Australian Politics Forum - Sea level rise on the east coast of the US

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Sea level rise on the east coast of the US
Jul 26^th, 2017 at 9:59am

The east coast of the US is the first large area that will be hit by large sea level rise:

Quote:

Thermal expansion of the ocean in response to warming is an important component of historical sea-level rise1. Observational studies show that the Atlantic and Southern oceans are warming faster than the Pacific Ocean. Here we present simulations using a numerical atmospheric-ocean general circulation model with an interactive carbon cycle to evaluate the impact of carbon emission rates, ranging from 2 to 25 GtC yr−1, on basin-scale ocean heat uptake and sea level. For simulations with emission rates greater than 5 GtC yr−1, sea-level rise is larger in the Atlantic than PacificOcean on centennial timescales. This basin-scale asymmetry is related to the shorter flushing timescales and weakeningof the overturning circulation in the Atlantic. These factors lead to warmer Atlantic interior waters and greater thermal expansion. In contrast, low emission rates of 2 and 3 GtC yr−1will cause relatively larger sea-level rise in the Pacific on millennial timescales. For a given level of cumulative emissions,sea-level rise is largest at low emission rates. We conclude that Atlantic coastal areas may be particularly vulnerable to near-future sea-level rise from present-day high greenhouse gas emission rates.

The study can be accessed by clicking on the link here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/01/why-the-u-s...

The Post article continues:
Quote:

The research adds to recent studies that have found strong warming of ocean waters in the U.S. Gulf of Maine, a phenomenon that is not only upending fisheries but could be worsening the risk of extreme weather in storms like Winter Storm Jonas. .
. .

“When carbon emission rates are at present day levels and higher, we see greater basin average sea level rise in the Atlantic relative to the Pacific,” says Krasting. “This also means that single global average measures of sea level rise become less representative of the regional scale changes that we show in the study.”

Back to top

« Last Edit: Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:08am by Jovial Monk »

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged

Grendel

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male

Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US
Reply #1 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:07am

Gee larsen must have melted already?
No.... that's not right it was always in the water.
Greenland must be Green again?

Honestly this seal level crap is waaaaay OTT, do you think the Earth's Oceans and Seas work like a bathtub? Put more water in and the level goes up uniformly all over the planet.

Like Climate Monkeyboy, Sea levels are affected by a great many things. Oh and BTW the worlds leading expert as I've pointed out already has stated Sea levels have not been affected by climate change.

With you the problem is like Weather and Climate... you don't know the difference.

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #2 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:10am You forgot about thermal expansion of seawater as the planet heats. But more water is being added to the oceans from Greenland and Antarctica.
Back to top	OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now! Topics in the right MRB! IP Logged

Grendel

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male

Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US
Reply #3 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:14am

Please don't tell me the claim was made by that fraud James Hansen.... Cheesy

Meanwhile some truth...

Sea Level Expert Rips Study Claiming Fastest Rise in 2800 years: Study ‘full of very bad violations of observational facts’

Dr. Nils-Axel Morner who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University:

'The PNAS paper is another sad contribution to the demagogic anti-science campaign for AGW. It is at odds with observational facts and ethical principles." - "The paper is full of very bad violations of observational facts.'

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry of Georgia Institute of Technology

: 'Sea level will continue to rise, no matter what we do about CO2 emissions.' - 'The IPCC figure 3.14 suggests that there is no acceleration, given the large rates of sea level rise in the first half of the 20th century. Until we have an understanding of variations in decadal and multi-decadal sea level rise, we can’t make a convincing argument as to acceleration.'

Meteorologist Tom Wysmuller:

'For the past 130 years there has been ZERO acceleration in sea-level rise as directly measured by tide gauges in tectonically inert areas (land neither moving up nor down), even as CO2 has risen almost 40% in the same period.'

