Is this OK with you perceptions? A thread about what's happening on the ASX that might be of interest.
Absolutely no recommendations though or ramping of any kind. There are a few people here I know of who might contribute.

Today Westpac announced its results. Not bad I thought, key measures up, no glaringly bad news, but as is often the case the sp (share price) drops over 4%. But this will correct itself in due course through market forces.
Why? One can't be sure of course, but I suspect a key factor is the major shareholders (funds) rebalance their stakes according to formulas they use which may or may not reflect the actual value of the stock.

It has been in the news over the weekend that the Nine Network and Southern Cross Austereo have done a deal to take Ch 9's main content & broadcast it through regional NSW,Vic & Qld. This includes big ticket items like NRL, Cricket, The Voice & The Block.
Not surprisingly the Southern Cross sp has taken off a bit this morning - currently up just under 3%.

Woolworths' quarterly sales figures out today continue the trend of losing market share to Coles & Aldi. It has been a sales decline nearing 1 % in each of the last three quarters.
Surely it wouldn't be that hard to send spies into Coles and see what they are doing right.

The sp has dropped from around $29 in March 15 to just over $22 today.
On top of the Masters' disaster, they are now looking at a loss for Big W as well. However they do have a proven merchandiser on the job there and he may be able to turn the ship around.

Where are you Roger Corbett? Or did he foresee what was coming. As a major employer, nobody wants to see this company fall further behind.

•Australian bank dividend yields still among world's highest
•Banks facing slowing revenue growth, narrowing margins
•Westpac, NAB left dividends unchanged, ANZ slashed
•Short positions in banks near record levels on housing risks

Australia's major lenders this week signalled they are ready to forego some of the highest dividends in the banking world after seven years of rising payouts, putting investors like the $1.5 trillion pension industry on notice of lower returns in future.

In a dire week of bank results, Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) left its dividend unchanged after growing it since 2009, ANZ Banking Group (ANZ) cut dividends for the first time in seven years and National Australia Bank (NAB) kept its dividend steady for the second straight half.

Three of the four major lenders also decided to pass on Tuesday's 25 basis point cut in official interest rates in full, squeezing margins which are already near record lows due to tougher capital requirements and stifling competition.

The rate cut more than reverses hikes by each of the major banks including Commonwealth Bank of Australian (CBA) since late last year, and spells the end of an era of ever-rising yields for bank investors.

"We are certainly more cautious with respect to dividend sustainability for Australian banks and have been more comfortable shifting exposure to sectors such as REITs and utilities," said Singapore-based Sat Duhra, who manages Henderson's Asia dividend income fund.
"We assess the risks to the sector has being higher than 12 months ago – the capital issue is 'when' rather than 'if', dividends are not expected to be sustainable during this process and the housing market has continued into bubble territory."

To be sure, Australian banks offer dividend yields of 5.5-7 percent, well ahead of international peers like U.S. retail lender Wells Fargo at 3 percent and British bank Lloyds'  3.4 percent.

But the cost of funding is going up and something has to give, ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott warned on Tuesday.
"So either the shareholders just accept a lower return or banks work really hard on productivity and reconfiguring their business," he told reporters.

Some of that reconfiguring is likely to include boosting accountability and pulling back from aggressive practices that have resulted in a series of reputationally damaging scandals.

On top of their balance-sheet worries, bank executives are fighting calls for a high-powered judicial inquiry into industry misconduct ahead of a general election expected on July 2.

THE BIG SHORT? The "Big Four" banks, which cruised through the global financial crisis on the back of a solid mortgage market and the commodities boom, are rethinking strategies to boost productivity and lower costs.

ANZ is shifting its strategic focus away from low-returning businesses in Asia. Others are deploying less capital in institutional lending, where competition from foreign lenders is intense, and pushing further into housing. They are also cutting costs and staff.

But some investors are not convinced. Bank shares have taken a beating this year, down 5-12 percent, and hedge funds are taking unprecedented short positions due to concerns about inflated house prices.

Bank executives counter that their asset quality is sound. The major banks' Tier 1 capital buffers, at 11.8 percent to 14.3 percent, are commensurate with global peers and rising.

