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« Created by: Aussie on: Apr 1st, 2018 at 7:33pm »

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Relationship to the truth (Read 94894 times)
Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #435 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 12:35pm
 
Quote:
Based on the “Younger Dryas” experience – not just colder winters in N. Europe – but also so humdinger summers. Stockholm University reports . .

“While winters become extremely cold, our study shows that European summers might get even warmer. While warm summers do not sound bad, the mechanism leading to this additional warming is responsible for several of the worst heat waves and droughts in Europe.”


https://www.su.se/english/research/profile-areas/climate-seas-and-environment/co...

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lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #436 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 1:00pm
 
Wow. Corals survived that? Or was it just the landmass?
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lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #437 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 1:13pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 25th, 2018 at 12:35pm:
https://www.su.se/english/research/profile-areas/climate-seas-and-environment/co...



"Although the last major climate shock in response to a partial collapse of the AMOC 12 000 years ago took place under quite different conditions, new climate model simulations emphasize a potentially worrisome analogy to today’s situation."

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #438 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 1:17pm
 
Yeah.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #439 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 9:07pm
 
RealClimate on a possible slow down of the AMOC:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/04/stronger-evidence-for-a-we...

Quote:
The first data series – from calcareous shells of marine organisms that live 50 to 200 metres below the sea surface in the northern Atlantic – shows the temperature conditions there. From these, the strength of the heat transport and thus the flow can be deduced, similar as in our study. A second data series is based on the grain size of the sediments at two points at a depth of 1700 and 2000 metres – where part of the water brought northwards by the Gulf Stream flows back towards the south as a cold deep current. The neat thing is that the current sorts the sediment. Coarse grain size of the sediments indicates a strong flow, finer grain size indicates a weaker flow, to put it as a simple rule of thumb.


So as well as the “fingerprint” of a slowing AMOC—the temperatures and sea levels—there is some paleoclimate evidence.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #440 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 9:20pm
 
Hmmm so much for the “CO2 lags temperature increases” call:

Quote:
April 24 (UPI) -- The end of the last ice age was precipitated by a shift in the circulation of the North Pacific Ocean some 15,000 years ago.

According to new research by scientists at the University of St. Andrews, the altered circulation released large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, warming Earth's climate.

Scientists modeled the ancient shifts in circulation and ocean-atmosphere gas exchange by measuring the chemical composition of foraminifera, the tiny fossil shells left behind by plankton. Their analysis -- published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience -- revealed an uptick in the amount of CO2 released by the North Pacific beginning 15,000 years ago. Previous studies have found evidence of shifting circulation patterns in the Atlantic at roughly the same time.


https://www.upi.com/https:/www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/04/24/Shift-in-ocean-ci...

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #441 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 9:22pm
 
Quote:
Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean heat transport might lead to hot European summers
Severe winters combined with heat waves and droughts during summer in Europe. Those were the consequences as the Atlantic Ocean heat transport nearly collapsed 12,000 years ago. The same situation might occur today, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.


Barbara Wohlfarth and Frederik Schenk during field work. The ancient lake site of Hässeldala in southern Sweden is one of the sites used in their study to reconstruct summer temperatures in the past from lake sediment cores. Photo: Laura Parducci
Record-breaking cold ocean temperatures across the central North Atlantic in recent years suggest that the northward oceanic heat transport through the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has reached a long-term minimum and might be the weakest for at least 1,000 years. Most climate models project that the already observed slowdown will continue under global warming scenarios although a complete collapse appears unlikely – at least based on current models.


https://www.su.se/english/research/profile-areas/climate-seas-and-environment/co...

A recent European heatwave killed 70,000 people, rather more than the Beast from the East did.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #442 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 9:38pm
 
Re the death of some of the reefs within the GBR:

Quote:
LETTER
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2
Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages Terry P. Hughes1*et al.

Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them1. Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 20162, corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3–4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world’s largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems3, by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0041-2.epdf
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #443 - Apr 25th, 2018 at 9:40pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 25th, 2018 at 9:22pm:
A recent European heatwave killed 70,000 people,



yeah, or 52000 or some other figure.


