Whatever his policy, Peter Dutton will be a big target on workplace relations
Fri 18 Oct 2024
ABC News
Peter Dutton, wearing a suit and tie, glares from his seat in parliament.
Industrial relations could be dangerous ground for Peter Dutton in the upcoming election.
Peter Dutton has been receiving a good many political breaks recently — Anthony Albanese's new house is the latest icing on the cake.
Although the Coalition is not expected to win next year's election, presently it looks placed to do well.
So, as they prepare their campaign, what issue would Liberal strategists be most afraid of? My bet would be the looming battle over industrial relations. This could be more dangerous for Dutton than his risky gamble to promote nuclear energy.
With the election set to be fought largely around the cost of living, the government will reach for workplace issues as a potential lifeline.
Industrial relations is made for a ferocious Labor scare campaign that the Coalition will find extremely difficult to counter.
Government record could play well to outer suburbs
As the opposition keeps saying, the Albanese government has delivered extensively to the union movement's demands, especially on behalf of low-paid workers.
It has supported wage rises and will itself pay for some (notably for childcare staff).
It has legislated to protect the rights of casuals, provide minimum standards for gig workers, and stop employers using labour-hire arrangements to undercut wages.
Wage theft has been outlawed, domestic violence leave granted and the "right to disconnect" introduced.
Most importantly, multi-employer bargaining — hated by parts of business — has been facilitated, and this is sure to spread in coming years.
You don't need much of a head for political tactics to devise Labor's campaign.
It would go something like this: "The Albanese government has advocated for higher wages and given you all these benefits and protections, that the Liberals will strip back. Remember the Howard government's WorkChoices."
This could be potent among the lower-to-middle-income workers in the outer suburbs, to whom Dutton is pitching.
Coalition facing business wish list as it prepares its policy
As in most areas, the opposition says it will release its industrial relations policy closer to the election.
So far, it has promised to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission (the "cop on the beat") and the Registered Organisations Commission (a regulatory body governing unions and employer organisations).
It has also said it will repeal the right to disconnect, review the labour-hire law, change the definition of casual employment and reduce the regulatory burden on small business.
The Coalition is under pressure from business to agree to a wish list to tilt the playing field back towards employers. For instance, this week the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry called for the definition of small businesses to be expanded so that more firms would benefit from having fewer workplace burdens imposed on them.
The opposition must decide how many of the Labor changes it will pledge to roll back or alter. At the same time, it will have to try to reassure workers it doesn't have a hidden agenda. Both will be difficult.
On the roll back, employers will be pressing for the Coalition to go further than is politically wise. There are senior voices within the Coalition urging caution. But whatever Dutton says he won't do is likely to be met with scepticism by a distrustful electorate.
Regardless of the policy it announces, there'll be no way the Coalition can avoid becoming a big target on industrial relations.
Moreover, its argument that the government's IR changes are bad for the economy will be hard to prosecute because it will be some time before their full impact can be judged. The government itself has an independent review of its initial measures, due to report in January. That will allow it to either claim everything is hunky dory, or offer some fine-tuning.