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Market notes (Read 30024 times)
bogarde73
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Market notes
May 2nd, 2016 at 10:26am
 
Is this OK with you perceptions? A thread about what's happening on the ASX that might be of interest.
Absolutely no recommendations though or ramping of any kind. There are a few people here I know of who might contribute.

Today Westpac announced its results. Not bad I thought, key measures up, no glaringly bad news, but as is often the case the sp (share price) drops over 4%. But this will correct itself in due course through market forces.
Why? One can't be sure of course, but I suspect a key factor is the major shareholders (funds) rebalance their stakes according to formulas they use which may or may not reflect the actual value of the stock.

It has been in the news over the weekend that the Nine Network and Southern Cross Austereo have done a deal to take Ch 9's main content & broadcast it through regional NSW,Vic & Qld. This includes big ticket items like NRL, Cricket, The Voice & The Block.
Not surprisingly the Southern Cross sp has taken off a bit this morning - currently up just under 3%.
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bogarde73
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Re: Market notes
Reply #1 - May 2nd, 2016 at 10:40am
 
Telstra has announced it will return about $1.5 billion to shareholders starting from the first half of the 2017 financial year, which I guess probably means around dividend time later this year.
There must be a fair few Telstra shareholders here.
It's not known what form this capital return will take - cash? bonus shares?
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bogarde73
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Reply #2 - May 3rd, 2016 at 1:58pm
 
Woolworths' quarterly sales figures out today continue the trend of losing market share to Coles & Aldi. It has been a sales decline nearing 1 % in each of the last three quarters.
Surely it wouldn't be that hard to send spies into Coles and see what they are doing right.

The sp has dropped from around $29 in March 15 to just over $22 today.
On top of the Masters' disaster, they are now looking at a loss for Big W as well. However they do have a proven merchandiser on the job there and he may be able to turn the ship around.

Where are you Roger Corbett? Or did he foresee what was coming. As a major employer, nobody wants to see this company fall further behind.

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bogarde73
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Re: Market notes
Reply #3 - May 4th, 2016 at 1:42pm
 
Further to the above, a rating downgrade by Standard & Poors has put further pressure on the Woolworths sp, pushing it near to a 10 year low.
No doubt there will be plenty of buyers though who will have confidence that the big ship can turn around and will see this as a bargain.
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bogarde73
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Re: Market notes
Reply #4 - May 5th, 2016 at 1:17pm
 


•Australian bank dividend yields still among world's highest
•Banks facing slowing revenue growth, narrowing margins
•Westpac, NAB left dividends unchanged, ANZ slashed
•Short positions in banks near record levels on housing risks

Australia's major lenders this week signalled they are ready to forego some of the highest dividends in the banking world after seven years of rising payouts, putting investors like the $1.5 trillion pension industry on notice of lower returns in future.

In a dire week of bank results, Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) left its dividend unchanged after growing it since 2009, ANZ Banking Group (ANZ) cut dividends for the first time in seven years and National Australia Bank (NAB) kept its dividend steady for the second straight half.

Three of the four major lenders also decided to pass on Tuesday's 25 basis point cut in official interest rates in full, squeezing margins which are already near record lows due to tougher capital requirements and stifling competition.

The rate cut more than reverses hikes by each of the major banks including Commonwealth Bank of Australian (CBA) since late last year, and spells the end of an era of ever-rising yields for bank investors.

"We are certainly more cautious with respect to dividend sustainability for Australian banks and have been more comfortable shifting exposure to sectors such as REITs and utilities," said Singapore-based Sat Duhra, who manages Henderson's Asia dividend income fund.
"We assess the risks to the sector has being higher than 12 months ago – the capital issue is 'when' rather than 'if', dividends are not expected to be sustainable during this process and the housing market has continued into bubble territory."

To be sure, Australian banks offer dividend yields of 5.5-7 percent, well ahead of international peers like U.S. retail lender Wells Fargo at 3 percent and British bank Lloyds'  3.4 percent.

But the cost of funding is going up and something has to give, ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott warned on Tuesday.
"So either the shareholders just accept a lower return or banks work really hard on productivity and reconfiguring their business," he told reporters.

