Australian Politics Forum - Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?

Jovial Monk

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Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?
Aug 25^th, 2017 at 2:19pm

The chances of warming accelerating sharply are good.

Deniers frequently crap on with “The Medieval Warm Period” was warmer! Maybe, tho not likely. But say the MWP was global (far from sure) and due to some cause.

Now, AGW (and it is anthropogenic, see the AGW science threads) has raised temperatures by 1.2°C since 1850. Let us say non–anthropogenic forcings caused the MWP.

So, fairly suddenly the globe has warmed by 2.2°C.

1.2°C was enough to start the major ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctic destabilising and sliding into the sea. Add another 1°C warming and those sheets will disappear quickly, creating a rise in sea levels of 9 metres. Umm.

Now, what could force more rapid temperature increases?

The sun will enter a more active state sooner or later, probably by 2040 it will be adding warmth to AGW.

The increase in albedo as more land and sea ice melts. The melting is happening now and the albedo change is why warming is happening 3x faster at the poles than in the rest of the planet.

Cessation of significant vulcanism for a period of decades meaning a decrease in the aerosols in the upper atmosphere.

Orbital change seeing the NH get more sunshine.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #1 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 2:20pm .
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #2 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:47pm Alarmist....
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #3 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:50pm Asking a question is being alarmist? Only in what passes for a brain with roach. roach by name, roach by intellect I guess. Because the sun will return to a more active state and will do that within a decade or two.
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #4 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:52pm You are an alarmist, no use trying to deny it. Grendel wrote on Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:47pm: Alarmist....
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Neferti Gold Member Offline Posts: 7965 Canberra Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #5 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:53pm
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #6 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:56pm Yep nailed him there Nef.
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lee

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Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?
Reply #7 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 6:11pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:50pm:

Asking a question is being alarmist?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 25^th, 2017 at 2:19pm:

The chances of warming accelerating sharply are good.

Deniers frequently crap on with “The Medieval Warm Period” was warmer! Maybe, tho not likely. But say the MWP was global (far from sure) and due to some cause.

Now, AGW (and it is anthropogenic, see the AGW science threads) has raised temperatures by 1.2°C since 1850. Let us say non–anthropogenic forcings caused the MWP.

So, fairly suddenly the globe has warmed by 2.2°C.

They are statements not questions. Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #8 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 6:30pm chances of warming—not too imperious tho not likely—ditto Let us say—ditto But why not actually discuss the possibility a forcing apart from AGW starts happening? The sun becoming more active will happen sooner or later you know.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?
Reply #9 - Aug 25^th, 2017 at 8:32pm

Considering the (possible) appearance of another climate forcing is interesting.

I predict that within 5 years geo-engineering in the form of aerosols pumped into the upper atmosphere where the aerosols reflect some sunlight away from the planet, cooling it, will be done by many major nations. This will come after major floods on the east coast of the US, Bangladesh and, maybe, Holland.

So they do this—and the sun brightens, undoing the effect of the aerosols! {Oops!}

Then the aerosols, sulphuric acid, comes back to the surface as acid rain! {Double Oops!}

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« Last Edit: Aug 25^th, 2017 at 9:16pm by Jovial Monk »

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Fuzzball Gold Member Offline Posts: 6384 Australia Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #10 - Aug 26^th, 2017 at 11:10am http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/845901/climate-change-natural-global-warmi... At last the truth is out...........scientists agree, so called Global Warming is totally natural..... Climate Change = Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter..........
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Ajax

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Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?
Reply #11 - Aug 26^th, 2017 at 11:29am

Fuzzball wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 11:10am:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/845901/climate-change-natural-global-warmi...

At last the truth is out...........scientists agree, so called Global Warming is totally natural.....

Climate Change = Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter..........

That is also why the current increase in atmospheric CO2 reflects the natural emissions of CO2 from natural sinks due to the current warming rather than mans emissions of CO2 which are so small they hardly register.

Quote:

Compared to natural CO2 emissions mans emissions of CO2 are just too small to register.

Notice the sharp rise in fossil fuel CO2 emissions after 2000.

After 2000 fossil fuel emissions were 3 times the amount of fossil fuel emissions in the prior decade to 2000, that is 3 times as much fossil fuel emission went into our atmosphere after 2000 than the decade before 2000.

But the average yearly increase after 2000 just like the decade prior to 2000, average increase in CO2 remains more or less steady at 2.1ppm per year.

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions at 2.3% of the total CO2 natural emissions are insignificant and get lost in the noise.

That's why the average yearly increase of CO2 has remained steady at 2.1ppm per year even though fossil fuel emissions have shot through the roof.

Yes fossil fuels emissions contribute but the contribution is small at 2.3% of the total amount of natural CO2 that is emitted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGZqWMEpyUM

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #12 - Aug 26^th, 2017 at 1:02pm Man has boosted atmospheric CO2 by 46% since 1850 Ajax. Instead of 280ppm it is now 410ppm. Volcanoes add hardly any CO2—they cool the planet by spewing aerosols into the upper atmosphere.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21533 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #13 - Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:20pm Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 1:02pm: Man has boosted atmospheric CO2 by 46% since 1850 Ajax. And you posted temperatures went up linearly, The effect of CO2 is logarithmic. Time for a new analysis.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? Reply #14 - Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:27pm Glad you admit the greenhouse effect of CO2, Lees. But the subject of this thread is: will new forcings appear that add to the warming from AGW?
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