"It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future" -

Variously attributed to -

Niels Bohr, Samuel Goldwyn, K. K. Steincke, Robert Storm Petersen, Yogi Berra, Mark Twain, Nostradamus, Anonymous.

I have now hidden the New Ice Age thread

until David DuByne starts replying to messages on YouTube.
I'm fed up with his monologue -
debate is a 2 way street and he has broken that rule.
He also could have replied here to some of the questions
put to him but he never did.
He left it all to me and I was having to take the heat
for his stories.
That doesn't mean to say that he is wrong only
that he's not prepared to debate.

The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 28^th, 2019 at 11:30am:



Yes petal. And speaking from more than 60 years experience I give those that do a credibility rating of ZERO.

The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 28^th, 2019 at 11:30am:



And yet that is entirely the problem.

We DON"T know whether clouds have a net positive effect as per the IPCC.

We DON"T know the amount off CO2 outgassed by the oceans.

And they are two of the major players.

But of course you could always share with us your detailed knowledge of the above and tell us within two decimal what those figures are.

Surely that is not TOO difficult for one as supposedly well educated as you.

The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 28^th, 2019 at 12:12pm:



And only the models tell us that the warming is solely or even majorly  is CO2 induced.

The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 28^th, 2019 at 12:12pm:



Yes petal. Or even 2C or 5C.

The climate models are crap.

So tell us how many parameters are used in the models pet. You know those things that aren't well understood and have a fixed value arbitrarily attached.

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."  John von Neumann.

Perhaps it is time you started telling us about the "science".

But you would rather concentrate on one part than look at the whole.

The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 28^th, 2019 at 12:12pm:


The nirvana fallacy? I have not said anything about the nirvana temperature of the earth. Perhaps you have access to information and will relate it.

Here is a little bit about clouds -

"they create artificial climates that mathematically resemble the real one: their temperatures and winds are accurate to within about 5%, but their clouds and rainfall are only accurate to within about 25-35%. Such models can also accurately forecast the temperatures and winds of the weather many days ahead when given information about current conditions.

Unfortunately, such a margin of error is much too large for making a reliable forecast about climate changes, such as the global warming will result from increasing abundances of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), predicted to take place in the next 50 to 100 years, is expected to change the radiation balance at the surface by only about 2 percent. Yet according to current climate models, such a small change could raise global mean surface temperatures by between 2-5°C (4-9°F), with potentially dramatic consequences. If a 2 percent change is that important, then a climate model to be useful must be accurate to something like 0.25%. Thus today's models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy, a very challenging task. To develop a much better understanding of clouds, radiation and precipitation, as well as many other climate processes, we need much better observations."

https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/role.html

So even NASA GISS believe the models are crap.

I would really love some feedback from you that addresses those issues.  But I don't really expect it. More likely is another drive by sniping.

If you have doubts about the reality of Human induced Climate Change ...

Just follow the money. 

Hail, cyclones and fire: Extreme weather risks on the rise

By Peter Hannam
November 1, 2019 — 12.00 am

Sydney and Melbourne will most likely be exposed to more intense hailstorms, tropical cyclones will track further south and bushfire risks will increase in most of Australia as the climate warms, new research shows.

The modelling based on a 3 degree temperature rise is contained in a severe weather report to be released on Friday by IAG, the country's largest general insurer, and the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research.

"Climate change is not just about the future," the report states. "There is already solid evidence that there have been measurable changes to weather and climate extremes with the [1 degree of] warming to date."

Changing insurance claims data are among the indications that major damaging hail events for Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne have already been increasing in the past decade.

The greater potential energy in a hotter atmosphere and the access to greater moisture sources from warmer sea-surface temperatures will increase the hail risk. A region from the Hunter in NSW down to Melbourne, including the ACT, faces the largest projected changes to the current hail climatology, the report found.

Warming seas will also fuel tropical cyclones of about one category stronger compared with the sea temperatures of the 1950s.

"There has already been a southward shift of the regions where tropical cyclones reach peak intensity and this is expected to continue," it said.

"Tropical cyclone risks are therefore expected to increase most rapidly in the south-east Queensland [to] north-east NSW regions, followed by the coastal districts south of Shark Bay in Western Australia."

