Australian Politics Forum - Two Party Preference

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Two Party Preference
Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:47am

Insiders ABC, averaging out polls and I think it was apx

33 ALP
46 Liberals and their little bitch
11 Greens
and rest the Independents.

Now TPP gives the coalition a major advantage.

Will the Independents really preference the Coalition over ALP ... yes some are ex coalition members yet after the attacks by the coalition, surely we can no longer factor in their preferencing so the TPP is not very reliable.

Primary
33% ALP plus 80% of the 11% Greens plus say 50% of the 10% Independents would make TPP lineball.

i.e 48/52 to the coalition.

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Andrei.Hicks

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #1 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:50am

Worry about that a lot later woody.

The main focus now is the Labor leadership and who will run the country.

I know you are frightened to death of a Tony Abbott PM'ship (as I know you dislike the fact he and I have old common moral values which don't agree with your choice of life) - but now is not the time for trying to work out as desperately as you can how he won't win!

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____

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #2 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:50am:

Worry about that a lot later woody.

The main focus now is the Labor leadership and who will run the country.

I know you are frightened to death of a Tony Abbott PM'ship (as I know you dislike the fact he and I have old common moral values which don't agree with your choice of life) - but now is not the time for trying to work out as desperately as you can how he won't win!

Not worried about Abbott, I am more interested in keeping Turnbull out of the Lib leadership since over 50% dislike the job Abbott is doing.

Two very unpopular parties equates to a more hung House of Reps parliament and a stronger grip on the Senate for the Greens.

if the TPP is incorrect which logic says it is, then Gillard is not as bad for Labor as some think.

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

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Andrei.Hicks

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #3 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:01am

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:50am:

Worry about that a lot later woody.

The main focus now is the Labor leadership and who will run the country.

I know you are frightened to death of a Tony Abbott PM'ship (as I know you dislike the fact he and I have old common moral values which don't agree with your choice of life) - but now is not the time for trying to work out as desperately as you can how he won't win!

Not worried about Abbott, I am more interested in keeping Turnbull out of the Lib leadership since over 50% dislike the job Abbott is doing.

Two very unpopular parties equates to a more hung House of Reps parliament and a stronger grip on the Senate for the Greens.

if the TPP is incorrect which logic says it is, then Gillard is not as bad for Labor as some think.

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

The fact you write about him an awful lot and never anything positive tells a very different story.

There is amongst both Greens and Labor an awful lot of reference to Tony Abbott.

Bob Brown said he had no intention of ever discussing a minority agreement with Tony Abbott.

Nice and open minded of you there Bob....

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Andrei.Hicks

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #4 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

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____

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #5 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:10am

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

Not a very good investment tool ... how much did your adviser lead you to investing into Elron?

Agreeing with the status quo and not questioning is the path of a clone, not a rational human.

No way will the Independences hand over their seats to the coalition, like Tanner did to Melbourne for the Greens. Independents will use Labor preferencing to beat the coalition in current Independent held seats and in currently held Coalition Seats.

By Independents doing this, it makes current TPP polling wrong.

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Andrei.Hicks

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #6 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:14am

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:10am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

Not a very good investment tool ... how much did your adviser lead you to investing into Elron?

Agreeing with the status quo and not questioning is the path of a clone, not a rational human.

No way will the Independences hand over their seats to the coalition, like Tanner did to Melbourne for the Greens. Independents will use Labor preferencing to beat the coalition in current Independent held seats and in currently held Coalition Seats.

By Independents doing this, it makes current TPP polling wrong.

Mate have you seen the polling from the independents' electorates.

They are National/Liberal traditional seats.
Greens poll utter shite in Katter/Oakeshott/Windsor's seats.

Katter will stroll back in.
The other two will lose their seat to the Nationals (though I think Windsor is retiring).

So of the 3 amigos it will be Katter and 2 Nationals next time.

Wilkie may retain his seat but you know as well as anyone, there is an uneasy relationship between him and Brown.

