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More facts for the deniers.... (Read 30366 times)
Soren
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #165 - Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:39pm
 
muso wrote on Oct 31st, 2008 at 2:03pm:
Quote:
"And we couldn't explain those changes were just natural influences on climate like volcanoes and changes in the brightness of the sun."



Of course no climate scientist ever seriously suggested that the changes were caused by anything else other than anthropogenic effects. That line is for the press because there is so much disinformation out there in the public domain that needs to be corrected.


Really?



Is There a Sound Case for Carbon Emissions Reduction?

Australians are now being bombarded by an intense government-funded propaganda campaign to encourage people to accept the reality of dangerous human-caused climate change and support early action for “carbon pollution” reduction. The scaremongering about dangerous climate change is based on the erroneous computer model projections and the unsubstantiated extrapolations of a range of climate impacts that are only realistic if no adaptive or mitigating measures are taken.

In the absence of computer models there would be little credence given to the view that the relatively small warming of the second half of the twentieth century was due to carbon dioxide emissions; there would certainly be no credence given to the possibility of irreversible runaway global warming over the coming century. Cool heads would note that most of the earth’s surface is either ocean or freely transpiring vegetation and that surface evaporation will continue to constrain surface temperature rise, as it always has done.
The likely magnitude of human-caused global warming is so low that it will not be discernible against the background of natural variability in the climate record. Thus national or internationally co-ordinated efforts to impose carbon dioxide emission reduction for the purpose of preventing climate change will be a tremendous waste of resources. The real danger is that government-instigated measures to drastically downsize a wide range of fossil-fuel-dependent industries in order to achieve emission reduction targets will actually be effective. Such success will destroy jobs and will limit future development opportunities, with no discernible impact on climate. Then the government will realise that it is much easier to change the economy than to change the climate, and it will also find that the direction and impacts of change will be equally unpredictable.

KissWilliam Kininmonth is the former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre. He was an Australian representative and consultant to the World Meteorological Organization on climate issues and is the author of Climate Change: A Natural Hazard (Multi-science Publishing Co., 2004). He will be among the speakers at the Australian Environment Foundation’s annual conference, “A Climate for Change”, in Canberra this month.
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freediver
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #166 - Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:45pm
 
You should at least include a link when you cut and paste.
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muso
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #167 - Nov 4th, 2008 at 4:14pm
 
Google can be useful sometimes:

The Australian Environment Foundation is a front group founded by the Institute of Public Affairs** (IPA), a conservative Melbourne-based think tank.

The director of the environment unit of the IPA, Jennifer Marohasy was the founding Chairwoman and is listed as a Director in the organisation's documents with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). Mahorasy is also the listed registrant of the group's website, although the address and phone number for the website registration are identical to the address and phone number for the Victorian office of the logging industry front group, Timber Communities Australia. [1] [2]

In July 2005, the month after AEF's official launch, it was announced that former television celebrity Don Burke had been appointed chairman.


William Kininmonth is a known Australian climate change skeptic. His only listed qualification is "Director of the Australasian Climate Research Institute" [1], but the Institute is listed as simply a trading name for "Kininmonth, William Robert", and is based at his private residence in Kew, Australia. [2]. It has no website, phone number or existence separate from Kininmonth, and has never actually had any involvement with climate research.

** The Institute of Public Affairs has close links to the Liberal Party, with it's Executive Director John Roskam having run for Liberal preselection for a number of elections. Its key policy positions include advocacy for privatisation, deregulation, reduction in the power of unions and denial of most significant environmental problems, including climate change.

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pjb05
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #168 - Nov 4th, 2008 at 5:56pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 4th, 2008 at 4:14pm:
Google can be useful sometimes:

William Kininmonth is a known Australian climate change skeptic. His only listed qualification is "Director of the Australasian Climate Research Institute" [1], but the Institute is listed as simply a trading name for "Kininmonth, William Robert", and is based at his private residence in Kew, Australia. [2]. It has no website, phone number or existence separate from Kininmonth, and has never actually had any involvement with climate research.



Thats rather misleading Muso:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Kininmonth_%28meteorologist%29

William Kininmonth (meteorologist)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

William Kininmonth is an Australian climate scientist noted for his views as an opponent of global warming theory and frequently writes on the topic of climate change. He believes that the warming trend of the recent century is not unusual, and he is critical of the simple model of climate systems represented by the IPCC. While Kininmonth believes that anthropogenic sources may make a small contribution to global warming, he believes the natural variability far exceeds that contribution, and this poses serious hazards for human kind.

Kininmonth suggests that it would be unwise to commit scarce resources to reduce carbon dioxide emissions when there is insufficient evidence to support the proposition that global warming is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. Like other global warming skeptics, such as Bjørn Lomborg, he believes that the diversion of resources from infrastructure projects, particularly in developing countries, would be counterproductive.

