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« Created by: Aussie on: Apr 1st, 2018 at 7:33pm »

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Relationship to the truth (Read 93954 times)
lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #345 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 2:10pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 1:34pm:
Seems that the AMOC is weakening.



"Modelling studies suggest that AMOC weakening"

"We exploit here the model-based covariance of decadal changes"

"The model results in Fig.1 suggest "

Models; all the way down.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #346 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 3:41pm
 
Booby, in the “Dubyne is a snake oil seller” thread asks plaintively:

“What about Galactic Cosmic Rays?”

He knows that CRs cause nucleation but nucleii that are WAY too small to have water vapor condense on them. I have told him, commenters on the snake oil seller YT channel have told him. He doesn’t have knowledge or education, he won’t accept facts, just believes the Dubyne snake oil. And he has destroyed the Environment board as I knew he would.
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« Last Edit: Apr 22nd, 2018 at 5:07pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #347 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 10:04pm
 
And Booby lazily falls back on to his fallback position, one that requires no argument, debate or facts “320 pages of evidence.”

Most of this “evidence” is not evidence of anything at all, except that in location X at date Y it was a bit cool at X. No global picture, no science etc etc is needed as long as you accept Dubyne the snake oil salesman is all wise in all things etc.

Pure snake oil!
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #348 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 10:13pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 10:04pm:
And Booby lazily falls back on to his fallback position, one that requires no argument, debate or facts “320 pages of evidence.”http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl

Most of this “evidence” is not evidence of anything at all, except that in location X at date Y it was a bit cool at X. No global picture, no science etc etc is needed as long as you accept Dubyne the snake oil salesman is all wise in all things etc.

Pure snake oil!


Exactly.  I had earlier referred to DuByne's stuff as 'Dear Diary, today it was cold in New York. Ice Age coming.'
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #349 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 6:12am
 
That is pretty much what it amounts to. A lot of the videos are padding, too.

We had blue aurora one time—sure sign of an ice age  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

He talks about a 3 day event for a month trying to make it look worse than it was.

A lot of the record cold are not particularly record. He said a couple of years ago that -54° (can’t remember if F or C) in Greenland was a record. I don’t take his word for anything so I checked. Coldest temp was in the 40s and was like -88°. The cold in Britain this winter broke a 5 year record, far from the worst Britain has suffered.

A lot of the records are for the amount of snowfall. Taking Dubyne as gospel—always a dangerous thing to do—the record amounts of snowfall point to record amounts of evaporation. This obviously took place in warm seas evaporating into warm air. Air nowadays can hold 8% more moisture than it could in the late 1800s. The warm, moist air moves over land, cools down and precipitates what is now excess moisture. IF we were moving to an ice age seas and air would be colder so there would be less evaporation and less precipitation.

Hail features large in the Dubyne nonsense, a sign of cooling, of course  Roll Eyes Nonsense: hail is formed high up in the atmosphere in powerful thunderstorms with lots of convection happening. The day my Dad died in late January we had a big hailstorm—middle of summer, warm day, we got hail, golf ball sized hail. Nothing indicating cooling about that.

Yes, some cold records do get set—more extreme weather, Arctic air getting pushed out the Arctic by warm air etc—but many more heat records do. Page 5 of the BuMet State of the Climate 2016 report shows how both temperature minima and maxima had shifted to the warm side—but still had a “tail” stretching to the cool side. We do get more cold Antarctic air etc reaching us now.

So, Booby, your “323 pages of evidence can’t be ignored” is hogwash. Actual cold records are few and there are many more record heat events.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #350 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:26am
 
Now the dupe accuses me of being a liar, that cosmic rays do cause clouds. He cites as authority a YouTube (of course) quoting something about CERN. A YouTube by that fraud Svensmark.

I call Svensmark a fraud because he does not follow the scientific method: he tortures data (excluding data that doesn’t fit  Roll Eyes Smiley until he gets some correlation or other then says “Proved!” Fraud.

Whatever. When this crap about GCRs affecting our weather came up in a snake oil seller video I did some searching in Google. GCR–caused nuclei are too small to have water vapor condense on them. Maybe in some tightly controlled conditions they might but not in real life. Not only that, someone explained this at length in a comment to one of the snake oil videos.

What is causing more clouds is that there is more moisture in the air due to AGW.

There is no global cooling that can be seen, e.g in this GISS graph:

...

We see temperatures have cooled a tad as expected after the big El Nino in 2016. There is NOTHING there to indicate global cooling leading to an ice age—we see bigger fluctuations in the graph. Peaks due to El Ninos and dips due volcanic eruptions and La Nina’s. Remember too when looking at the graph that TSI reduced a tad since the 1980s yet the globe warmed and will continue warming due to AGW.

Look at the temperature anomaly for 1880—about -0.2°C then look at the temperature for 2016— close to 1°C so that is 1.2°C WARMING since 1880.

Yes I know all these figures are rigged  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Nah I think they are pretty good.