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Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde

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____

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #7 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:32am

Kennedy, ALP's vote is 20%, enough to decide a close contest between Katter and the opposition for Katter.

Denison, ALP 35%, Greens 19% and Libs 22%, would Wilkie use Libs preferences for his own end?

Lyne, ALP 13.5% and Greens 4.5%. of course Oakshot will use this potential 18% preferencing to hold on to his seat.

New England, Labor 8% and Greens 3.5%, surely Windsor will use this to keep Nats out.

The statistic TPP current formula is not compatible with a hung parliament, a hung parliament which will likely become more common.

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nairbe

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #8 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:37am

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:14am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:10am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

Not a very good investment tool ... how much did your adviser lead you to investing into Elron?

Agreeing with the status quo and not questioning is the path of a clone, not a rational human.

No way will the Independences hand over their seats to the coalition, like Tanner did to Melbourne for the Greens. Independents will use Labor preferencing to beat the coalition in current Independent held seats and in currently held Coalition Seats.

By Independents doing this, it makes current TPP polling wrong.

Mate have you seen the polling from the independents' electorates.

They are National/Liberal traditional seats.
Greens poll utter shite in Katter/Oakeshott/Windsor's seats.

Katter will stroll back in.
The other two will lose their seat to the Nationals (though I think Windsor is retiring).

So of the 3 amigos it will be Katter and 2 Nationals next time.

Wilkie may retain his seat but you know as well as anyone, there is an uneasy relationship between him and Brown.

Katter will win
Windsor will run if Joyce is in his seat
Oakshot has not a chance in hell, even if the government turn it around and win. There is a massively biased campagne being run by the redneck media against him. I consider Hadley as a criminal the way he pursues people with lies. He is so bad he will not debate Rob on his radio program.
Wilkie is history, Labor will regain this seat. He has proven useless.

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____

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #9 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:44am

nairbe wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:37am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:14am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:10am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

Not a very good investment tool ... how much did your adviser lead you to investing into Elron?

Agreeing with the status quo and not questioning is the path of a clone, not a rational human.

No way will the Independences hand over their seats to the coalition, like Tanner did to Melbourne for the Greens. Independents will use Labor preferencing to beat the coalition in current Independent held seats and in currently held Coalition Seats.

By Independents doing this, it makes current TPP polling wrong.

Mate have you seen the polling from the independents' electorates.

They are National/Liberal traditional seats.
Greens poll utter shite in Katter/Oakeshott/Windsor's seats.

Katter will stroll back in.
The other two will lose their seat to the Nationals (though I think Windsor is retiring).

So of the 3 amigos it will be Katter and 2 Nationals next time.

Wilkie may retain his seat but you know as well as anyone, there is an uneasy relationship between him and Brown.

Katter will win
Windsor will run if Joyce is in his seat
Oakshot has not a chance in hell, even if the government turn it around and win. There is a massively biased campagne being run by the redneck media against him. I consider Hadley as a criminal the way he pursues people with lies. He is so bad he will not debate Rob on his radio program.
Wilkie is history, Labor will regain this seat. He has proven useless.

I reckon Denison is a reasonable chance fro the Greens rather than ALP.

2010
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/deni.htm
2007
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/deni.htm

Labor support has shifted to Wilkie and the way Labor has deserted their core, would more likely go to the Greens if Wilkie loses his way.

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Armchair_Politician

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #10 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:45am

nairbe wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:37am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:14am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:10am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

Not a very good investment tool ... how much did your adviser lead you to investing into Elron?

Agreeing with the status quo and not questioning is the path of a clone, not a rational human.

No way will the Independences hand over their seats to the coalition, like Tanner did to Melbourne for the Greens. Independents will use Labor preferencing to beat the coalition in current Independent held seats and in currently held Coalition Seats.

By Independents doing this, it makes current TPP polling wrong.

Mate have you seen the polling from the independents' electorates.

They are National/Liberal traditional seats.
Greens poll utter shite in Katter/Oakeshott/Windsor's seats.

Katter will stroll back in.
The other two will lose their seat to the Nationals (though I think Windsor is retiring).