Kininmonth headed Australia's National Climate Centre from 1986 to 1998, with responsibilities for monitoring Australia's changing climate and advising the Australian government on the extent and severity of climate extremes. He was Australia's delegate to the WMO Commission for Climatology, was a member of Australia's delegations to the Second World Climate Conference (1990) and the subsequent intergovernmental negotiations for the Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991-1992).

Kininmouth is a science adviser to the Science and Public Policy Institute, formerly the Center for Science and Public Policy.




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Soren
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #169 - Nov 4th, 2008 at 6:53pm
 
pjb05 wrote on Nov 4th, 2008 at 5:56pm:
muso wrote on Nov 4th, 2008 at 4:14pm:
Google can be useful sometimes:

William Kininmonth is a known Australian climate change skeptic. His only listed qualification is "Director of the Australasian Climate Research Institute" [1], but the Institute is listed as simply a trading name for "Kininmonth, William Robert", and is based at his private residence in Kew, Australia. [2]. It has no website, phone number or existence separate from Kininmonth, and has never actually had any involvement with climate research.



Thats rather misleading Muso:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Kininmonth_%28meteorologist%29

William Kininmonth (meteorologist)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

William Kininmonth is an Australian climate scientist noted for his views as an opponent of global warming theory and frequently writes on the topic of climate change. He believes that the warming trend of the recent century is not unusual, and he is critical of the simple model of climate systems represented by the IPCC. While Kininmonth believes that anthropogenic sources may make a small contribution to global warming, he believes the natural variability far exceeds that contribution, and this poses serious hazards for human kind.

Kininmonth suggests that it would be unwise to commit scarce resources to reduce carbon dioxide emissions when there is insufficient evidence to support the proposition that global warming is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. Like other global warming skeptics, such as Bjørn Lomborg, he believes that the diversion of resources from infrastructure projects, particularly in developing countries, would be counterproductive.

Kininmonth headed Australia's National Climate Centre from 1986 to 1998, with responsibilities for monitoring Australia's changing climate and advising the Australian government on the extent and severity of climate extremes. He was Australia's delegate to the WMO Commission for Climatology, was a member of Australia's delegations to the Second World Climate Conference (1990) and the subsequent intergovernmental negotiations for the Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991-1992).

Kininmouth is a science adviser to the Science and Public Policy Institute, formerly the Center for Science and Public Policy.




Oh dear. Well, who to believe? Sourcewatch, from which Muso cut and pasted;
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=William_Kininmonth

or Wiki. Or the Uni of melbourne's Australian Science and Technology Heritage Centre.

http://www.austehc.unimelb.edu.au/fam/1442.html
Interestingly, this link is from Source watch but their summation studiously avoids the facts in their own links. Very credible.

Sourcewatch knows about yet omits Kinninmonth's activities beetween 1986 and 1998. Credible? Not to me.




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mozzaok
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #170 - Nov 5th, 2008 at 4:53am
 
Quote:
While William Kininmonth is respected by his former colleagues at the Bureau of Meteorology and they agree about the climate's natural variability, they disagree that recent warming is natural. In a review to be published in March in the Australian Meteorological Magazine, University of Melbourne associate professor of meteorology Kevin Walsh will argue that Kininmonth has failed to present the case for natural warming. "Some of his detailed arguments are a little bit curious," Dr Walsh told The Age. "Some of his statements actually contradict well-accepted work."

But strangely enough, the Lavoisier Group heard that message on Monday night. In what seemed like a coup, Hugh Morgan had secured the respected John Zillman, former head of the Bureau of Meteorology, to launch the book. Dr Zillman agreed, but made it clear that there were significant parts of the book that he disagreed with. Dr Zillman, who is known to be quite conservative about climate science, said he was concerned about appearing at a Lavoisier Group book launch, but did so in the interests of debate.

He says he is not aware of any sceptic argument that has invalidated the mainstream science, and is now convinced - although would not have been 10 years ago - that it is mostly humans changing the world's climate. "I won't be expecting to be invited back as a regular," he said.



Does this man Kininmonth have the confidence to publish his studies for peer review?

I find it paradoxical that the denialist camp would site galileo's example of one man fighting the common belief of the flat earth, yet their behaviour is like that of the diehards who refused to accept that the earth was not flat, even after nearly all the other scientists had examined galileo's work and agreed with him.

I do not pretend to understand the science, but I do believe that those that do, agree on all the important principles and findings which attest to global warming.

Now, the odd voice, with the emphasis decidedly on the word 'odd', that choose to swim against the tide, for whatever reason, have the right, if they have the ability and the data to back themselves,  to publish studies for peer review, by the scientific community, which always maintains a healthy skepticism.
Now if they choose not to do that, but instead seek funding from industries whose focus is on maintaining the staus quo, to spread disinformation through media events, then they deserve to be ridiculed as the charlatans that they appear to be.
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #171 - Nov 5th, 2008 at 9:43am
 
It seems that only internet nutters try to compare themselves with people like Galileo to grasp some kind of credibility. What made Galileo special was that he was right, not the everyone thought he was wrong. For every Galilieo there are a million fools who just don't get it.

