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Nukes (Read 9478 times)
Brian Ross
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Re: Nukes
Reply #135 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:09pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 8:47pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 8:38pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 7:29pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 7:13pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 12:24pm:
No nukes have been used in war since WWII. How long do you think it would take a Muslim nation or some other tinpot dictatorship to develop and use them, if they were faced with the possibility of being the only nation on earth to wield them?


Ask the US as that was, until 1949 the exact situation that faced it, FD.

What people appear to be forgetting is that nuclear weapons are "Weapons of Last Resort", not first, particularly when faced by the real possibility of retaliation from other nations for using them...   Roll Eyes



Nuclear weapons could be used by Iran indirectly.

They could give one to Hezbollah to use on Israel
& then claim that they had nothing to do with it -
as Tel Aviv looked like Hiroshima.



You seem to think that Iran is so crazy they'd trust Hezbollah with a nuke.  Hezbollah are pretty much under the control of Iran but they contain sufficient crazies that no one would trust them with a weapon like a nuke.   Terrorists are by their very nature unstable.

Then there is the problem of them getting their nuke from southern Lebanon to Tel Aviv, Bobby.   The border between the two nations is tighter than a fish's arsehole.   It is heavily guarded by Israel - nothing gets across.   Mossad is well aware of what is happening in southern Lebanon and would become aware, quite quickly of Hezbollah getting a hold of a nuke.   Roll Eyes



Hezbollah getting a hold of a nuke is
perhaps the greatest undeclared fear that Israel has.


I think Israel is quite willing to declare it, Bobby.   Hezbollah are just one in a line of enemies Israel has created for itself.

Quote:
Israel knows that Iran would never fire a nuke at them from Iran
as Iran wouldn't exist an hour later.

So - Israel is terrified of Iran giving terrorists a nuclear missile.

It could arrive on a simple 40 tonne lorry.
Just one truck could carry such a missile -
even in pieces ready for assembly.


Missiles are harder to smuggle than a nuclear warhead, Bobby.  Everything that leaves Iran, the DPRK, China is closely monitored by the US, the UK, Mossad, the Russians.  You simply cannot just drape a tarp over a missile and think it won't be noticed...   Roll Eyes

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Brian Ross
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Re: Nukes
Reply #136 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:17pm
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 11:31am:
freediver wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 12:24pm:
No nukes have been used in war since WWII.


Two episodes in history you may be interested in FD:

1. a computer malfunction incorrectly alerted the Russians to a US first strike nuclear attack - to which the Russian officers were obliged by standard protocol to order a retaliatory strike. This would normally have happened, but was thankfully averted by a quick-witted and entirely non-compliant Russian officer on duty at the time.

2. President Nixon one late night was drunk and reportedly ordered a nuclear strike against the Vietnamese - as is his absolute prerogative as President. White house staff present at the time were able to delay him long enough to wake up Secretary of State Kissinger and summon him to talk him out of it.

How long before another drunk president decides on a whim to exercise his right to press the button on any nation he pleases? Forgive me if I see this as a more pressing and greater concern than the far-off possibility that some low resourced tinpot dictator may develop a nuclear threat somewhere in the unforeseeable future.


We have been closer to an open nuclear exchange than most people have ever realised...

Quote:
Able Archer 83 is the codename for a command post exercise carried out in November 1983 by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).[1][2] As with Able Archer exercises from previous years, the purpose of the exercise was to simulate a period of conflict escalation, culminating in the US military attaining simulated DEFCON 1 coordinated nuclear attack.[3] Coordinated from the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) headquarters in Casteau, Belgium, it involved NATO forces throughout Western Europe, beginning on November 7, 1983, and lasting for five days.

