Australian Politics Forum - 2017 is second hottest year

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: 2017 is second hottest year Reply #15 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 3:02pm Sea levels keep rising: This is a repeat—have posted the video before—but its importance justifies a repeat post.
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Dnarever

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #16 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 3:11pm

lee wrote on Jan 19^th, 2018 at 9:25pm:

JM, So having changed your data set to one that agrees with your view, all you have to do now is show the figure that is above 1997 62.45ºF.

"Taking this into account, NASA estimates that 2017’s global mean change is accurate to within 0.1 degree Fahrenheit, with a 95 percent certainty level."

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2671/long-term-warming-trend-continued-in-2017-nas...

Grin

That's +/- 0.05ºF

NOAA says that their global estimates for land are +/-0.27ºF.

Their uncertainties for the NH are +/-0.31ºF for the land. For the SH their uncertainties are +/-0.22ºF.

Yet when combined the global uncertainties for the land are +/-0.27ºF. You reckon you are the stats master; how can the uncertainty be narrower than the widest uncertainty?

Their global temp is estimated at 58.51ºF.

Grin

do now is show the figure that is above 1997

The report you normally use to show this explains that it was measured differently and is not a valid comparison. That year rates about 15 or more now. The hottest year is 2016. Second 2017 third 2015 fourth 2014.

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lee

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #17 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:05pm

Dnarever wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 3:11pm:

The report you normally use to show this explains that it was measured differently and is not a valid comparison. That year rates about 15 or more now. The hottest year is 2016. Second 2017 third 2015 fourth 2014

Nope. The 1997 figures say at the bottom they have changed the baseline temperature. As has been explained, many times before, changing the baseline only changes the anomaly, it doesn't change the absolute temperature.

If the baseline increases from 14.9C to 15.0C, all those anomalies are adjusted by that 0.1C.

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miketrees Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6492 Gender:	Re: 2017 is second hottest year Reply #18 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:08pm So if 2016 was the hottest and 2017 was the second hottest,,, we are heading in the right direction trend wise
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Dnarever

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #19 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:10pm

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:05pm:

Dnarever wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 3:11pm:

The report you normally use to show this explains that it was measured differently and is not a valid comparison. That year rates about 15 or more now. The hottest year is 2016. Second 2017 third 2015 fourth 2014

Nope. The 1997 figures say at the bottom they have changed the baseline temperature. As has been explained, many times before, changing the baseline only changes the anomaly, it doesn't change the absolute temperature.

If the baseline increases from 14.9C to 15.0C, all those anomalies are adjusted by that 0.1C.

There is an updated version for that year that calculates the same way as the others. It comes in at around 15th when compared apples to apples...

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Johnnie Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 12485 Gender:	Re: 2017 is second hottest year Reply #20 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:21pm A lot of figures being bandied about, try going outside during summer over the last decade and see for yourselves, melt down is possible.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #21 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:36pm

miketrees wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:08pm:

So if 2016 was the hottest and 2017 was the second hottest,,, we are heading in the right direction trend wise

Not really, mike. 2018 should be cooler than 2017—a weak La Nina is developing in the Pacific. OTOH, 2019 might be an El Nino year boosting heat again. Global temperatures go up but with dips for volcanic eruptions and La Nina years and jumps for El Nino years.

But as emissions increase temperatures increase and emissions continue to go up.

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miketrees Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6492 Gender:	Re: 2017 is second hottest year Reply #22 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:39pm Its OK JV I was being flippant, its all I can do in the face of the facts. Its how we cope sometimes
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21603 Gender:	Re: 2017 is second hottest year Reply #23 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:45pm Dnarever wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:10pm: There is an updated version for that year that calculates the same way as the others. It comes in at around 15th when compared apples to apples... And of course you forgot the link?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21603 Gender:	Re: 2017 is second hottest year Reply #24 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:46pm Johnnie wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:21pm: A lot of figures being bandied about, try going outside during summer over the last decade and see for yourselves, melt down is possible. How much warming over the last decade? 0.2C?
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Jovial Monk

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #25 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:49pm

Yup, gallows humor.

Some think we will get an ice age because of a Global Solar Minimum. A GSM would reduce temperatures by 0.3°C. GSMs do not create ice ages but they can deepen them a bit. A 0.3°C reduction now, if the solar minimum next year is a GSM, a slight windback of AGW is to be welcomed except idiot politicians will say “See, AGW not a problem!”

Problem is, in 2020–2030 the sun will probably increase its activity, TSI here will increase and temperatures jump.

I will turn 71 this year, look forward to moving to my Tassie block and spend 30 years growing old disreputably! I will be cosily dead and buried by the time the worst things will happen—but, damn it, I want to stop the worst from happening!

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Rider

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #26 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 6:39pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:49pm:

Yup, gallows humor.

Some think we will get an ice age because of a Global Solar Minimum. A GSM would reduce temperatures by 0.3°C. GSMs do not create ice ages but they can deepen them a bit. A 0.3°C reduction now, if the solar minimum next year is a GSM, a slight windback of AGW is to be welcomed except idiot politicians will say “See, AGW not a problem!”

Problem is, in 2020–2030 the sun will probably increase its activity, TSI here will increase and temperatures jump.

I will turn 71 this year, look forward to moving to my Tassie block and spend 30 years growing old disreputably! I will be cosily dead and buried by the time the worst things will happen—but, damn it, I want to stop the worst from happening!

It will be more fullfilling and personally rewarding if you spend your time growing some nice home grown veges and sharing them with your neighbors, they'll appreciate it a lot more than banging on and on and on about this global warming nonsence.

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lee

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #27 - Jan 21^st, 2018 at 9:51pm

Dnarever wrote on Jan 21^st, 2018 at 5:10pm:

There is an updated version for that year that calculates the same way as the others. It comes in at around 15th when compared apples to apples...

The only thing I can find is an article in the Garudian.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/feb/0...

The claims to show NOAA's adjustments. I have no proof either way.

But you would think that an adjustment of at least 3ºF (1.66ºC) would be immediately apparent.

There is an adjustment but nowhere near that level.

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UnSubRocky

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #28 - Jan 24^th, 2018 at 3:25am

Johnnie wrote on Jan 19^th, 2018 at 10:27am:

Air conditioners are the best invention known to mankind, the way things are going much bigger and much better ones will be needed.

Having grown up in an era where shade and a breeze was the only way to keep cool, I have to wonder what kind of ice planet you grew up on before you moved to Earth? And did you have to ride around on tauntauns and avoid ice creatures as you traveled from cave to cave? Before we had an airconditioner installed, we would tough out heat wave with nothing more than cold showers and keeping hydrated.

Needing to use an airconditioner so much that you think you will need an even bigger airconditioner under some misinformed idea that the world is getting hotter, that kind of leaves me wondering how pampered you were as a child. Don't get me wrong. If you really were brought up in a upper-middle class family where access to airconditioning was the norm, then good onya. But thinking that you live on Tattooine because the media tells you make-believe stories about heat waves being more and more frequent, I think you need to use your airconditioner less and just acclimatise better to the change in season. Maybe you are one of those city slickers in one of the temperate regions of Australia, and can't handle anything over 30 degree C in summer, and shiver so much in winter that spring and summer are just too difficult to handle.

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UnSubRocky

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Re: 2017 is second hottest year
Reply #29 - Jan 24^th, 2018 at 3:29am

windytv.com is forecasting a cyclone to brew up just off the coast of Western Australia and then turn into a broad tropical low as it moves straight through the centre of the country. Could bring about some relief around here (CQ) with some much-needed rain. But I think we could be in for some hot weather in the lead up to getting whatever is left of the rain.

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