Isn't it amazing how statistics can give such wildly variable outcomes.

"Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003 "

" According to the Italian National Institute of Statistics, the summer of 2003 yielded more than 18,000 excess deaths when compared with 2002"

http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2006/update56

Excess deaths - those over and above those anticipated.

Statistics you gotta love them. Note: they didn't actually do autopsies on them all to find out how they died. Wink
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #444 - Apr 26th, 2018 at 4:34am
 
Agnes says “we have to wait and see” whether the world warms or we get an ice age.

Nope, Agnes, we do not.

By burning fossil fuels we have put 46% more CO2 in the atmosphere than there was in the 1800s. CO2 and water vapor block infrared radiation from leaving the earth and its atmosphere. This has been shown by spectroscopic observations from spectrometers in satellites and spectrometers on the surface: the more CO2 the less IR escapes to space and the more IR is redirected back down to the surface.

Infrared radiation is the only way the earth can cool down. Since a lot of the infrared is being blocked and redirected back to the surface the planet cannot cool down and so we see the 1.2°C warming since 1880.

Now, Dubyne’s idiotic spiel is that the sun is going into a Grand Solar Minimum, few sunspots, less radiation leaving the sun and hitting the Earth. This, the lying fraud says, will cause a small ice age. Poppycock.

A GSM of Maunder Minimum strength will reduce temperatures by 0.3°C. Remember we have warmed by 1.2°C. So, tiny bit of cooling but the CO2 and the methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (B2O) are still in the atmosphere and are still being added to by us so that little bit of cooling will soon be offset by AGW and the world will start warming again. That will not take many years at all.

So the Ice Age™ that Booby and The Moronic bore us with is a fantasy ice age.

If you hate summer and like cool weather no point hoping for an ice age that is not going to happen  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Much better would be to move to Ballarat or Melbourne or Tasmania.

I hate Adelaide’s summers, they are becoming more humid every year and the traffic is getting crazy. So I am moving to Tasmania and will enjoy what it has to offer, cool summers, cider apples, cherries, the Salamanca Market and so on. Parts of NSW offer cooler summers, especially on highlands near the coast (ask Setanta) but won’t give the cold weather you say you like.

Or listen to Booby and in 5 years realise the idiotic ice age is not happening and then try to do something. Land values in Tassie are rising—don’t leave it too long.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #445 - Apr 26th, 2018 at 10:19am
 
ehehehehehe roach doesn’t get what Barnacle is saying, talk about THICK!

The output of the sun is fairly constant. That is why the warming over the last 130 years is not due to the sun but to H2O and CO2.

If the output of the sun was to drop, like in a GSM, so that TSI was to drop then temperatures here would drop a bit. A GSM is not permanent, of course.

The cooling a GSM would bring is about 0.3°C, about a quarter of the warming we have seen since 1880. AGW would still be active so it would not stay 0.3°C cooler.

Anybody but a total fool understands that.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #446 - Apr 26th, 2018 at 11:32am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26th, 2018 at 4:34am:
By burning fossil fuels we have put 46% more CO2 in the atmosphere than there was in the 1800s



Seeing as Man's emissions are about 3% of total emissions, you are wrong again. The main contributor are the oceans.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #447 - Apr 26th, 2018 at 11:35am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26th, 2018 at 10:19am:
doesn’t get what Barnacle is saying, talk about THICK!

That is why the warming over the last 130 years is not due to the sun but to H2O and CO2.



Are you calling Barney thick? He says water has no impact.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #448 - Apr 26th, 2018 at 12:00pm
 
Another partial quote of one of my posts, Lees?

Shall I or Aussie report you to FD? You have been advised twice about this in the last few days.

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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #449 - Apr 26th, 2018 at 1:00pm
 
Wow, a really nice simulation of sea surface temperatures (SSTs:)

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/04/stronger-evidence-for-a-we...
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