lee wrote on Oct 11
th, 2026 at 5:27pm:
: C- “Not an input” was poor wording. I meant that the modellers don’t type in an overbuild ratio; the optimiser picks the capacity mix that meets demand at least cost.
Assumptions.
lee wrote on Oct 11
th, 2026 at 5:27pm:
So overbuild is not specified, it depends on the modellers assumptions.
lee wrote on Oct 12
th, 2026 at 2:23pm:
The assumption that the grid on the east coast can rely on 2.6 hours of backup is laughable
BTW -u didn't respond to this - "Ah, you expect renewables to always be available on demand with firming?"
From the AEMO workings from CSIRO
"The 2025 Inputs and
Assumptions Workbook contains data provided by or collected from third
parties, and conclusions, opinions,
assumptions or forecasts that are based on that data.
AEMO has made reasonable efforts to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot
guarantee that information, forecasts and
assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your
circumstances.
"Updated cost and technology assumptions, including new distribution-connected mid-scale solar and
battery assumptions, and updated pumped hydro energy assumptions.
That is reaaly the long way to go about it. I did a word search of the AEMO paper. The word "Assumptions" appears 647 times.
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem...It is linked from -
https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/Electricity-transition/...