BTW, the ancient greeks knew that the earth was round.
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muso
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #172 - Nov 5th, 2008 at 10:43am
 
mozzaok wrote on Nov 5th, 2008 at 4:53am:
Does this man Kininmonth have the confidence to publish his studies for peer review?



He obviously has the confidence to parade his "studies" in the national press. He should actually have a press conference and introduce his Research Director, chief administrator and a few of the Research staff from the Australasian Climate Research Institute, which rumours have it will soon be named the Southern Hemisphere Climate Research Institute, or perhaps the Galactic Climate Research Institute. Maybe in the same parade, they could have some guest researchers from the US based Science and Public Policy Institute, since he is an advisor.

Another good idea is that they could all wear clothes made from their many volumes of research papers and parade down Flinders Street. What's the Victorian Government's take on imaginary clothing?


At which University did he actually qualify as a climatologist, anyway? - and who are the Universities registered to?  Grin
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #173 - Nov 5th, 2008 at 11:25am
 
People keep offering me degrees via email. I was thinking of graduating with a dozen or so degrees and appointing myself grand mufti of the Intergalactic Institute for Immensly Intelligent Individuals. That way I could also get a letter to the editor printed in the Australian.
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #174 - Nov 5th, 2008 at 1:18pm
 
Slight correction - Kininmonth did actually participate in one or two joint research papers. One of them was titled "A water balance model for rain grown lowland rice in Northern Australia". Agric. Meteorol., and it was published in 1972.

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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #175 - Nov 5th, 2008 at 9:31pm
 
I once tried to show this youtube clip to Grendel (AKA - Once was Geek warrior, "Beowulf") to prove a logical stance to take regarding climate change.
At that time he refused to look at it because he said that he couldn't look at youtube clips.
Well even though Grendel is supposed to be an enemy of Beowulf, they are the same beast, and Grendel doesn't seem to have the same youtube issues.

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ

So maybe you'd like to comment on it Grendel?
Probably not, because you know it's been my argument all along.


The only reason to not take any action would be that the climate change theory is so bizarre and outrageous that it could not possibly be true - say, 1 in a million chance.
Unfortunately, atm, we can't even hope beyond our wildest imagination that the GW hoax theorists have even a 99% chance of being correct.
So isn't the argument moot?


http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg
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« Last Edit: Nov 5th, 2008 at 9:38pm by Amadd »  
 
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muso
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #176 - Nov 7th, 2008 at 12:05pm
 
I've spilt the posts on renewable energy to a new topic.

Off-Topic replies have been moved to this Topic.
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Soren
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #177 - Nov 18th, 2008 at 11:17am
 
Computer modelling, eh?

..........
The world has never seen such freezing heat
By Christopher Booker
16/11/2008

A surreal scientific blunder last week raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming. On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record.

This was startling. Across the world there were reports of unseasonal snow and plummeting temperatures last month, from the American Great Plains to China, and from the Alps to New Zealand. China's official news agency reported that Tibet had suffered its "worst snowstorm ever". In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month, and ranked it as only the 70th-warmest October in 114 years.

So what explained the anomaly?



Find out at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml
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muso
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #178 - Nov 18th, 2008 at 2:06pm
 
Soren wrote on Dec 19th, 2008 at 5:17pm:
Computer modelling, eh?

..........
The world has never seen such freezing heat
By Christopher Booker
16/11/2008

A surreal scientific blunder last week raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming. On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record.

This was startling. Across the world there were reports of unseasonal snow and plummeting temperatures last month, from the American Great Plains to China, and from the Alps to New Zealand. China's official news agency reported that Tibet had suffered its "worst snowstorm ever". In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month, and ranked it as only the 70th-warmest October in 114 years.

So what explained the anomaly?


Find out at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml



A whole month's 'potential' anomaly eh? That must be of world shattering importance for Olympic Class straw-clutching champions such as Stephen McIntyre, who obviously has nothing better to do than agonise over one month's data.

Don't you think it's actually quite likely to have a short term cooling trend in any data set that shows an overall warming trend? I wonder what the statistical probability of every month showing seasonally corrected increases? Pretty slim I imagine.

Anyway, lets allow the data assimilation process to settle down before we declare any assertions to be bogus. It's just preliminary data that they are jumping up and down about after all.
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Soren
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Re: More facts for the deniers....
Reply #179 - Nov 18th, 2008 at 9:48pm
 
Good one. Are you consulting Lestat?

If it's preliminary data, why did GISS announce that October was the hottest month? Why not "allow the data assimilation process to settle down before we declare any assertions".







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