The 1983 exercise introduced several new elements not seen in previous years, including a new, unique format of coded communication, radio silences, and the participation of heads of government. This increase in realism, combined with deteriorating relations between the United States and the Soviet Union and the anticipated arrival of Pershing II nuclear missiles in Europe, led some members of the Soviet Politburo and military to believe that Able Archer 83 was a ruse of war, obscuring preparations for a genuine nuclear first strike.[3][4][5][6] In response, the Soviet Union readied their nuclear forces and placed air units in East Germany and Poland on alert.[7][8] The apparent threat of nuclear war ended with the conclusion of the exercise on November 11.[9][10][11]

Historians such as Thomas Blanton, Director of the National Security Archive, and Tom Nichols, a professor at the Naval War College, have since argued that Able Archer 83 was one of the times when the world has come closest to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.[12][13] Other incidents that also brought the world close to such a war include the Soviet nuclear false alarm incident that occurred a month earlier and the Norwegian rocket incident of 1995.[14]

[Source]




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Re: Nukes
Reply #137 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 12:38pm:
Israel is worried.


Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes
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Bobby.
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Re: Nukes
Reply #138 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:07pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Bobby. wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 12:38pm:
Israel is worried.


Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes



Israel is too small and weapons cross the border
from Syria every day into Lebanon.
Israel can't know what's in every shipment.
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Re: Nukes
Reply #139 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:45pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes



The Arabs attacked Israel the day after Israel declared independance, how did that work out for the Arabs bwian?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab–Israeli_War


Pakistan was created around the same time as Israel, did the muslims ever thank us for that , how many wars have they fought with India since they carved a chunk from them to create Pakistan?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts




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Re: Nukes
Reply #140 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 4:55pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:07pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Bobby. wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 12:38pm:
Israel is worried.


Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes



Israel is too small and weapons cross the border
from Syria every day into Lebanon.
Israel can't know what's in every shipment.



Oh, they have a reasonable idea, Bobby.  They have aircraft, drones, satellite surveillance. They have human intelligence. While not 100% absolutely sure, it is sufficient to keep track of any large trucks, carrying cylindrical objects on their backs...   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Brian Ross
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Re: Nukes
Reply #141 - Feb 1st, 2019 at 4:56pm
 
Baronvonrort wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:45pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes


The Arabs attacked Israel the day after Israel declared independance, how did that work out for the Arabs bwian?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab–Israeli_War


Pakistan was created around the same time as Israel, did the muslims ever thank us for that , how many wars have they fought with India since they carved a chunk from them to create Pakistan?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts



Anything material to the discussion, Baron?  No, it doesn't seem so.  Oh, dearie, dearie, me.  Tsk, tsk.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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Bobby.
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Re: Nukes
Reply #142 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 5:57am
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 4:55pm:
Bobby. wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:07pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Bobby. wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 12:38pm:
Israel is worried.


Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes



Israel is too small and weapons cross the border
from Syria every day into Lebanon.
Israel can't know what's in every shipment.



Oh, they have a reasonable idea, Bobby.  They have aircraft, drones, satellite surveillance. They have human intelligence. While not 100% absolutely sure, it is sufficient to keep track of any large trucks, carrying cylindrical objects on their backs...   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes



The Israeli air force actually bombs convoys of trucks
crossing the border from Syria day into Lebanon but
I'm sure they don't get them all.
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Bobby.
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Re: Nukes
Reply #143 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 6:17am
 
Pompeo announces suspension of nuclear arms treaty with Russia.



Jennifer Hansler

By Nicole Gaouette and Jennifer Hansler, CNN

Updated 1918 GMT (0318 HKT) February 1, 2019



https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/01/politics/us-russia-nuclear-arms-treaty-pompeo...

Washington (CNN)Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Friday that the US is suspending the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, a key pact with Russia that has been a centerpiece of European security since the Cold War.
"For years, Russia has violated the terms of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty without remorse," Pompeo said, speaking from the State Department. "Russia's violations put millions of Europeans and Americans at greater risk."
"It is our duty to respond appropriately," Pompeo said, adding that the US had provided "ample time" for Russia to return to compliance.

The long-expected suspension, which has raised concerns about a renewed arms race with Moscow and put European allies on edge, goes into effect on Saturday. Pompeo's announcement starts a 180-day clock to complete withdrawal unless Russia returns to compliance with the 1987 agreement.
President Donald Trump and his senior officials had been signaling for months that they were ready to pull out of the INF treaty, which the US accuses Moscow of violating since 2014.
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Re: Nukes
Reply #144 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 9:26am
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:05pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 9:32pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 7:13pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 12:24pm:
No nukes have been used in war since WWII. How long do you think it would take a Muslim nation or some other tinpot dictatorship to develop and use them, if they were faced with the possibility of being the only nation on earth to wield them?