"When you've got an economy in transition like the Australian economy is you're going to face some stressed accounts," NAB CEO Andrew Thorburn said on Thursday after the bank posted a 7.4 percent rise in bad debt charges from Sept-end, reflecting an industry-wide trend.

Pension fund UniSuper, with A$52 billion ($38.77 billion) in funds under management, is one investor that is prepared to ride out the banks' troubles.

It notes that Australian households, on average, have assets well in excess of debt and, if unemployment remains steady, borrowings can be serviced even if property prices stumble.
(Hot Copper)

No, as far as I know they are still negotiating with their partner Lowe about a settlement prior to disposal.

This may be what John had heard:

AFR: Grocery wholesaler Metcash has opted to go it alone in the Woolworths hardware auction, sources told Street Talk.

Metcash, which owns hardware wholesaler Mitre 10, was one of several parties that submitted an indicative bid on Monday. This column understands a bidder shortlist for those vying for all or parts of Woolworths' Masters and Home Timber & Hardware business will be formalised by the month's end.

Metcash's bid for Woolworths' profitable Home Timber & Hardware business would require an equity raise, a move a number of its major investors have already indicated they would support to fund the acquisition.

Metcash's bid makes it clear the company, which is advised by Luminis Partners, is distancing itself from private equity firms.
***************
This has been on the cards for months now but I think they are only interested in the Home Hardware brand.

The Australian dairy industry is set to reap significant benefits from a new research partnership with China, thanks to a million dollar grant from the Australia-China Science and Research Fund (ACSRF).
The newly established Monash Joint Research Centre in Future Dairy Manufacturing will focus on seeking engineering solutions to practical problems in the dairy manufacturing sector. Research directions include the development of innovative, high-value dairy products such as probiotics and protein enriched products, as well as improving efficiencies in the industry. The centre will also promote links between Australian dairy product manufacturers and the large distribution network in China.
Professor Cordelia Selomulya from Monash University’s Department of Chemical Engineering will direct the Centre, which brings together the strongest dairy research teams in the Asia Pacific region.
“We will be working on a range of really exciting projects which will increase the Australian dairy industry’s capacity for export earnings, while also optimising production processes,” Professor Selomulya said.
One of Professor Selomulya’s areas of research involves improving the spray-drying processes for milk powder, which could prevent the loss of several tonnes of product per hour.
Professor Selomulya stated that the centre’s research will enable the Australian dairy industry to go beyond the traditional production of cheese, butter and skim milk powder to the large-scale manufacture of products such as infant formula, which are in high demand in China.
The other partners involved in the initiative include Soochow University, COFCO NHR and Mengniu Dairy in China, along with Bega Cheese, Devondale Murray Goulburn, Fonterra, the Food Innovation Centre, the University of Queensland and the Gardiner Foundation in Australia. Dr Roya Khalil, the New Product Development Manager at Bega Cheese, spoke about the potential of the partnership to facilitate strategic research and development, with a strong focus on the preferences of Chinese consumers.
“The joint research centre provides an opportunity to create a strategic partnership between the Australian and Chinese dairy industry, for a sustainable and long term commercial relationship. Bega Cheese Limited foresees that this collaboration will assist with increasing export volumes, thereby supporting Australian employment opportunities in regional dairy communities,” Dr Khalil said.
Demand is increasing in China for consumer-ready dairy products, and with the recent signing of the free trade agreement, the Australian dairy industry is well-positioned to grow its current share of the market.
The ACSRF supports strategic science, technology and innovation collaboration of mutual benefit to Australia and China. The Monash Joint Research Centre in Future Dairy Manufacturing is one of six funded nationally in 2016.
http://www.eng.monash.edu.au/news/shownews.php?nid=19&year=2016

JB HiFi has confirmed it is in talks to acquire the appliance retailer The Good Guys.

The market talk is that this would be a risky venture for JB HiFi but it would turn it into the biggest appliance retailer in Australia if a deal was consummated.

Well they've announced a consortium of three major banks to handle an IPO but at the same time they have said they are open to "other avenues for share ownership".

John Smith wrote on May 5^th, 2016 at 1:23pm:



South African?

