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More from JM (Read 12828 times)

lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #165 - Sep 15^th, 2025 at 2:59pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2025 at 11:24am:

Quote:

An Annual Blast of Pacific Cold Water Did Not Occur, Alarming Scientists

[/size]
[size=12]The cold water upwell, which is vital to marine life, did not materialize for the first time on record. Researchers are trying to figure out why.

According to the article

Each year between January and April, a blob of cold water rises from the depths of the Gulf of Panama to the surface, playing an essential role in supporting marine life in the region. But this year, it never arrived.

“It came as a surprise,” said Ralf Schiebel, a paleoceanographer at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry who studies the region. “We’ve never seen something like this before.”

The blob is as much as 10 degrees Celsius colder than the surface water. In Fahrenheit terms, the water would be 18 degrees colder than the surface water. That cold water is also rich in nutrients from decomposing matter that falls to the ocean floor, providing food for local fisheries and wildlife.

Dr. Schiebel was one of the scientists who recently documented the lack of this yearly upwelling in a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and identified a likely culprit: The lack of strong trade winds, which typically blow across Panama and kick off the dry season in January. When the trade winds reach the Gulf of Panama they push hot surface water away from the coast, which makes room for cold water to rise from the deep.

Steven Paton, one of the paper’s co-authors, runs a large environmental monitoring program at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. The record he helps maintain shows the upwelling has taken place annually for at least 40 years. With that data and other long term records, “we can very clearly say something very unusual happened that we need to pay attention to,” he said.

As AGW keeps warming the world and its oceans we are going to see more unprecedented events. That is simple logic—you can’t change a system and expect it to work as usual.

A complex system of high and low pressure control trade winds:
Quote:

Trade winds, like the ones that drive the cold upwelling in the Gulf of Panama, typically form when air moves from high pressure to low pressure systems. But this year Panama saw only a quarter of the usual dry season trade winds and when they did emerge, it was only for a short period of time.

The Bermuda-Azores High is a high pressure system that moves around the Atlantic Ocean, affecting seasonal weather patterns across Europe, Africa and the Americas. A separate, low pressure system, known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, wraps around the Equator and moves south of Panama in winter. This southward movement, in combination with the difference in pressure from these two systems, causes the force that drives Panama’s dry season trade winds.

La Niña, the cool phase of an oscillating cycle of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, may have shifted the position of the low pressure system. Hot ocean surface temperatures may have also affected the strength of the two atmospheric systems. But the impact of these factors is unclear until more research is done, the researchers said.

Original paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2512056122#supplementary-materials

Article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/climate/pacific-cold-water-upwelling.html

Why the HELL doesn’t the high school dropout cover stuff like this in what is supposed to be the Environment board but isn’t? This lack of information and links is what is driving the OzPol SEO ranking down.

Now a one off event, so far, is a symptom of AGW. Grin

And for the first time in 40 years, does not sound like for the first time on record. But maybe records don't go back that far. Which doesn't of itself make it alarming. Neither does really small print. Grin

Size 12 usually looks

like this

, size 6

like this

But researchers don't understand why nut JM does. Grin

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #166 - Sep 16^th, 2025 at 1:29pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2025 at 8:21pm:

Quote:
Warning of climate breakdown and soaring heat deaths a ‘wake up call’ for Australia, PM says

National climate risk assessment report finds heat-related deaths would surge Quote:
450% in Sydney if global heating surpasses 3C

"Heat, cold, and temperature variability (TV) could increase mortality in Australia.
•
Mortality risk from any temperature exposure did not increase or decrease over time.
•
Cold posed the greatest mortality risk and cased the largest mortality burden.
•
TV posed the lowest mortality risk but cased more mortality burden than heat.
•
Heat, cold, and TV together accounted for about 6.0% of all deaths."

...
"There was no clear temporal pattern in mortality risk associated with any temperature exposure in Australia. Heat, cold and temperature variability together resulted in 42,414 deaths during the study period, accounting for about 6.0% of all deaths. Most of attributable deaths were due to cold (61.4%), and noticeably, contribution from temperature variability (28.0%) was greater than that from heat (10.6%).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969718340774

Proof that JM and Albo wouldn't know the difference between their arse and their albo. Grin

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 19471 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #167 - Sep 16^th, 2025 at 1:33pm
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #168 - Sep 22^nd, 2025 at 3:56pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 21^st, 2025 at 11:23pm:

Quote:

NASA satellites spot brand-new island in Alaska formed by melting glacier

Satellite images reveal a new island in Alaska's Alsek Lake, formed as retreating glaciers reshape the landscape.

AGW is melting sea ice and land based glaciers and ice sheets. This is undeniable.

Quote:

NASA satellite imagery has revealed a new island off Alaska's coast that emerged after long-standing glacial ice melted, isolating a small mountain that was once part of the mainland.

The island sits in Alsek Lake, where the Alsek Glacier has been steadily thinning and flooding the region with meltwater. Two Landsat images — captured on July 5, 1984 by the TM (Thematic Mapper) on Landsat 5 and on Aug. 6, 2025 by the OLI-2 (Operational Land Imager-2) on Landsat 9 — show the transformation in striking detail, according to a statement from NASA.

