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« Created by: Aussie on: Apr 1st, 2018 at 7:33pm »

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Relationship to the truth (Read 94902 times)
Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #525 - May 1st, 2018 at 9:07am
 
Man is a stupid species. Not only does he poop in his own nest, unlike all other species, he destroys his own nest, logging in catchments. In Sydney’s case they mine coal in the water catchment Huh

https://www.itwire.com/climate/82596-forest-collapse-threatens-melb-water-supply...
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #526 - May 1st, 2018 at 9:08am
 
.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #527 - May 1st, 2018 at 10:30am
 


Fantastic animation of CO2 levels over the last 800,000 years. View at full screen to get the most information.

As you watch those CO2 levels inexorably rise and rise remember:

1. Glaciers are retreating

2. Arctic ice is decreasing in extent and in thickness/volume

3. Greenland is losing 280Gtons of ice a year

4. West Antarctic ice sheet is destabilised and the massive ice sheet is starting to slide into the sea

5. Even the East Antarctic ice sheet is starting to destabilise

6. Sea levels are rising and rising most off the east coast of the US

7. The North and South Jet Streams have slowed and weakened, contributing to extreme weather, like the bombognesis causing three north easters to hit the New England part of the US.

8. Even the Polar Vortex has been affected, we see warm Arctic Ocean and cold land.

9. Wildfires/bushfires grow bigger and more destructive and the wildfire season extend, making fuel reduction burns much more difficult.

Yes, CO2 and H2O do cause all this. Spectrometers on satellites show that as CO2 rises less thermal IR makes it out to space, more thermal IR is directed to the lower atmosphere and surface warming them. Emitting IR is how a black body cools down after receiving radiation, in this case sunlight. With less IR leaving the atmosphere the world cannot cool down and so it is warming up.

Please watch the animation, try to think of the consequences.

Animals don’t tend to poop in their own nests. We, “wise ones” not only poop in our own nests we act to destroy our nests (see the post re the Ash Forest that is Melbourne’s catchment.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #528 - May 1st, 2018 at 10:48am
 
There should be lively discussion of items such as this in Environment instead of stupid videos about a totally fantasy ice age. I will demolish the stupid half baked rationale for the so called ice age.

The principal underpinning of the ice age crap is:

1. Sunspots are reducing—reducing as we leave one solar cycle and enter the next, as happens every eleven years on average. The radiation, light etc, that we receive does not change during the change from one cycle to another.

2. Frauds say the decline is because the sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum whew there is a decades long minimum in the number of sunspots and the radiation emitted by the sun, especially UV radiation, decreases a tad

3. This Grand Solar Minimum will cause an ice age.

4. There is crap talk of the GSM causing vulcanicity and earthquakes, total poppycock as these are driven by events deep in the earths crust.

5. Galactic Cosmic Rays reach us because the suns magnetic field weakens during a GSM. These GCRs cause clouds to form. Do a Google search—CRs do cause nucleation in the atmosphere but the nuclei are too small by orders of magnitude to form clouds. We have more clouds because warmer seas evaporate more into warmer air that can hold 8% more moisture than it could 100 years ago.

6. The decline in radiation (TSI-Total Solar Irradiation, the amount of solar energy received at the upper limits of the atmosphere) will cause an ice age.


This last point is the crux of their argument: a tad less UV reaching us means we go into an ice age. Bullshit! A Maunder Minimum level of cooling would reduce temperatures by 0.13–0.3°C. The world has warmed 1.2°C since 1880 so a tiny bit of cooling would hardly be noticed—and AGW will warm the globe by more than that tiny bit of cooling before long anyway.

Point 4 is interesting. The frauds and their dupes put a lot of stock in this but it is wrong as I said above. Why this is mentioned is that heavy vulcanicity was thought to be a trigger for the Little Ice Age 1300–1850 or so. We have not had any unusually active vulcanism so they twist that into saying the Ice Age causes earthquakes and volcanoes so they keep the connection to volcanoes, see?

Pure snake oil is what these frauds are selling.

Oh yeah, the clever dupes say the Arctic/Greenland ice melting will stop the Gulf Stream and so plunge the UK and Europe into an ice age. An ice age with hot summers  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin  The Gulf stream moderates summers as well as winters. Pure fantasy, pure snake oil on the part of the fraudsters like Dubyne. We have put 46% more CO2 in the atmosphere, I doubt anything like the LIA will happen if the Gulf Stream slows significantly.

The slowdown we have seen has boosted sea level rise off the US east coast. It also means the heat in the current accumulates and this heat fed Hurricane Sandy as it travelled northwards until it hit New York and also fed Hurricane Ophelia as it moved toward the British Isls.

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lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #529 - May 1st, 2018 at 11:29am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 12:48am:
Quote:
The largest cruise ship to ever sail the Northwest Passage is en route to New York City from Alaska.

The Crystal Serenity left Seward, Alaska, in mid-August and plans to dock in New York on Sept. 16.