"Failed Masters sites could be replaced with an international big box retailer" Link

http://www.poco.com.au/

http://www.steinhoffinternational.com/index.php

The other Poco:



Note the Eagles' bass player.

Telstra holders ought to be pleased with this, but who knows:

Telstra releases 2016 financial results, announces $1.5 billion share buy-backs
• On a reported basis from continuing operations, total income [1] increased 3.6 per cent to $27.1 billion and EBITDA decreased 0.6 per cent to $10.5 billion
• On a guidance [2] basis, total income [1] increased 6.3 per cent to $28.3 billion, EBITDA increased 2.6 per cent to $11.0 billion and free cash flow was $4.8 billion
• Net profit after tax increased 35.9 per cent to $5.8 billion, including $1.8 billion from the sale of Autohome shares. Earnings per share increased 37.4 per cent to 47.4 cents
• Final dividend of 15.5 cents per share taking total dividend for FY16 to 31.0 cents per share
• Up to an extra $3 billion invested over next three years on networks of the future and digitisation to drive improvements in customer experiences
• Impairment of Ooyala intelligent video subsidiary of $246 million
• Added 560,000 domestic retail mobile customer services and 235,000 domestic retail fixed broadband customers

Plus a $1.5 b share buyback announced.

Market fascism. Despite Goebbels and his usual Breitbart bullshit the reason behind the rise on Wall Street is the Trump administration will:

1). Carry out policies to benefit the financial elites.

2). The Trump administration will tear up the few restrictions on the operations of the banks and finance houses put in place under the Dodd-Frank Act.

You kangaroo rooters all remember the Dodd-Frank act. It was implemented back in 2008 in response to the global financial crisis of 2008 when a Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations placed the finger right on Goldman Sachs’ devious operations in the lead-up to the 2008 fiasco. Now it appears the Grumpy Trumpy wants to throw out the Dodd-Frank act and give these criminals (you know like Hilary was/is) free reign to do whatever the bugger they want.

Of course, this is Wall Street we're talking about and Trump has sworn to cut the corporate tax rate to as low as 15% from its present level of 35%.

Yes, America will be "great" again - if you're wealthy in the first place.

Get lost, Goebbels.

Everyone of your parroted threads is political in nature, Goebbels.

They're calling for you in the chat room . . .but I'd stay away

AFR:


BP's $1.78 billion acquisition of Woolworths' petrol business is anti-competitive and is unlikely to be approved by the competition regulator in the first instance, according to investment bank Credit Suisse.

The BP/Woolworths deal is "bad for the consumer" and would likely push up retail fuel margins, Credit Suisse said in a report this week.

Credit Suisse analysts compared Caltex's failed $300 million bid for Mobil's 302 fuel sites in 2009 with BP's plans to acquire Woolworths' 527 sites for $1.78 billion and came to the conclusion that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission would likely block the bid "at first."

"BP is a premium pricer, Woolworths is a discounter. It is hard, therefore, to see how this transaction would not put upward pressure on retail margins," the analysts said.
 
"We find it hard to reach any conclusion other than that a BP/Woolworths deal would be detrimental to competition in this sector."


BP may need to divest more than 90 of some 1927 sites (4.6 per cent) to gain ACCC clearance, changing the dynamics of the deal.

Even the disposal of 90 sites might not alleviate the impact of the deal on wholesale prices, Credit Suisse said, noting that BP would wholesale supply 30 cent of proposed sites or 39 per cent of volumes.

"We still ultimately see it as more likely than not the deal proceeds," the analysts said.

"It is not impossible it fails, though, and we must consider the impact on BP's economics that a higher level of site divestments might have on a deal we already think they are paying over for.
 
"They have paid a huge multiple for the business, clearly in the view that they can extract considerably more earnings from the sites," the report said.
Credit Suisse is an adviser to Caltex, which made an unsucccessful offer for the Woolworths business.

The ACCC launched a review of the BP/Woolworths deal earlier this month, even though BP and Woolworths are yet to lodge their submissions.

BP is expected to argue that the Australian retail fuel market is highly competitive and the level of competition would not change if it acquired Woolworths' fuel business, which turns over $4.6 billion a year.
 