Quote:

Morner noted:

– global tide gauges show moderate mean rates
– many key sites and test sites show little or no rise at all
– nowhere do we find records of true “acceleration”
– satellite altimetry show a mean rise of 0.5 ±0.1 mm/yr after back-callibration
– past sea level oscillations have been faster & steeper that in the last century

Back to top

IP Logged

Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #4 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:18am Monk..... Give it a rest will you.
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male

Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US
Reply #5 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:19am

Sea level rise (SLR) on the east coast of the US has been measured:

Quote:

Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated NorthAmerican Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ∼3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches andwetlands to deterioration.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1597.html

Will post more info later.

A note on storm surges. Ignoramuses will say “Oh, a 10cm sea level rise is nothing to worry about” right, roach?

But then we get a storm surge at peak tides and that extra 10cm of sea level rise means more sea defences are breached and floods reach much further inland.

Just like a bit more warming is going to cause failures of the three main food grain crops, wheat, maize and rice.

Back to top

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!

IP Logged

Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #6 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:23am LOL Idiot... we've had larger rises during surges here , that's why they are called surges.
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #7 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:40am As sea level rises the surges start higher, flood in more places, flood further inland. Thought even you could see that but I obviously flattered your mental acuity too much.
Back to top	OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now! Topics in the right MRB! IP Logged

Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #8 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 1:04pm Grendel wrote on Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:23am: LOL Idiot... we've had larger rises during surges here , that's why they are called surges. I'm sorry you keep... NOT GETTING IT..... monk... Oh BTW... just as Weather is not Climate... storms are also NOT CLIMATE.
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #9 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 2:27pm As sea levels rise storm surges start from a higher point. More floods and deeper floods. Inevitable consequence of letting AGW go on.
Back to top	OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now! Topics in the right MRB! IP Logged

miketrees Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6492 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #10 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 4:11pm Aye yes and dont forget that as the rotation of the Earth slows down, waters will recede from the Equator and flood the higher latitudes.
Back to top	IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 21533
Gender: male

Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US
Reply #11 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 4:21pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:19am:

Sea level rise (SLR) on the east coast of the US has been measured:

I note you quote a 2013 paper. Here is a later one -

"Subsidence along the Atlantic Coast of North America: Insights from GPS and late Holocene relative sea level data"

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068015/full

Subsidence is NOT sea level rise. Wink

Back to top

IP Logged

Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #12 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 4:23pm LOL Seal levels have been much higher and much lower... oh dear why did we choose to live on such a dynamic planet.
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US Reply #13 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 4:55pm miketrees wrote on Jul 26^th, 2017 at 4:11pm: Aye yes and dont forget that as the rotation of the Earth slows down, waters will recede from the Equator and flood the higher latitudes. I don’t think that is going to happen overnight tho
Back to top	OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now! OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now! Topics in the right MRB! IP Logged

Grendel

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male

Re: Sea level rise on the east coast of the US
Reply #14 - Jul 26^th, 2017 at 5:05pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 26^th, 2017 at 10:19am:

Sea level rise (SLR) on the east coast of the US has been measured:

Quote:

Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated NorthAmerican Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ∼3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches andwetlands to deterioration.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1597.html

Will post more info later.

A note on storm surges. Ignoramuses will say “Oh, a 10cm sea level rise is nothing to worry about” right, roach?

But then we get a storm surge at peak tides and that extra 10cm of sea level rise means more sea defences are breached and floods reach much further inland.

Just like a bit more warming is going to cause failures of the three main food grain crops, wheat, maize and rice.

From your linked article. the bit before the bit YOU posted....

Quote:

Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processe arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth’s rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints

Oh look at that it agrees with everything I said earlier.

Told you you should read what I post. Roll Eyes

But what would I know eh, I'm a what? According to you monk, an "Ignoramus"... gee, what the hell does that make YOU then Grin

Oh and Monk, I'm still looking for that measurement you claimed. Cheesy

could it bet there is no actual measurement in the article as you stated? Cheesy

Back to top

« Last Edit: Jul 26^th, 2017 at 9:07pm by Grendel »

IP Logged