Alsek Glacier once wrapped around a small mountain known as Prow Knob. Over the past four decades, both arms of the glacier have retreated more than 3 miles (5 kilometers), carving out a proglacial lake in the process. The recent imagery confirms the glacier has now completely separated from Prow Knob, which is surrounded by water and officially an island, according to the statement.

https://www.space.com/science/climate-change/nasa-satellites-spot-brand-new-isla...

Ah, it is AGW everyone knows glaciers etc are static. Grin

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 113423 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #169 - Sep 22^nd, 2025 at 4:32pm lee wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2025 at 3:56pm: Ah, it is AGW everyone knows glaciers etc are static. Monk doesn't know.
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #170 - Sep 24^th, 2025 at 1:19pm

quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1758632781/0#0 date=1758632781] Quote:

Dangerous climate change threatens Northern Australia’s big ‘food bowl’ dreams

Australia’s worrying future under climate change was laid bare last week when the first National Climate Risk Assessment was released. It revealed extreme heat, fires, floods, droughts and coastal inundation already threatens lives and livelihoods – and will wreak further havoc in coming decades.

Much media attention focused on the effects in the continent’s south, where most Australians live. But the assessment found Northern Australia will be hardest hit on many fronts, including extreme heat.

This has major implications. Big plans are afoot to turn Northern Australia into Asia’s “food bowl”, as part of broader development for the region. It would involve building large-scale irrigation, dam and water infrastructure to increase agricultural production, create jobs and boost local economies.

But any discussion about transforming Northern Australia must confront the climate hazards threatening the region’s prosperity.

I have not had a detailed, in depth look at the National Climate Risk Assessment but I will and report here. We know from State of the Climate reports that the north will get hotter and wetter.

Quote:

What’s the food bowl idea?

Northern Australia comprises roughly 53% of Australia’s land mass.

Turning the region into a food bowl would involve irrigating savannas and other ecosystems across northern parts of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland. The concept dates back decades, but gained momentum in 2015 when the Abbott government released a national white paper on developing Northern Australia.

But AGW is going to potentially cause major problems to this concept—read the rest of the article.

https://theconversation.com/dangerous-climate-change-threatens-northern-australi... [/quote]

Ah the models. Bow down before the models.

Interesting fact - Cyclone intensity is a function of the differences bewtween the high and low pressure. In a warming world the difference NARROWS, so would mean the intensity would drop. Sea Surface Temperatures have been cited as a possible intensifier, but SST's are limited to about 30C, before convective cooling.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 24^th, 2025 at 7:45am:

Tropical cyclones Ragasa and Yasi represent one dangerous threat to a northern Australian food bowl. Ragasa being significantly stronger than Yasi indicates AGW is making tropical cyclones stronger.

True supposition. Haiyan was stronger than Ragasa. So according to JM that means no AGW. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 24^th, 2025 at 6:09am:

It was worse than Yasi, HUGE gusts!

Ragasa - Wind gusts 295Km/h

Haiyan - wind gusts 379Km/h

Wink

« Last Edit: Sep 24^th, 2025 at 1:29pm by lee »

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #171 - Sep 26^th, 2025 at 12:13pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 26^th, 2025 at 7:57am:

Quote:
China has announced its first target to cut emissions in real terms. What does it mean for Australia?

With China accounting for nearly a third of the world’s total emissions, any cuts it achieves will make a substantial difference for the world – and for fossil fuel exports

OUR fossil fuel exports—coal and LNG!

Quote:
Anything China does on energy and climate change is very big news. Its plans ripple around the world, whether that’s in changing the demand for fossil fuels or affecting the impacts on the planet from global heating.

On Thursday, Australia woke to the news that China’s president, Xi Jinping, had told the United Nations that for the first time his country was setting a target to cut – in absolute terms – its greenhouse gas emissions.

In a video address, Xi said China’s emissions would fall by 7% to 10% from their peak. When that peak happens he didn’t say, but some analysts think it may have already passed.

Sat beside a Chines flag and before a backdrop depicting a mountain range, Chinese president Xi Jinping delivers a video message, dressed in a dark blue suit and wearing a grey tie

Anthony Albanese had a lukewarm response to Xi’s announcement, saying it was “good that there is progress being made”, but “of course [Australia] would like there to be more”.

China’s emissions are about 29% of the global total – more than twice that of the United States, the world’s second-biggest emitter.

From the Guardian of course.