The deal is not expected to be completed until January 2018, underlining the complexity of the acquisition and the lengthy competition approval process.

The ACCC blocked Caltex's acquisition of 302 Mobil fuel sites in December 2009 after a six month investigation, saying it was likely to substantially lessen competition in wholesale and retail fuel markets.[

BP already operates about 350 company-owned retail sites, or about 5 per cent of the market, and supplies fuel to another 1000 sites which are owned independently and branded as BP.

Post the Woolworths acquisition, BP would have about 1927 sites, making it the same size as Woolworths current petrol partner Caltex (1900) and bigger than Shell (980) and Coles Express (692).
 
However, Credit Suisse estimates that BP's share of the retail market by volume will be 39 per cent, compared with Woolworths/Caltex share of 24 per cent.
Under the proposed deal, BP and Woolworths would jointly fund the existing 4¢ a litre fuel discount for Woolworths' shoppers for at least 10 years. BP has also promised to expand the discount to additional BP sites and extend Woolworths' customer loyalty program.

Under a long term strategic partnership with Woolworths, BP plans to launch "Metro at BP" convenience stores in 200 BP fuel outlets, selling ready-to-eat and take-home meals, similar to its partnerships with Marks & Spencer in the United Kingdom and REWE in Germany.

BP is being advised by Corrs Chambers Westgarth and Norton Rose, while Woolworths is being advised by Clayton Utz.

According to its Office of National Statistics, the UK economy grew by 2% in 2016 making it the fastest growing in the G7.

(Is China part of the G7? Or doesn't anybody believe its figures anyway)

For those interested (Sprint?), a really useful and fast website for ASX info is:
http://www.marketindex.com.au/upcoming-dividends

Click on the ASX code & it gives you quick reference to upcoming dividends, company research, announcements, history, chart etc
without wading through a broker's often tedious website.

A market outlook from one fund manager:

Chief Investment Officer of John Bridgeman Limited, Stuart McAuliffe, states:
“We made some decisions last year that played out very well, resulting in an increase of over 100% on our trading accounts in six months. While anything can happen in the market, we expect to even better that achievement this year. As a result, many have asked us what we think will happens this year.
“While we cannot give you all of our proprietary models, we can tell you what we think will happen and where the action lies:
1. Chinese stocks go on a mid to end year tear beating all developed markets, soaring over 20%.
2. The Mexican Peso continues as the best performing currency in the world doubling its returns so far this year (approximately 12% so far).
3. Reformist Macron wins the French election and French stocks soar taking European banks and insurers with them. A 20% ‘up year’ in European stocks crushes bears.
4. Bunds (German 10 year bonds) and other safe havens get truly mauled (they had it coming).
5. Commodities continue to rally into year-end after a dip right now, confounding critics.
6. The British Pound becomes the best performing developed world currency from here, closely followed by the Euro rallying 10%, again shocking forecasters.
7. The NASDAQ 100 is the best performing US stock index.
8. Trump economic policies fail to deliver for most of this year, but all come together by the end of 2017 and push markets higher into year-end and the bull continues throughout 2018. Bears tell us daily that this just cannot be – but we believe it is.
9. The ASX is an average performer – we think you should focus on global funds.
10. If you think you are long enough stocks, you probably are not. If you are worried you are too conservatively placed, well, don’t say we didn’t warn you."
DISCLAIMER: The information in this Market Outlook (Outlook) has been prepared by John Bridgeman Limited for Henry Morgan Limited ACN 602 041 770 and is based on the opinions of John Bridgeman Limited regarding market conditions as at the date of this Outlook. This information is given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. Information in this Outlook, including forecast financial information, should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to investors or potential investors in relation to holding, purchasing or selling securities or other financial products or instruments and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Readers should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to these matters, and should seek independent financial advice

Well all I'd say is he knows more than me plus his reputation in the market depends on him not making a fool of himself, a luxury you and I can afford.

PostScript:
The chief of funds manager Allan Gray describes the Downer bid as "disastrous".
"We're very upset with this deal, I think it's crazy," Mr Mawhinney said. "They could walk away from this deal, hopefully they do."