Some of that reconfiguring is likely to include boosting accountability and pulling back from aggressive practices that have resulted in a series of reputationally damaging scandals.

On top of their balance-sheet worries, bank executives are fighting calls for a high-powered judicial inquiry into industry misconduct ahead of a general election expected on July 2.

THE BIG SHORT? The "Big Four" banks, which cruised through the global financial crisis on the back of a solid mortgage market and the commodities boom, are rethinking strategies to boost productivity and lower costs.

ANZ is shifting its strategic focus away from low-returning businesses in Asia. Others are deploying less capital in institutional lending, where competition from foreign lenders is intense, and pushing further into housing. They are also cutting costs and staff.

But some investors are not convinced. Bank shares have taken a beating this year, down 5-12 percent, and hedge funds are taking unprecedented short positions due to concerns about inflated house prices.

Bank executives counter that their asset quality is sound. The major banks' Tier 1 capital buffers, at 11.8 percent to 14.3 percent, are commensurate with global peers and rising.

"When you've got an economy in transition like the Australian economy is you're going to face some stressed accounts," NAB CEO Andrew Thorburn said on Thursday after the bank posted a 7.4 percent rise in bad debt charges from Sept-end, reflecting an industry-wide trend.

Pension fund UniSuper, with A$52 billion ($38.77 billion) in funds under management, is one investor that is prepared to ride out the banks' troubles.

It notes that Australian households, on average, have assets well in excess of debt and, if unemployment remains steady, borrowings can be serviced even if property prices stumble.
(Hot Copper)
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John Smith
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Re: Market notes
Reply #5 - May 5th, 2016 at 1:23pm
 
bogarde73 wrote on May 3rd, 2016 at 1:58pm:
Woolworths' quarterly sales figures out today continue the trend of losing market share to Coles & Aldi. It has been a sales decline nearing 1 % in each of the last three quarters.
Surely it wouldn't be that hard to send spies into Coles and see what they are doing right.

The sp has dropped from around $29 in March 15 to just over $22 today.
On top of the Masters' disaster, they are now looking at a loss for Big W as well. However they do have a proven merchandiser on the job there and he may be able to turn the ship around.

Where are you Roger Corbett? Or did he foresee what was coming. As a major employer, nobody wants to see this company fall further behind.




Someone mentioned to me that Masters has found a buyer from the USA but I haven't heard anything anywhere else .... you know of anything about it boges or shall I write it up as bullsh1t?
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bogarde73
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Reply #6 - May 5th, 2016 at 1:41pm
 
No, as far as I know they are still negotiating with their partner Lowe about a settlement prior to disposal.
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Re: Market notes
Reply #7 - May 6th, 2016 at 7:41am
 
I note that the Trade Deficit fell by 900 million for March. April's  trade deficit was revised down significantly, with March’s figures showing a reduction in the shortfall of nearly -AU$900 million. Iron ore exports rose 10%, while iron ore exports to China increased 11%.

The dollar rose significantly on the back of that news.

Let's hope that the electorate take note.
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Reply #8 - May 6th, 2016 at 10:57am
 
This may be what John had heard:

AFR: Grocery wholesaler Metcash has opted to go it alone in the Woolworths hardware auction, sources told Street Talk.

Metcash, which owns hardware wholesaler Mitre 10, was one of several parties that submitted an indicative bid on Monday. This column understands a bidder shortlist for those vying for all or parts of Woolworths' Masters and Home Timber & Hardware business will be formalised by the month's end.

Metcash's bid for Woolworths' profitable Home Timber & Hardware business would require an equity raise, a move a number of its major investors have already indicated they would support to fund the acquisition.

Metcash's bid makes it clear the company, which is advised by Luminis Partners, is distancing itself from private equity firms.
***************
This has been on the cards for months now but I think they are only interested in the Home Hardware brand.

