I spent a fair bit of time last night chatting to a mate who works in Canberra.
He's a civil servant and neither a Liberal nor a Labor person and has worked on policy for both Howard and Rudd's Governments.

His view is pretty well informed when I listen to him and I thought he had a few decent points.

1) Rudd has an ego the size of Africa and will not have taken on Gillard to be soundly beaten (remember I spoke to him yesterday before the result).

2) He reckoned Rudd would be soundly beaten but the aim here was to chip away at the strength of Gillard.

3) Gillard can't communicate with the people. Very popular in cabinet, she apparently speaks really well in closed door discussions and opens the room to debate really well. Hence the view in Canberra as to how well liked she is - yet puzzled as to why she can't do it with the people.

4) Rudd is apparently (and I didn't know this) - a keen studier of long term strategic warfare and historical military campaigns etc.

5) The view in Canberra is that Rudd has worked that he'll challenge now, get his intentions out there, get beaten, see Gillard not able to turn it around, get beaten by Abbott then Abbott would come to power.

6) Rudd, the belief is, will then work out that the Labor Party would come to him and ask him to take on Abbott given his excellent record and what a disaster they will have been in the next election.

7) Rudd, the long term strategist, will calculate he can again be PM, on his terms, in 4 years time.

I thought it was really interesting to hear his view that Rudd will see this as the first part of a 4 part campaign.

The key now (which is out of Rudd's hands) is if Gillard can somehow rescue her dire polling.

I personally don't think she can.