The ship sailed up the Bering Strait, and made a port call in Nome where guests got a chance to see a herd of wild musk oxen that had taken up residence just outside town. The ship then continued north until reaching the Arctic Ocean, and then east toward Greenland.

The melting Arctic is making this type of trip possible. The irony isn’t lost on Michael Byers, a professor in the political science department at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. He calls it “extinction tourism.”



Interesting. Not a word about no ice breaker support.

"During the route of the Northwest Territories the ultra-luxury ship will be accompanied by the RRS Ernest Shackleton, a powerful and high ice classed vessel with a crew that has years of experience operating in polar conditions."

https://www.crystalcruises.com/news/2018/01/17/crystal-embarks-on-historic-journ...

"RRS Ernest Shackleton icebreaker Review and Specifications"

http://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/RRS-Ernest-Shackleton-icebreaker-1777

Wow. Another misstatement of truth. AKA something that is not factual.

And yet you accuse others.  Shocked
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #530 - May 1st, 2018 at 11:48am
 
It was accompanied by an icebreaker. Said icebreaker was never needed on the voyage. I think you will find that on earlier comments I mentioned the icebreaker. I just found what your google skills were inadequate to find.
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lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #531 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:02pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 10:30am:
Fantastic animation of CO2 levels over the last 800,000 years



But only if you believe the ice core data.
So what is the error margin for a 800,000 year sample? The more data you cram in the greater the loss in definition; meaning you can't see spikes of shorter duration.

Now if we look at Marcott 2013 we see they " combined published proxy temperature records from across the globe to develop regional and global temperature reconstructions spanning the past ~11,300 years with a resolution >300 yr; previous reconstructions of global and hemispheric temperatures primarily spanned the last one to two thousand years. "

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/

Wow. 300 years in less than 12,000. Now try to extrapolate that out to 800,000 years.Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 10:30am:
As you watch those CO2 levels inexorably rise and rise remember:

1. Glaciers are retreating

2. Arctic ice is decreasing in extent and in thickness/volume

3. Greenland is losing 280Gtons of ice a year

4. West Antarctic ice sheet is destabilised and the massive ice sheet is starting to slide into the sea

5. Even the East Antarctic ice sheet is starting to destabilise

6. Sea levels are rising and rising most off the east coast of the US

7. The North and South Jet Streams have slowed and weakened, contributing to extreme weather, like the bombognesis causing three north easters to hit the New England part of the US.

8. Even the Polar Vortex has been affected, we see warm Arctic Ocean and cold land.

9. Wildfires/bushfires grow bigger and more destructive and the wildfire season extend, making fuel reduction burns much more difficult.

Yes, CO2 and H2O do cause all this. Spectrometers on satellites show that as CO2 rises less thermal IR makes it out to space, more thermal IR is directed to the lower atmosphere and surface warming them. Emitting IR is how a black body cools down after receiving radiation, in this case sunlight. With less IR leaving the atmosphere the world cannot cool down and so it is warming up.

Please watch the animation, try to think of the consequences.

Animals don’t tend to poop in their own nests. We, “wise ones” not only poop in our own nests we act to destroy our nests (see the post re the Ash Forest that is Melbourne’s catchment.



"Humans have, and always have had, a major impact on wildfire activity, which is expected to increase in our warming world. Andela et al. use satellite data to show that, unexpectedly, global burned area declined by ∼25% over the past 18 years, despite the influence of climate. The decrease has been largest in savannas and grasslands because of agricultural expansion and intensification. The decline of burned area has consequences for predictions of future changes to the atmosphere, vegetation, and the terrestrial carbon sink."

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356

I guess that extra CO2 is suppressing fires quicker. Wink
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #532 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:04pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 11:48am:
It was accompanied by an icebreaker. Said icebreaker was never needed on the voyage. I think you will find that on earlier comments I mentioned the icebreaker. I just found what your google skills were inadequate to find.


So there was icebreaker support. Wink

Plus of course all the extra special navigation gear. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #533 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:16pm
 
Looks like the Arctic is about to heat up again:

Quote:
It’s been consistently, abnormally, warm in the Arctic for about as long as any of us can remember. But during recent years, the changes — caused by a massive and ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere — appear to be speeding up. . . .

This week, two major warm air invasions — one issuing from Siberia and another rising up through the Fram Strait and extending north of Greenland are expected to bring locally 10-20 C above normal temperatures and accelerate early season sea ice melt in an already reeling Arctic.



Greenland had an odd little bump of melting on the south east coast before the usual start of the melt season.

Quote:
Consistent Warmth, Record Low Sea Ice

The farthest north region of our world has just come out of a winter during which sea ice extents consistently entered never before seen daily low ranges. With the advent of spring, sea ice measures have rebounded somewhat from winter record lows. However, according to Japan’s Polar Research Division, we are presently experiencing the second lowest daily sea ice extents since consistent measurements began.


The sea ice extent is lower than the unusually low 2012 extent and the extent in Jan–Feb was the lowest seen:
...