So of the 3 amigos it will be Katter and 2 Nationals next time.

Wilkie may retain his seat but you know as well as anyone, there is an uneasy relationship between him and Brown.

Katter will win
Windsor will run if Joyce is in his seat
Oakshot has not a chance in hell, even if the government turn it around and win. There is a massively biased campagne being run by the redneck media against him. I consider Hadley as a criminal the way he pursues people with lies. He is so bad he will not debate Rob on his radio program.
Wilkie is history, Labor will regain this seat. He has proven useless.

Oakeshott made his bed the moment he sided with Gillard against the wishes of his vastly conservative electorate. There is no bias. Oakeshott is delusional, as evidenced in his idiotic rants that Gillard has done a great job. He'll cop an electoral ass-whuppin' of gigantic proportions and he knows it. As for Ray Hadley, he's asked Oakeshott numerous times to appear on his show - Oakeshott has refused each time. You should note also that Gillard has also refused to appear on his show.

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____

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Re: Two Party Preference
Reply #11 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 10:26am

Armchair_Politician wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:45am:

nairbe wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:37am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:14am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:10am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 9:03am:

____ wrote on Feb 26^th, 2012 at 8:57am:

So should we use the last election preference flow to decide current polling. In my mind : No

I tell you what woody, I am all for a guy showing confidence and backing himself.
I have done that all my life - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

So whilst I like your confidence of telling the pollsters how they are doing it wrong.

I'll go with the guys who do it for a living....

Not a very good investment tool ... how much did your adviser lead you to investing into Elron?

Agreeing with the status quo and not questioning is the path of a clone, not a rational human.

No way will the Independences hand over their seats to the coalition, like Tanner did to Melbourne for the Greens. Independents will use Labor preferencing to beat the coalition in current Independent held seats and in currently held Coalition Seats.

By Independents doing this, it makes current TPP polling wrong.

Mate have you seen the polling from the independents' electorates.

They are National/Liberal traditional seats.
Greens poll utter shite in Katter/Oakeshott/Windsor's seats.

Katter will stroll back in.
The other two will lose their seat to the Nationals (though I think Windsor is retiring).

So of the 3 amigos it will be Katter and 2 Nationals next time.

Wilkie may retain his seat but you know as well as anyone, there is an uneasy relationship between him and Brown.

Katter will win
Windsor will run if Joyce is in his seat
Oakshot has not a chance in hell, even if the government turn it around and win. There is a massively biased campagne being run by the redneck media against him. I consider Hadley as a criminal the way he pursues people with lies. He is so bad he will not debate Rob on his radio program.
Wilkie is history, Labor will regain this seat. He has proven useless.

Oakeshott made his bed the moment he sided with Gillard against the wishes of his vastly conservative electorate. There is no bias. Oakeshott is delusional, as evidenced in his idiotic rants that Gillard has done a great job. He'll cop an electoral ass-whuppin' of gigantic proportions and he knows it. As for Ray Hadley, he's asked Oakeshott numerous times to appear on his show - Oakeshott has refused each time. You should note also that Gillard has also refused to appear on his show.

The conservative vote gets split in conservative seats the more high quality Independents run.

This will undermine the coalition big time. The lazy coalition members that take their electorate for granted then are vulnerable.

More lib electioneering cash and energy has to be diverted to these seats decreasing the ability for the coalition in marginal seats.

A form of rear end battle attack on the lazy coalition.

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corporate_whitey Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 8896 Archivist	Re: Two Party Preference Reply #12 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 10:35am We should have a first past the post system - thats the democracy thing...
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longweekend58 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 45675 Gender:	Re: Two Party Preference Reply #13 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 12:56pm greens_lose: the master of the idiotic scenario...
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____ Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 33410 Australia Gender:	Re: Two Party Preference Reply #14 - Feb 26^th, 2012 at 1:23pm So the hard right don't use prefencing to their own advantage. Is that why they are currently in the political wilderness will all their hopes pinned on a lame duck?
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