greggerypeccary wrote on May 14^th, 2023 at 2:55pm:


Sorry but that's not WG1- the Physical Science Basis.

Yoy do know El Niño–La Niña is a natural phenomena?

greggerypeccary wrote on May 14^th, 2023 at 3:02pm:



So you are quoting NOT the Physical Science Basis.

"Scenario 3 [one possible storyline among worst-case scenarios]:"

greggerypeccary wrote on May 14^th, 2023 at 3:10pm:


Poor petal. Only in your tiny little mind. But your objection is noted. I only rely on the science.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 14^th, 2023 at 3:10pm:



Poor petal. Doesn't like the science.

thegreatdivide wrote on May 14^th, 2023 at 6:04pm:



That's one estimate. From the underlying paper -

Country  Capacity factor
                    Offshore wind  Onshore wind  Rooftop PV   Utility PV 
United States 0.379               0.294            0.197            0.207

Also according to the paper you only require about 4 times overbuild.

Add to that the extra cost of batteries as everyone tries to build a bigger battery.

"The US solar capacity factor is 12% during its winter vacation and 21% during summer.  Wind works a bit harder – a 27% capacity factor during the summer/fall vacation and a 45% capacity factor the rest of the year."

Leen Weijers, VP Engineering, Liberty Energy

Can you see the problem yet? Solar and wind vary according to season as well as time of day.

https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/145Country/22-145Countri...

The original paper. Tables 11 and 12. Australia cost, based on their figures, would be about 1% of the total, so $620 billion dollars.

Bobby. wrote on May 14^th, 2023 at 8:04pm:


The same study as the one provided by TGD.

"Yet, a new study finds that those costs might only be short-term."

"The near failure of the Texas power grid, coming just 4 minutes and 37 seconds from a complete collapse on February 14, 2021, was the first alarm bell that something was dreadfully wrong with US power grids. Meredith Angwin, a physical chemist and power grid specialist, described the February 2021 failure of the Texas power grid failure as a seminal event that was not a surprise:

    Those of us who were watching the grid had noticed for years that Texas ran with a very low reserve margin…and there were predictions that Texas was going to be in trouble, [1],”

Since then, more power-grid operators have been speaking out about the increasing instability of their grids due to an over-weighting of non-dispatchable wind and solar power. A report on February 24, 2023, from the largest power grid in the US, PJM, warned of “increasing reliability risks” affecting 13 states and the District of Columbia and 65 million people who get their power from PJM. This report is a wake-up call for all US power grids because most face the same grid instability problems highlighted in the report:

    The growth rate of electricity is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region.
    The projections in this study indicate that it is possible that the current pace of new entry (of electricity generation capacity) would be insufficient to keep up with expected retirements and demand growth by 2030.
    Thermal generators are retiring rapidly due to government and private sector policies as well as economics.
    PJM’s interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources.

More grids have been warning that the addition of new wind and solar needs to be restrained and that retirements of dispatchable thermal generation—such as coal, nuclear and natural gas—need to slow.

This was emphasized by Manu Asthana, CEO of PJM, in a speech at the Electric Supply Association, on March 27, 2023, when he noted that new supply resources had not kept pace with retirements because of clogged interconnection queues, siting obstacles, and supply chain constraints:"

https://www.masterresource.org/texas-blackout-2021/grid-instability-ireland/

Yeah. Until the wind turbines, solar panels and batteries need replacing. And then another 62 billion.

"There is very little data on modern turbines reaching their life expectancy so it is largely unknown how long they will be operable. Modern wind turbines have over 8,000 parts (broken down into three major components) and blades as long as 262 feet, the same length as the wingspan of an Airbus [2]. With higher efficiency modern turbines due to additional electronic components and a more powerful and massive design, there is a higher chance of something going wrong with more potential points of failure and overall added stress and load on the structure.

"We don't know with certainty the life spans of current turbines," said Lisa Linowes, executive director of WindAction Group, a nonprofit [3]. With most wind turbines being installed in the last decade, it is largely unknown if they will make it to the designed 20-25 year life.

At 10 years of life, blades and gearboxes are needing to be replaced already so it is unlikely they will make it another 10 years. The cost to teardown a single turbine is $200,000, not including any payback from selling or recycling valuable materials, which is heavily labor intensive and not always cost effective. Instead of decommissioning, more often the site will be ‘repowered’ which means replacing the turbines with newer technology."

https://energyfollower.com/how-long-do-wind-turbines-last/

"The lifetime of photovoltaic modules is most commonly considered to be 25 years based on performance guarantees of 80% power output after 25 years of operation; however, influences including climatic conditions, social behaviour, fiscal policy, and technological improvements have the potential to prompt early replacement. "

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/9/5336

So, with luck, renewables will last half as long fossil fuel generation.

Only the west is dumb enough to go along with things like climate change, transgenda agenda, smart cities, neo liberalism etc etc etc

Shame really we used to be the smartest questioning everything.

These days we just get dictated to from the top down and no questions asked.

Its like we have been muzzled.

Will be interesting to see what effect brics (backed by gold) is going to have on the $US dollar.

If it goes down the toilet then we are close second.


Bobby. wrote on May 22^nd, 2022 at 9:33am:

Ajax wrote on May 15^th, 2023 at 12:30am:


That last item - neoliberalism - is the system in place in most of the world at present, overseen from the IMF and World Bank down), though China has a large proportion of SOEs, and the US has recently passed the CHIPS, and IRA Acts which are massive government interventions (into the neoliberal 'free market') in an attempt to counter China's growth.

Quote:
   

BRICS are certainly discussing use of a common currency or employment of currency swaps based on their own currencies, to bypass the US dollar, but it's not based on gold.

eg the Chinese economy has grown  so rapidly in the last 2 decades, there  isn't enough gold in China or the world to back the currency and trade with the rest of the world - which is the same reason Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971. 

Quote:


Not really. China is already the world's largest producer of renewable energy, and plans to reach maximum carbon emissions by 2035, and be carbon neutral by 2060, while it also attains developed nation status  (ie, 1st world gdp per capita levels).   

lee wrote on May 15^th, 2023 at 7:06pm:


See how ideological blindness destroys the capacity for rational analysis...

"China is already the world's largest producer of renewable energy, and plans to reach maximum carbon emissions by 2035" 

Hint: China with its huge population  is still a developing economy, cf the 1st world economies including Oz which is as big as a midsize Chinese city...