As has been identified by the Bureau of Meteorology, the report found extreme fire weather - based on temperatures, wind speed, humidity and drought - is already on the rise, especially in south-eastern Australia.

Such risks are "likely to increase in almost all locations nationally, leading to more frequent and extreme events, and longer fire seasons", it said.



Insurance and other financial firms have been reassessing their risks to climate change, prodded in part by international groups such as the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.

IAG managing director Peter Harmer said there was "an urgent need for Australia to
prepare for and adapt to climate change".


"[It] is critical there is a co-ordinated national approach from governments, industries and businesses to build more resilient communities and reduce the impact of disasters."

Executive manager of natural perils at IAG Mark Leplastrier said that, apart from reducing greenhouse gas emissions, communities had two main tools to shape the future risk profile: the tightening of land planning and improving building codes.

"There's a huge opportunity to adapt," he said.

For instance, research from Queensland showed that improvements in roof flashing to keep water from entering homes during heavy rain could spare owners huge expense. Flashing may cost about $5 a metre but could save about $1000 per metre, he said.

Higher sea levels were another big peril facing Australia, with rises as much as 30 per cent faster than the global average.

"The higher increases are simulated in the Tasman Sea," the report found.





https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/hail-cyclones-and-fire-extr...

The good news is: despite the sloth concerning action on Global Warming ... last week in Oz we had a day with > 50% of our power coming from renewables. 

Renewable energy supplies more than half of Australia's national electricity market for first time

By Markus Mannheim


PHOTO: South Australia's exports of green energy contributed to Wednesday's record performance. (ABC News: Nick Harmsen)

A major milestone was reached in Australia's biggest electricity market this week when renewable energy supplied more than half of the grid's power.

Green energy sources — mostly solar and wind — met most of the demand for the national electricity market (NEM) just before lunchtime on Wednesday, surpassing 50 per cent of supply for the first time.

The NEM provides power to all jurisdictions except Western Australia and the Northern Territory, which have separate grids.

Angus Gemmell, the founder and head of renewable energy firm Solar Choice, hailed the achievement, saying it showed Australia was rapidly reducing its reliance on fossil fuels such as coal.

"It came probably a bit sooner than expected … but it's a pivotal moment to — for a 10-minute period yesterday — have more than half of all the electrons on the main grid, this vast contiguous grid, being clean and coming from renewable resources."

Green power surge

Ideal weather conditions on Wednesday had made the unanticipated achievement possible, Mr Gemmell said.

These included the combination of strong winds blowing across most of south-east Australia and a "very clear sunny day".

"Also, it wasn't super hot, so there weren't a lot of air-conditioners working across the country at the time," Mr Gemmell said.

However, industry observer Giles Parkinson, who edits the Renew Economy website, noted the 50 per cent milestone was reached even though renewable energy providers were operating below capacity.

South Australia, a renewable powerhouse, was exporting green power across its borders on Wednesday but four out of five solar farms in Victoria were not at full capacity.

Mr Parkinson said the green energy industry was poised to expand rapidly, with new solar and wind generators, as well as large batteries, about to connect to the NEM.

"What we'll see in Australia eventually is getting to 100 per cent [renewably supply] at certain times, but that excess of power won't be able to be exported anywhere — it'll have to be stored," he said.

Beyond coal and gas

Mr Gemmell said the industry was looking forward to the "rise of storage" — such as big batteries and pumped hydro-power — to allow Australians to switch from fossil fuels to clean energy.


Big batteries like the Tesla facility in South Australia will likely be a crucial part of future grids.
News Video

"Like rainfall, sunlight and wind is intermittent, but just as we learned to store water and rainfall in reservoirs a long time ago, we are on a very steep growth curve towards vast amounts of storage in Australia for energy," he said.

Mr Parkinson agreed, but warned a lack of direction from governments was holding back the energy revolution.

"We've been locked in a decades-old paradigm of coal providing baseload [energy] and gas providing the peak load," he said.

"Now we have a different paradigm, where the cheapest forms of generation are wind and solar."

Australia's energy markets, regulation and pricing needed to change to recognise technologies like batteries, Mr Parkinson said.

"We really need a plan to be put into place and, right now, we're not seeing that from any government, even though some of the state governments are calling out for it."

www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/half-of-biggest-electricity-market-supplied-by-gr...