Australian Politics Forum - Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?

Bam

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Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:04pm

Targeting Tony Abbott: inside the micro-campaigns to unseat the former PM
Quote:

There is a groundswell in Warringah and – worryingly for Abbott – the disparate groups are coordinating.

If the posters popping up around Manly and sales of anti–Tony Abbott T-shirts are any gauge, the member for Warringah has a fight on his hands.

“There’s a huge amount of grassroots activity. Organisations are popping out of the ground everywhere. And we are finding each other,” says Louise Hislop, the convenor of Voices of Warringah.

(See link for full article.)

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The_Barnacle Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6205 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #1 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:42pm If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat
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April_Flowers New Member Offline Posts: 40	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #2 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:43pm The_Barnacle wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:42pm: If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat Such as?
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Bam

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #3 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 4:22pm

April_Flowers wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:43pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:42pm:

If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat

Such as?

A younger, more moderate candidate endorsed by the local branch of the Liberal party. The Liberals will be considering generational change after the next election. They should get started cleaning out the deadwood now or the electorate will start doing it for them at the election.

Abbott could be in trouble. If the voters decide to unseat an MP, they will do so. Remember what happened to Mirabella in Indi? Wentworth? If the Voices for Warringah groups coordinate around a good local independent, Abbott will be gone at the next election.

Abbott won't be the last Coalition MP facing a grassroots rebellion at the ballot box. Others may be in trouble.

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Pedro Curevo Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 500 Nth Coast NSW Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #4 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 5:15pm Nothing is certain in politcs it could be a good independent may unseat Abbott....its certain he needs to go the bloke is toxic to good government.
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matty

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #5 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone.

And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos??

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BILL SHORTEN WILL NEVER BE PM!!!!

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Dnarever Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 57150 Here Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #6 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.
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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #7 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 8:03pm matty wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm: Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. It's no different really to the Liberals' habit of disseminating their electoral propaganda on social media without proper attribution.
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Bam

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #8 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 8:17pm

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Did you read the article? You missed this salient point:

Quote:

Warringah is both similar and different to Wentworth.

In the 2016 election Abbott won handsomely with 61.5% of the two-party-preferred vote, beating the Greens candidate, Clara Williams Roldan, who leapfrogged Labor in the preference count to finish second.

But the primary vote tells a more nuanced and potentially worrying story for Abbott in the light of the Wentworth byelection. In 2016 Abbott attracted 51.6% of first preferences, down nine points on his 2013 result, while the ALP got 14.8%; the Greens 12.2% and the independent 11.4%.

If the independent can suppress Abbott’s primary vote to below 40% and come second ahead of Labor and the Greens, then a repeat of the Wentworth phenomenon is possible.

The ReachTel poll of 854 Warringah voters, undertaken for GetUp in September, suggests Warringah is now marginal. It put Abbott ahead 54% to 46% two-party-preferred, but found his primary support was at 39.3% against an unnamed independent who attracted 13.6% of the vote. Labor had 24.5%, the Greens 12.3%, and One Nation 4.3%.

Warringah has an 11.5% margin. It's not unusual for so-called "safe" seats on similar margins to fall in change-of-government elections. If this poll is accurate, Warringah is vulnerable.

A prominent independent (Australian Idol host James Mathison) got 11% of the vote against Abbott in 2016 on a short campaign. With a longer campaign, a similar prominent independent could take about 30% of the vote. Look what happened in Wentworth when that happened.

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Its time Gold Member Offline Boot libs out Posts: 25639 Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #9 - Nov 14^th, 2018 at 10:47pm He is Labors best asset, keep him there I say
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macman Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2435 australia Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #10 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 8:22am Your'e dead right there lefty. Tony's constant destabilisation of this pack of clowns is good to see. I think they should put him back in charge so the electorate can see once again what a fine leader they voted into power in 2013.
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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #11 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 8:33am The counterargument: losing Abbott to an independent would make the Coalition's election loss that much more humiliating. I don't expect Abbott to go gently if he's defeated. He'll still be sniping when he's out of politics.
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polite_gandalf

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #12 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:41pm

matty wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm:

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone.

And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos??

Incorrect Matty, he got 51.6% of the primary vote, a swing of -9.2%. The 61% was the final 2PP vote.

This election it will almost certainly go down to preferences.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
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Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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minarchist

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #13 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:54pm

I recall during the 2000's that Tony Abbott was more confident in the way he spoke and responded to questions. When he became opposition leader, that seemed to change and he was increasingly becoming more nervous. When he became PM, he stammered more when he spoke and was nowhere near as quick in answering questions. I don't know why his confidence diminished the way it did, perhaps becoming opposition leader and eventually PM increased his anxiety. If the pressure hadn't got to him, he still may be PM today.

Joe Hockey always came across as a bumbling fool when he spoke, I don't understand why he was ever chosen as treasurer. He explained economic topics as if he'd read half of "Economics in One Lesson" and said to himself "Yep, I've got the gist of this".

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People accuse Capitalism of being a "dog eat dog" system, yet it was the Communists who ate each other when they were starving!

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #14 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
Quote:

Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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