"I have a plan, I can't tell you when it will happen, but trust me." Grin

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 113423 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #172 - Sep 26^th, 2025 at 12:20pm Quote: China’s emissions are about 29% of the global total – more than twice that of the United States, the world’s second-biggest emitter. Monk doesn't know.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 19471 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #173 - Sep 26^th, 2025 at 2:20pm Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 26^th, 2025 at 1:09pm: According to the Saturday Paper the environmental threat to Australia is horrific with the government not releasing the report on this. True? Dunno, guess so. So the Climate Risk Assessment report wasn't about the environment. Oh dear.
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #174 - Oct 4^th, 2025 at 2:31pm

And the New York Times -

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 4^th, 2025 at 12:42am:

The new study found:
Quote:
Based on those 242 wildfires, the researchers found the number of disastrous wildfires had increased more than fourfold from 1980 to 2023. Nearly half of the fires, 43 percent, were in the last 10 years of the record. Additionally, there were 43 wildfire disasters that cost more than $1 billion in that same period. (The Trump administration said in May it would stop tracking billion-dollar disasters that occur in the United States.)

The findings contrast with those of the 2016 paper, now not even a decade old. But Cristina Santín, a wildfire scientist with the Spanish National Research Council and an author of that earlier paper, was not surprised that the new study had found a different answer from hers. She was glad to see an updated look at trends in damaging wildfires.

“This is proof that things are getting worse,” Dr. Santín said. “We need to adapt to live with fire. This is our reality, and it’s not going anywhere.”

The disastrous fires were largely clustered in the western part of North America, southern Europe and southern Australia, and mostly in affluent areas with high property values — but not exclusively.

Wildfire disasters also struck in the tropics and the far north, mostly driven by unusually strong droughts, and in more rural regions like Nepal that don’t often get Western media coverage. They hit every continent except Antarctica.

They found that the fires were closely associated with “fire weather,” which includes strong, dry winds, high temperatures and drought. Other research has found that fire weather is on the rise as a result of climate change.

“It’s clear that these events are driven by extreme weather,” Dr. Cunningham said. Climate change isn’t solely responsible for all the disastrous wildfires in the study, he stressed, but “it sets the stage” for them.

“Climate change is creating more opportunities for a catastrophic fire,” he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/climate/wildfire-damage-increasing.html

And then NASA has a reduction in area burned 2003 to 2015.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-...

or -

"However, some observers have noted that globally, the amount of area burned by wildfires each year has gone down over the last few decades.

If you look at statistics from the Global Wildfire Information System shown in the chart here, since the early 2000s, there has been a noticeable decline in the annual extent of land affected by wildfires.

https://ourworldindata.org/wildfires

And of course comparing wildfires to cost? Population increases, housing increases, goods owned increases and cost are expected to go down? Roll Eyes

And what wasn't included in that report by JM.v-

"Cunningham et al. examined data about the global distribution, frequency, and associated climate conditions of the most lethal and costly wildfire disasters from 1980 to 2023, finding that disaster risk was highest in regions near relatively affluent, populated areas, and that the frequency of economically disastrous wildfires increased sharply after 2015

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #175 - Yesterday at 3:03pm

Jovial Monk wrote Yesterday at 2:38pm:

Quote:

Picture a map of the world. The vast subcontinent of India spans roughly 3.2 million square kilometres.

An area larger than that burned in wildfires across the globe in the past year alone. From thousands of bushfires in Australia, to the deadly Los Angeles wildfires, to record-breaking blazes ravaging the Amazon and Congo, our planet has been burning.

Is this devastation attributable to climate change? Scientists from around the world worked together to find out. They used satellite imagery and computer models to confirm the answer, and have now published their findings in a landmark study.

That answer? Yes. The climate crisis is fuelling Earth’s extreme wildfires. But the scientists also want you to know – it’s not too late to act.

Quote is from The Conversation email. On to the article.

Link: https://theconversation.com/the-climate-crisis-is-fuelling-extreme-fires-across-...

Quote:

Human-caused climate change increased the area burned by wildfires, called bushfires in Australia, by a magnitude of 30 in some regions in the world. Our snapshot offers important new evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme fires. And it serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The evidence is clear – climate change is making fires worse.Human-caused climate change increased the area burned by wildfires, called bushfires in Australia, by a magnitude of 30 in some regions in the world. Our snapshot offers important new evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme fires. And it serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The evidence is clear – climate change is making fires worse.

You can just picture lee, can’t you? Quivering, ready to jump into action. Will his fatuous “More from JM” thread in what is supposed to be the Environment MRB go over 13 pages of fatuous crap? Who cares?

The article is based on this report:
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/5377/2025/

From Copernicus -

"During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA)."

What's that not the highest yearly area burned?

"Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA."

Oh Their "attribution analyses"? Oh dear.

"Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100."

There are only 232 mentions of models in the paper. Grin

poor JM gets his knockers knickers in a twist again, over the models. Grin

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 19471 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #176 - Yesterday at 4:56pm Jovial Monk wrote Yesterday at 4:49pm: Of course, I doubt the bonehead even read the very lengthy Abstract to the paper I cited. Poor JM. obviously didn't read what I wrote based on the paper Models all the way down.
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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 113423 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #177 - Yesterday at 4:57pm lee wrote Yesterday at 4:56pm: Jovial Monk wrote Yesterday at 4:49pm: Of course, I doubt the bonehead even read the very lengthy Abstract to the paper I cited. Poor JM. obviously didn't read what I wrote based on the paper Models all the way down. Monk doesn't know.
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