It is hypothesised that one of the triggers for an El Nino was fifty years of very heavy volcanic eruptions sending tons of sulphates into the upper atmosphere where they reflected away a lot of sunlight. This would have been in the late thirteenth–early fourteenth centuries.

The LIA had temperatures about 0.5°C cooler than temperatures in the early 1900s—it wasn’t a real ice age at all. We have warmed like 1.0°C since then, so similar cooling now would not be all that bad, would it?

The world will keep warming while we keep pumping CO2, CH4 and N2O into the air.
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« Last Edit: Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:34am by Jovial Monk »  

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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #351 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:40am
 
Something real to be concerned about is the slowing of the Gulf Stream—the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to give it its full title. There is evidence that it is slowing down, the North Atlantic where the Gulf Stream flows being 9°C hotter than nprmal being one pointer and studies pointing to it slowing as well—I have cited a couple of them above and maybe even in the Dubyne MRB.

Only slightly slowing as yet—should be a warning sign but politics won’t acknowledge it, of course.

The reason it is slowing is the fresh water flowing into the Atlantic from melting Arctic Sea ice and the 280Gtons of fresh water from the melting Greenland ice sheet. Fresh water is lighter than saline water so it won’t sink even if colder than the saline water—no “overturning.”

Similar is happening off the rapidly melting Antarctic: the fresh water from the icesheet won’t sink down and so doesn’t mix and bring up the nutrient laden deep cold currents—a nice vicious little positive feedback loop, eh Booby? The warmer meltwater hangs around and helps to melt more ice.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #352 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:07am
 
Having shown all this—come on, it is way beyond time that Booby was removed as Mod of the Dubyne MRB and someone, Barnacle maybe, NOT me, be appointed Mod and the board become the Environment board again.

Do we need TWO Fringe boards, FD?
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #353 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:11am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:26am:
There is no global cooling that can be seen, e.g in this GISS graph:




Yeah. I read the Title of the graph. You must have missed it.

"Global Mean ESTIMATES based on Land and Ocean Data"

So what size are the error bars in these ESTIMATES? Wink
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #354 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:18am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:26am:
I call Svensmark a fraud because he does not follow the scientific method: he tortures data (excluding data that doesn’t fit  Roll Eyes Smiley until he gets some correlation or other then says “Proved!” Fraud.



Now  am not a climate scientist; but from what you have posted neither are you.

So what amount of predictions by "limate scientists" have been shown to be not true?

End of Snow? - Nope
Increases in Extreme weather? - Nope. Landed Hurricanes in the USA - decreasing.

Need I go on?
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #355 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:19am
 
Lees remembering he used to “wave” the cover of “Statistics for Dummies” around”  Wink

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/docs/smith-reynolds-2005.pdf

Page 9 might be of interest.

Hehehehe Lees about had a heart attack when I showed how a test for warming could be conducted using ChiSquare  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin “Statistics for Dummies” has not appeared since  Smiley

Now he will say “That is proof of warming, not manmade warming” and I will refer him to the Feldman and Harries papers.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #356 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 12:43pm
 
lee wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:18am:
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:26am:
I call Svensmark a fraud because he does not follow the scientific method: he tortures data (excluding data that doesn’t fit  Roll Eyes Smiley until he gets some correlation or other then says “Proved!” Fraud.



Now  am not a climate scientist; but from what you have posted neither are you.

So what amount of predictions by "limate scientists" have been shown to be not true?

End of Snow? - Nope
Increases in Extreme weather? - Nope. Landed Hurricanes in the USA - decreasing.

Need I go on?


Got the names of climate scientists making those predictions? Thought not. Al Gore is not a scientist if you were going to name him.

Anybody making predictions will come a cropper sometimes, in science, on the stock exchange, betting on a race, businesses making business plans or a request for a bank loan, a scientist formulating a theory etc.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #357 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 3:24pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 12:43pm:
Got the names of climate scientists making those predictions? Thought not.



End of Snow - Dr David Viner senior research scientist, Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia.

Increases in Extreme Weather - Will Steffen, Australian Climate Council, Michael E Mann, Penn State University.

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 12:43pm:
Al Gore is not a scientist if you were going to name him.



Thank you for the heads up. I thought he was just a person who jumped on the gravy train.

But I can see that you Thought - Not.Grin Grin Grin Grin

Too bad you don't actually research things.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #358 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 3:32pm
 
Wow, three scientists.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #359 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 4:37pm
 
Snow had become more rare in southern England when I arrived there in Dec 1978—as my uncle advised. A sled he had bought for his youngest son remained in the shed—not enough snow.

So like Richard Flannery I suspect this is a quote taken wildly out of context. The original article containing the quote is no longer online.

We had the beast from the east, we had 52" of rain in one week in Houston last year etc and Lees says there is no extreme weather? Arctic melting in the middle of winter not extreme? Plenty of powerful hurricanes hit the Caribbean and Florida last year. Plenty of extreme weather.
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« Last Edit: Apr 23rd, 2018 at 4:46pm by Jovial Monk »  

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