Mr Mawhinney said he was "staggered" by the 59 per cent takeover premium that Downer was offering Spotless shareholders, valuing the company at around $2 billion, including debt. "It vastly exceeds the true value of the company ... I don't see the economic rationale behind this transaction."

Allan Gray however themselves took up the institutional offer, the rationale being share prices post bid very rarely collapse so spectacularly.

Congratulations to Coles for awarding a contract to local manufacturer & distributor Maxitrans for 395 new trailers for supermarket deliveries.
It makes sense of course. The barriers to entry must be considerable and Maxitrans also has parts & service centres all over the country.

But it means 100 more jobs at Maxitrans.

WESFARMERS RETAILERS THIRD QUARTER SALES RESULTS:

* Coles food and liquor sales rose 1.2 per cent to $7.6 billion

* Bunnings Australia & NZ sales rose 7.7 per cent to $2.8 billion

* Bunnings UK and Ireland sales were $400 million

* Kmart sales rose 2.5 per cent to $1.1 billion

* Target sales fell 18.1 per cent to $555 million

* Officeworks sales rose 9.0 per cent to $558 million

(Source: Wesfarmers trading update for the three months to March 26, 2017)

Negative sentiment from investors towards the banking sector is expected to grow . . .

Sam Ferraro, Evidente:
•Expect brokers to adjust their earnings forecasts lower, likely to be accompanied by further selling
•The housing cycle remains a key concern with bank profits at risk of being squeezed at the revenue and cost lines
•There is plenty of negative sentiment towards the sector right now, on current book multiple this 'bearish' sentiment doesn't appear to be justified
•The 2017 Budget has delivered a massive 'hospital pass' from Malcolm Turnbull to the Banks with the introduction of a new bank levy...

Well that's right. By definition, if you put a tax on something it's going to make it less attractive.

The Hundred Billion Dollar Man
By Sprott Money

In the middle of 2014; Warren Buffett's cash hoard reached an all-time record high: $50 billion. Readers were warned at that time that the Vampire of Omaha was already planning on feasting on the misery of others following the Next Crash. Three more years have gone by. Now the Buffett cash hoard has hit $100 billion – and the bubbles are much bigger.

. . .It's not that Warren Buffett can't find any companies in which he would like to deploy some of Berkshire Hathaway's (and his own) vampire dollars. It's that Buffett doesn't want to pay bubble prices for these equities.

. . .The disconnect between U.S. market valuations and the actual fundamentals of the U.S. economy is far, far greater than at any other time in history. Worse than in the Crash of '08. Worse than in the Dot-Com Bubble. Worse than in the Crash of '29.

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-hundred-billion-dollar-man.html

bogarde73 wrote on May 31^st, 2017 at 10:00am:


I have SOME NEWS for the US FED, the RBA & others, THE LOCAL & GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ARE BASED ON A NUMBER OF MAJOR INTERACTIVE FACTORS!
And, for some time & some time to come, those major Economic Factors are-
1) Demographics - An Aging Population, with a Slowing Growth.
2) Energy - Supply Slowing & Prices Reacting to a Number of issues.
3) Climate Change - The Goldilocks Global Climate is finished, No matter what some Politicians may Think &/or Say.
4) Debt - Rising, until some gives way?

Now is the winter of our discontent
Not yet made glorious summer by falling stock prices . . .

But hang around till October/November
And the fruit will be hanging low

That's my belief anyway

Rio has appointed an independent director called Ann Godbehere.
What a strange name. Sounds Shakespearean.

I wonder if there's anybody with a surname Godbewithyou?

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 27^th, 2017 at 11:08am:


As an accountant, I'm sure she fastidious and understand that the devil is in the details 

Reporting  season is when I spend time looking for dividend trades - stocks to get in & out of with a good yield and hopefully some profit.
Usually small to mid caps, but the fundamentals have to be good, the div yield above average and the chart promising.
Some stocks come just for the short stay, some stick around (like VLW), some repeat their visit more than once.
This year I'm looking at mostly getting out quick and staying cashed up for a possible crash in October/November. In any event I generally get out as soon as even a small profit is available.