Quote:
Major Spring Warm Air Invasion

Today, a wedge of above-freezing air is invading the Laptev Sea north of Central Siberia. Strong southerly winds issuing from Central Asia are running north into the Arctic Ocean. They bring with them 10 to 20 C above average temperatures for this time of year — which is enough to push readings as high as 35 degrees F (2 C) over what during the 20th Century would have been a solid fringe of the polar ice cap.

Over the next 24 hours, this leading edge of warm air will spiral on toward the East Siberian Sea — bringing above freezing temperatures and liquid precipitation with it.


...
Image source: Climate Reanalyser

Wow! I was thinking that next NH winter would see more of this hot air entering the Arctic, didn’t think it would happen in spring!

Quote:
But the main warming event for the Arctic this week will occur in the region of the Fram Strait east of Greenland. A strong low pressure system near Iceland is expected to drive wave after wave of much warmer than normal air north into the Arctic. This warm air thrust will bring with it temperatures in some places that exceed 20 C above average. Overall, Arctic Ocean basin temperatures are expected to average more than 2.3 C warmer than normal for the entire first week of May. Such high temperature departures are particularly notable for this time of year — as Arctic thermal variance tends to moderate during spring and summer.

The system will push above freezing temperatures deep into the Arctic — generating a repeat of the strange flip-flop that has become so common recently where temperatures near the North Pole are much warmer than readings further south. Warmer than freezing temperatures will also over-ride coastal portions of northeastern Greenland in yet another odd aspect of the event.

Warm storm effects including gale force winds and waves of 8-12 feet will provide added effect to above freezing temperatures in impacting the sea ice throughout the Fram Strait and northeast Greenland region.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/30/major-arctic-warming-event-predicted-over...
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #534 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:46pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 12:16pm:
The sea ice extent is lower than the unusually low 2012 extent and the extent in Jan–Feb was the lowest seen:



Can't tell from your spaghetti graph. Can you remember what made 2012 so special. Wink

Wow. The daily figures shows 6.4% lower than the median, coming down from that anomalous 1979 high. Wink
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #535 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:49pm
 
Then go here and play around to your hearts content.

To me the chart shows perfectly clearly that the ice extent in the winter just past was the lowest on record, with some recovery in early spring. Not hard to discern especially the record low winter sea ice extent..
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #536 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:52pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 12:49pm:
Then go here and play around to your hearts content.

To me the chart shows perfectly clearly that the ice extent in the winter just past was the lowest on record, with some recovery in early spring. Not hard to discern especially the record low winter sea ice extent..



6.4% below the median? on estimations? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

2016 shows lower than 2018. 2016 13.213m sq km, 2018 13.378m sq km.

Record low?
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #537 - May 1st, 2018 at 12:57pm
 
And? You want 64%? Be a different world.

And do you think you can do other than estimate such a vast area?

You think all models, simulations, statistics, estimations are frauds.

Models have improved and some are so good that they are used in attribution research. Some subjects like the weather are so vast models is the only way you can work with them. Some climate models 20 years ago might have been primitive, inaccurate but the world has moved on. Eighteenth century man Lees cannot move on. The Guardian is still the Garudian to him—makes you look like a fossil, a stick in the mud.

Record low in the winter months, as I said.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #538 - May 1st, 2018 at 1:01pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 12:57pm:
And? You want 64%? Be a different world.

And do you think you can do other than estimate such a vast area?

You think all models, simulations, statistics, estimations are frauds.

Models have improved and some are so good that they are used in attribution research. Some subjects like the weather are so vast models is the only way you can work with them. Some climate models 20 years ago might have been primitive, inaccurate but the world has moved on. Eighteenth century man Lees cannot move on. The Guardian is still the Garudian to him—makes you look like a fossil, a stick in the mud.


No but climate models on the other hand... Wink

So 2016 ice extent 13.213m sq km; 2018 sea ice extent 13.378m sq km.

New record? or is that like the hottest evah year figures.

And they still use those old models. They use data from stations that are no longer in existence. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #539 - May 1st, 2018 at 1:03pm
 
lee wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 1:01pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2018 at 12:57pm:
And? You want 64%? Be a different world.

And do you think you can do other than estimate such a vast area?

You think all models, simulations, statistics, estimations are frauds.

Models have improved and some are so good that they are used in attribution research. Some subjects like the weather are so vast models is the only way you can work with them. Some climate models 20 years ago might have been primitive, inaccurate but the world has moved on. Eighteenth century man Lees cannot move on. The Guardian is still the Garudian to him—makes you look like a fossil, a stick in the mud.


No but climate models on the other hand... Wink

So 2016 ice extent 13.213m sq km; 2018 sea ice extent 13.378m sq km.

New record? or is that like the hottest evah year figures.

And they still use those old models. They use data from stations that are no longer in existence. Grin Grin Grin Grin



Hi Lee,
it's best to ignore Monk - he's a lunatic.
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