We are in a drought right now - that explains it.


https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/weather/severe-drought-fire-fears-for-...



Sky News predicts
Australia's scorched eastern states are set to fry further in 2026,
according to a Sky News analysis that puts the chance of an El Nino forming this year as high as 75 per cent.



The Melbourne CBD is seen under a blanket of smoke from Yarra Bend Road bridge in Fairfield. Picture: Brendan Beckett



Rob Sharpe
Sky News Australia Meteorologist
4 min read
January 28, 2026 - 5:00AM


South-eastern Australia is experiencing one of its worst heatwaves on record as drought lingers and fires burn.

And there are signs that conditions will get even worse in the next 12 months.

I can reveal that La Nina is about to end and an El Nino is on the horizon. 

Drought and fire
South Australia, Victoria and parts of New South Wales and Tasmania have endured drought for much of the past two years.

The dry landscape has played a key role in the current fire situation in Victoria – the worst since the last major drought which culminated in the Black Summer of 2019/20. 

During spring many of the hardest hit drought regions got decent rainfall, but the substantial falls hoped for didn’t materialize. 

The key was the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event from October to December. 

It brought extra cold fronts to southern Australia – particularly benefiting Tasmania. 

However, it reduced rainfall in NSW – seeing its driest spring in six years.

Google AI:


In June 2007, then-Victorian Premier Steve Bracks announced the construction of a major desalination plant near Wonthaggi, on the Bass Coast, as part of a $5 billion water strategy to secure Melbourne's water supply against climate change and drought. Despite previous concerns regarding the high cost and environmental impact, this reversal made it a key, albeit contentious, element of his water policy.


Key Aspects of the Bracks Desalination Plan:
Project Announcement: Announced on June 19, 2007, to ensure long-term, climate-independent water for Melbourne and Geelong.


Location: The plant was planned for the Bass Coast, with Wonthaggi identified as the site.
Opposition and Concerns: The decision faced significant local opposition from the Bass Coast community regarding environmental impacts, tourism, and landscape damage. Critics labeled the decision as a "hoax" shortly after the 2006 election, emphasizing the high cost and energy consumption.


Strategy Shift: The plan was a major shift from a previous focus on conservation and recycling, with the government facing criticism for ignoring cheaper alternatives.


Economic Impact: The project was predicted to double water bills, with later projections indicating a total cost of over $19 billion over 28 years in construction and operation.
The initiative was defended by Bracks as necessary for the state's future water security.

https://www.bom.gov.au/warning/severe-weather-warning/IDV21037




Northern Country, North Central and parts of Central,
North East, West and South Gippsland and Mallee Forecast Districts.



HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for central areas of the state today. The risk of heavy rainfall is possible around the western suburbs of Melbourne from the late morning, before becoming more likely as it extends over the eastern suburbs and the remainder of the warning area during the afternoon and evening. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 40 to 70 mm are possible. Conditions are expected to ease during Wednesday morning.


Locations which may be affected include Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Melbourne, Traralgon, Bacchus Marsh, Frankston, Warragul, Euroa, Yarra Glen, and Mansfield.

Safety advice

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.

* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.

* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.

* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.

* Stay indoors and away from windows.

* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.

* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.

* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.

Around here February-April used to be wettest months of year while May is dry but last couple of years it was opposite with "biggest ever" flood happened last May.

Hardly any rain where I am -

there were some minor floods in the city.

The weather forecast was wrong.

Bobby. wrote on Jan 29^th, 2026 at 4:20pm:


I live near a tidal river. The barrage separates the fresh water from the salt. And we get out water treated upstream for our drinking water. Everytime we get an inland rainfall event, whether it rains here or not, we get at least a minor flooding event.

This weekend, it is forecasted that we get 300mm of rain from a tropical low. A forecaster said that 500mm is not unlikely.

Whilst you are enjoying your desalinated water, we Rockhamptonites are going to be dealing with flooded streets and mozzies for the next week.