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Reply #9 - May 6th, 2016 at 11:16am
 
Well I've been waiting for this to happen. The HealthCare sector is starting to react, I suspect, to the Budget medicare freeze - if it happens.
Primary HealthCare, Ramsay and Healthscope have all dropped off since the Budget. And it can't be a coincidence that Ramsay's sp started to turn down from 2nd May.
These are not major reversals, probably indicating doubt that the freeze will get through and it's difficult to link it directly to the Budget rather than market fluctuations.
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Reply #10 - May 6th, 2016 at 3:33pm
 
The Australian dairy industry is set to reap significant benefits from a new research partnership with China, thanks to a million dollar grant from the Australia-China Science and Research Fund (ACSRF).
The newly established Monash Joint Research Centre in Future Dairy Manufacturing will focus on seeking engineering solutions to practical problems in the dairy manufacturing sector. Research directions include the development of innovative, high-value dairy products such as probiotics and protein enriched products, as well as improving efficiencies in the industry. The centre will also promote links between Australian dairy product manufacturers and the large distribution network in China.
Professor Cordelia Selomulya from Monash University’s Department of Chemical Engineering will direct the Centre, which brings together the strongest dairy research teams in the Asia Pacific region.
“We will be working on a range of really exciting projects which will increase the Australian dairy industry’s capacity for export earnings, while also optimising production processes,” Professor Selomulya said.
One of Professor Selomulya’s areas of research involves improving the spray-drying processes for milk powder, which could prevent the loss of several tonnes of product per hour.
Professor Selomulya stated that the centre’s research will enable the Australian dairy industry to go beyond the traditional production of cheese, butter and skim milk powder to the large-scale manufacture of products such as infant formula, which are in high demand in China.
The other partners involved in the initiative include Soochow University, COFCO NHR and Mengniu Dairy in China, along with Bega Cheese, Devondale Murray Goulburn, Fonterra, the Food Innovation Centre, the University of Queensland and the Gardiner Foundation in Australia. Dr Roya Khalil, the New Product Development Manager at Bega Cheese, spoke about the potential of the partnership to facilitate strategic research and development, with a strong focus on the preferences of Chinese consumers.
“The joint research centre provides an opportunity to create a strategic partnership between the Australian and Chinese dairy industry, for a sustainable and long term commercial relationship. Bega Cheese Limited foresees that this collaboration will assist with increasing export volumes, thereby supporting Australian employment opportunities in regional dairy communities,” Dr Khalil said.
Demand is increasing in China for consumer-ready dairy products, and with the recent signing of the free trade agreement, the Australian dairy industry is well-positioned to grow its current share of the market.
The ACSRF supports strategic science, technology and innovation collaboration of mutual benefit to Australia and China. The Monash Joint Research Centre in Future Dairy Manufacturing is one of six funded nationally in 2016.
http://www.eng.monash.edu.au/news/shownews.php?nid=19&year=2016
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bogarde73
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Reply #11 - May 16th, 2016 at 2:18pm
 
Since Mr Turnbull's announcement a few days ago that a deal had been reached to avert the Medicare freeze, all those stocks I mentioned above have recovered to a varying degree.

Primary HealthCare, perhaps the most exposed because it runs Pathology & GP clinics, is up right now 5.6%.

I don't pretend to understand what the deal is. Apparently it relates to rent on pathology collection centres but how the federal govt can get into that area don't ask me.
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Reply #12 - May 19th, 2016 at 2:10pm
 
JB HiFi has confirmed it is in talks to acquire the appliance retailer The Good Guys.

The market talk is that this would be a risky venture for JB HiFi but it would turn it into the biggest appliance retailer in Australia if a deal was consummated.
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Re: Market notes
Reply #13 - May 21st, 2016 at 11:12am
 
bogarde73 wrote on May 19th, 2016 at 2:10pm:
JB HiFi has confirmed it is in talks to acquire the appliance retailer The Good Guys.



There is also talk that private equity firms are interested.
Although I can't see a public float being very successful after the Dick Smith debarkle
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bogarde73
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Reply #14 - May 23rd, 2016 at 10:03am
 
Well they've announced a consortium of three major banks to handle an IPO but at the same time they have said they are open to "other avenues for share ownership".
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