phase is one in which heat ends up getting buried in the Pacific Ocean, and whose positive phase unleashes it. The IPO was in a negative phase through much of the 2000s, but it may now be shifting back, Meehl says. And that could be playing a role in sea ice.


“could be playing a role” again, questions not dogmatic statements. Words of a scientist, not a paid propagandist.

Quote:
. . .we can’t say that Antarctic sea ice will stay at this low extent indefinitely. But the evidence from IPO connections is pointing in the right direction for a possible decadal trend toward reduced sea ice extent.”


The WP article ends with:
Quote:
In the end, since Antarctic sea ice was previously trending upward, the sudden reversal shouldn’t be a reason to turn on a dime and suggest that the ice is now declining — yet. Instead, it further underscores that we don’t fully understand what’s going on with this system. Which is precisely why it’s so dangerous to cite Antarctic ice to undermine the overwhelming evidence of climate change elsewhere.


Yup.
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« Last Edit: Feb 22nd, 2017 at 7:03am by Jovial Monk »  

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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #4 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 6:52am
 
thats the thing with you GW loons...  Cheesy

its not only that the information (that has been adjusted) that you are spreading is Fake Science... its also what they don't report on..

like record low temperatures and rain across australia, tassie, New Zealand..

shhhhh... keep all of that quiet.. wink wink

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1487623939/0#8
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #5 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 7:10am
 
Anybody has questions I will try to answer them.

Idiots will be ignored.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #6 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:42am
 
Quote:
Newly published research shows regional climate variability caused an "unusual" period in which some of New Zealand's glaciers grew bigger, while glaciers worldwide were shrinking.

The research, carried out by scientists from Victoria University of Wellington and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), was published today in scientific journal Nature Communications.

At least 58 New Zealand glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, with Franz Josef Glacier (Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere) advancing nearly continuously during this time.

"Glaciers advancing is very unusual—especially in this period when the vast majority of glaciers worldwide shrank in size as a result of our warming world," says lead-author Associate Professor Andrew Mackintosh from Victoria's Antarctic Research Centre.

"This anomaly hadn't been satisfactorily explained, so this physics-based study used computer models for the first time to look into it in detail.

"We found that lower temperature caused the glaciers to advance, rather than increased precipitation as previously thought. These periods of reduced temperature affected the entire New Zealand region, and they were significant enough for the glaciers to re-advance in spite of human-induced climate change."

Associate Professor Mackintosh says the climate variability, which includes the cooler years, still reflects a climate that's been modified by humans.

"It may seem unusual—this regional cooling during a period of overall global warming—but it's still consistent with human-induced climate change. The temperature changes were a result of variability in the climate system that's specific to New Zealand.
"New Zealand sits in a region where there's significant variability in the oceans and the atmosphere—much more than many parts of the world. The climate variability that we identified was also responsible for changes in the Antarctic ice sheet and sea ice during this period."


https://phys.org/news/2017-02-zealand-unusual-glaciers.html

In the article on the Antarctic see ice extent above we saw the changes to the Antarctic sea ice and temperatures. Not unreasonable those changes would impact NZ.
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #7 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:44am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Is happening.


That's the theory.

There's no proof though.

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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #8 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:50am
 
I believe in AGW but it's not going to cause end times like the  merchants of panic believe.

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IBI
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #9 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:57am
 
Gordon wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:50am:
I believe in AGW but it's not going to cause end times like the  merchants of panic believe.


It will cause hotter heatwaves, shorter cold periods and the sea level rises caused by it will worsen flooding. Wildfires (Australia, Chile, the US and Russia are countries I have seen mentioned in this regard) will start earlier in spring and get bigger, wilder and more destructive—things can be done about this, e.g. design rules for communities and individual housing to make them more bushfire resistant.

I don’t believe in panicking, that only results in destruction. Face the facts and do what you can do about it, yourself personally and by getting things like ETSs implemented. Even the Libs will have to implement an ETS or a scheme dealing with emissions intensity.
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #10 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 11:05am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Yes, AGW is happening and that can be shown by spectrometer readings—no models or theories needed.


Spectrometers show global warming? Cheesy Cheesy Because CO2 is NOT a well-mixed gas it does not show effects of elevation on CO2.

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
We know the oceans are absorbing a lot of the CO2 we emi



But don't warmer oceans outgas CO2? WinkJovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
this causes problems for organisms to create their calcium carbonate shells, especially by the plankton that is the base of the food pyramid in our seas—ocean acidification



Except for areas where it doesn't. Why are there perfectly good shells near CO2 vents?

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
A large research synthesis, published in one of the world’s most influential scientific journals, has detected a decline in the amount of dissolved oxygen in oceans around the world — a long-predicted result of climate change that could have severe consequences for marine organisms if it continues.



from the paper -

"Regional observational data indicate a continuous decrease in oceanic dissolved oxygen concentrations in most regions of the global ocean with an increase reported in a few limited areas, varying by study"

You do understand synthesis; don't you? Shouldn't AGW affect all oceans the same way? Are oceans homogeneous. (Edit: they admit not.)  Does it depend on time of day for readings, as they have found with pH levels?

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Ocean oxygen is vital to marine organisms, but also very delicate — unlike in the atmosphere, where gases mix together thoroughly,


Uh-oh, back to the well-mixed gas theory. Wink


Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Positive feedback loops


Gotta watch out for those positive feedback loops.
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #11 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 11:07am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 6:43am:
Antarctic sea ice extent diminishing:



And here I thought AGW was more than one year's weather. And an El Nino year at that. Wink
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #12 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 11:09am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:57am:
I have been reading in various papers that kelp forests are disappearing from large swathes of offshore seas.



And this has been attributed to AGW?
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #13 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 11:14am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:57am:
the sea level rises caused by it will worsen flooding.



"Sea-level change in Southeast Asia 6,000 years ago has implications for today"

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-sea-level-southeast-asia-years-implications.html
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #14 - Feb 22nd, 2017 at 12:58pm
 
Gordon wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:50am:
I believe in AGW but it's not going to cause end times like the  merchants of panic believe.


it all depends on greenland
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