Ask the US as that was, until 1949 the exact situation that faced it, FD.

What people appear to be forgetting is that nuclear weapons are "Weapons of Last Resort", not first, particularly when faced by the real possibility of retaliation from other nations for using them...   Roll Eyes


So Muslims would never open with them?


When you answer my questions, I might answer yours, FD.    Roll Eyes



Admitting defeat already?

Wouldn't it be easier to just think about what you post before posting it?

Don't answer that.
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Brian Ross
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Re: Nukes
Reply #145 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 9:27am
 
freediver wrote on Feb 2nd, 2019 at 9:26am:
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:05pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 9:32pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 7:13pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 31st, 2019 at 12:24pm:
No nukes have been used in war since WWII. How long do you think it would take a Muslim nation or some other tinpot dictatorship to develop and use them, if they were faced with the possibility of being the only nation on earth to wield them?


Ask the US as that was, until 1949 the exact situation that faced it, FD.

What people appear to be forgetting is that nuclear weapons are "Weapons of Last Resort", not first, particularly when faced by the real possibility of retaliation from other nations for using them...   Roll Eyes


So Muslims would never open with them?


When you answer my questions, I might answer yours, FD.    Roll Eyes



Admitting defeat already?

Wouldn't it be easier to just think about what you post before posting it?

Don't answer that.


When you answer my questions, I might answer yours, FD.    Roll Eyes
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Brian Ross
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Re: Nukes
Reply #146 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 2:12pm
 
Bobby, you might find this of particular interest:

Tracking sanctions-busting ships on the high seas

Now, apply that to the problem of someone trying to smuggle a nuclear armed missile somewhere...
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Frank
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Re: Nukes
Reply #147 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 2:34pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 4:56pm:
Baronvonrort wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:45pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes


The Arabs attacked Israel the day after Israel declared independance, how did that work out for the Arabs bwian?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab–Israeli_War


Pakistan was created around the same time as Israel, did the muslims ever thank us for that , how many wars have they fought with India since they carved a chunk from them to create Pakistan?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts



Anything material to the discussion, Baron?  No, it doesn't seem so.  Oh, dearie, dearie, me.  Tsk, tsk.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


Grin

That's  what you always say when you get a well deserved kick in the nuts for being stupid on purpose again, Bwian.
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Frank
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Re: Nukes
Reply #148 - Feb 2nd, 2019 at 2:39pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 4:56pm:
Baronvonrort wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 3:45pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 1st, 2019 at 1:21pm:
Israel has been worried ever since it came into existence, Bobby.   Being self-declared "God's chosen people", one would have thought it gave a measure of self-assurance as to one's position in the world.  To many Israelis, it doesn't seem to...   Roll Eyes


The Arabs attacked Israel the day after Israel declared independance, how did that work out for the Arabs bwian?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab–Israeli_War


Pakistan was created around the same time as Israel, did the muslims ever thank us for that , how many wars have they fought with India since they carved a chunk from them to create Pakistan?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts



Anything material to the discussion, Baron?  No, it doesn't seem so.  Oh, dearie, dearie, me.  Tsk, tsk.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


Grin

That's  what you always say when you get a well deserved kick in the nuts for being stupid on purpose again, Bwian.
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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
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Bobby.
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Re: Nukes
Reply #149 - Feb 3rd, 2019 at 12:33pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Feb 2nd, 2019 at 2:12pm:
Bobby, you might find this of particular interest:

Tracking sanctions-busting ships on the high seas

Now, apply that to the problem of someone trying to smuggle a nuclear armed missile somewhere...



Moving a missile in many small pieces over land
in say a dozen trucks is
totally different to huge ships at sea.


Do you know how small a short range nuclear missile can be?
It would only fly from Lebanon to Israel.

No wonder Israel is so nervous.
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« Last Edit: Feb 3rd, 2019 at 12:39pm by Bobby. »  
 
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