A year ago someone was really working me to get into McGrath LTD at about 1.10  Its down to .70 and headed down. Glad I picked up some extra RIO for 50 

Gordon wrote on Aug 24^th, 2017 at 7:03pm:


I never buy large caps anymore. Too much investment in one place, not enough flexibility.
I decided that after my experiences with Ramsay and Leighton (now CIMIC).
I didn't lose on either, in fact  made substantial profits but they might have been larger.
I was scared off Ramsay when Julia Gillard frightened the bejesus out of everybody about health insurance and I got out of Leighton when it began to fall after whatshisname moved on and the ME scandal.

bogarde73 wrote on Sep 6^th, 2017 at 10:52am:


I spoke to a guys who has just dumped 50% of his portfolio to be chased up for the correction he's expecting for cyclical reasons or the plunge caused by Nth Korea

Stephen Koukoulas:

Next week is one of the big ones for the economy, with the two highlights being September quarter GDP and the meeting of the RBA Board.

To the easy one first. The RBA Board will leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent and unfortunately, will not have the benefit of having the GDP result before it to help it shape its views on the economy. It will be relying pretty much on some old news on the economy, which means it will sit tight.

The GDP result will be of much greater interest. Just how strong is the economy? Where is that growth coming from? Which sectors are acting as a handbrake and holding back a lift to a stronger pace? The current market consensus forecast is for GDP growth of around 0.7 per cent for the quarter which translates to annual growth around 3 per cent. This is a reasonable rate of expansion with the bulk of the annual growth being driven by a surge in export volumes, a lift in public sector infrastructure and a welcome uptrend in business investment. Household spending growth is likely to be subdued and remain the weakest link in the economic story.

Fear is still attracting more supporters than greed at this time.

I thought it had reached or was pretty close to the bottom Sprint so I jumped in. Then came the profit downgrade so I jumped back out but not before losing a good bit.
I don't know if there is a bottom with this, 10 cents maybe.
It's being pumped and dumped by the funds now. Not touching it again with a barge pole.

Sry to hear that.

Well done on getting out of a loser. That shows real 'grit'.
By doing that, you limit the loss.
You survive to fight another day.

ARE WE ON THE BRINK?

The market has to crash some time, the cycle has to be completed.

I've got an awful feeling it's just about to happen.

Figures that came out of the Dallas and the Atlanta Federal Reserve last week certainly seem to point to sound economic growth currently.

But Sprint, there is nothing rational about the stock market. It is apt to send itself into a spin and then crash over one bit if bad news, especially when people are poised to expect it.

The Bank of America has said that one of its indices that has been correct 11/11 times was recently triggered to predict a crash.
Unfortunately it doesn't predict when.

bogarde73 wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2017 at 6:00pm:



Fascinating difference of ideology there.
The winners I want to hold, in  the idea they will win more.
The losers, I sell, in the idea they will lose more.

But, in all regards, never let a winner turn into a loser.

The sun will still rise.
The World will still spin.

That was definitely a grey day for the market. Now it depends how Wall St starts its week as to whether tomorrow will be a black Tuesday.

I jumped in and bought some calls, ever the optimist

bogarde73 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2018 at 3:19pm:


I'm in it for the bounce and will be out by the end of the week, for richer or poorer.

Goldman calls regime change.
The buy-the-dip is out, the sell-the-rally is in.
Sounds good advice in part, but selling should have been done last year and buying should be done when the BIG dip comes.
Except of course for the long holds - a loss can become a profit.

The Fin Review says today RFG may close up to 400! stores.

I wonder is any one of their brands most likely to be severely chopped. Gloria Jeans? Donut King is it? I wouldn't think Michelle's Patisserie.

A lot of jobs, part time of course mostly, in 400 stores.

Good for you.

bogarde73 wrote on Mar 8^th, 2018 at 9:50am:


I looked at buying some RFG a while ago.
decided their 'goods' were outmoded.
Donuts are in decline . 

The February payroll statistics in the US shows that it was a bumper month for job growth, with one surprise.

A lot of jobs were added across almost all sectors: construction, durables, even retail,  but information was a big loser -127000.

But overall good economic news and real news.