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Action on AGW, is it enough? (Read 9039 times)
Grendel
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #75 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 8:32pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 7:52pm:
I hate to do a Lees, but. . .error bars or uncertainty figures there roach?


Nope its a physical count Monk, the bear is there or it is not.  The count can only be less than the actual figure.

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Frank
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #76 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 8:50pm
 
"Action on AGW"??

Who still falls for that load of old bollocks??


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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #77 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:04pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 8:32pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 7:52pm:
I hate to do a Lees, but. . .error bars or uncertainty figures there roach?


Nope its a physical count Monk, the bear is there or it is not.  The count can only be less than the actual figure.


Obviously never studied statistics and demography.
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Grendel
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #78 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:13pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:04pm:
Grendel wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 8:32pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 7:52pm:
I hate to do a Lees, but. . .error bars or uncertainty figures there roach?


Nope its a physical count Monk, the bear is there or it is not.  The count can only be less than the actual figure.


Obviously never studied statistics and demography.

oh dear....  wrong again Monkeyboy.

But I do know how they count Polar Bears.
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lee
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #79 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:14pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:04pm:
Obviously never studied statistics and demography.



Looking in a mirror again?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #80 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:14pm
 
Ignorance again.
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lee
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #81 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 9:32pm
 
Still going to try to prove the null hypothesis is now AGW? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #82 - Jun 27th, 2017 at 10:59pm
 
Do you know what the null and alternative hypothesis are now?

I did have to educate you before:

1. Since I see evidence of global temperatures increasing all around me my alternative hyposthesis has to be

H1: temperatures are rising. Can’t be anything else.

To test this statistically we need to formulate an alternative hypothesis that we can test:

H0: Temperatures are stable.

When we look at the temperature record, no matter what valid test we apply obviously we have to reject H0. The only choice we have then is that H1 is correct.

So, no, ignoramus, the null hypothesis is not AGW.

You forgot all this so soon?

Want to discuss ChiSquare again too?  Wink

AGW is clearly happening.

We can do something about it: renewable energy. With sound policy settings we can generate reliable clean power at lower prices than we can do with coal. Clean air, no more black lung etc. Why not do it?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #83 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 10:58am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 8:32pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 7:52pm:
I hate to do a Lees, but. . .error bars or uncertainty figures there roach?


Nope its a physical count Monk, the bear is there or it is not.  The count can only be less than the actual figure.


between 20,[000] and 31,000

11,000 range. Not that precise which is what I expected, having some idea of sampling and the fact the bears are sparse in a vast area. Standard deviation not given.

As to the source of the bears migrating to Canada that was given in the original post talking about the census roach mentioned yesterday. Seems they were concentrating in the Baffin Islands or in the pack ice off the Islands.
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lee
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #84 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 12:05pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 10:59pm:
Do you know what the null and alternative hypothesis are now?



Since you are so sure that AGW is now the null hypothesis a simple google search by you for "AGW the new null hypothesis" should show up. After all the alarmists would jump on that in no time.

You can't teach statistics if you can't apply them correctly.

Your alternative hypothesis should be submitted to a peer review magazine on statistics and let them decide how good it is. Wink
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #85 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 1:33pm
 
You will remember this lesson in elementary level stats now?

No, you STILL don’t get it. I will type more s l o w l y

The ALTERNATE hypothesis is: global temperatures are increasing. This has to be so by definition almost: global WARMING

The NULL hypothesis we formulate to test HAS to be:

H0: Global temperatures are stable.

Look at whatever temperature series you like, you have to agree the null hypothesis will fail. This page has a nice gif showing the changing temps over the last century:
https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-10/global-warming-gif-shows-how-hot-earth-ha...

It is clear the null hypothesis has to be discarded and the alternate hypotheses, AGW, accepted.

Do you understand that AGW is NOT the NULL HYPOTHESIS now? You have been hitting the bottle and/or stupid pills pretty hard lately.  Wink
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« Last Edit: Jun 28th, 2017 at 2:17pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Grendel
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #86 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 2:49pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 28th, 2017 at 10:58am:
Grendel wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 8:32pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2017 at 7:52pm:
I hate to do a Lees, but. . .error bars or uncertainty figures there roach?


Nope its a physical count Monk, the bear is there or it is not.  The count can only be less than the actual figure.


between 20,[000] and 31,000

11,000 range. Not that precise which is what I expected, having some idea of sampling and the fact the bears are sparse in a vast area. Standard deviation not given.

As to the source of the bears migrating to Canada that was given in the original post talking about the census roach mentioned yesterday. Seems they were concentrating in the Baffin Islands or in the pack ice off the Islands.

Funny that you accept flawed modelling and approximates and estimates on temperatures or anomalies, but NOT with Polar Bears. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
Oh BTW the count went up from 20,000 to 31,000 its not a range. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #87 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 3:25pm
 
No, doofus, read it again.

the count was 20,000–31,000. Range 11000.
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lee
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #88 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 3:40pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 28th, 2017 at 1:33pm:
The NULL hypothesis we formulate to test HAS to be:

H0: Global temperatures are stable.

Look at whatever temperature series you like, you have to agree the null hypothesis will fail. This page has a nice gif showing the changing temps over the last century:
https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-10/global-warming-gif-shows-how-hot-earth-ha...

It is clear the null hypothesis has to be discarded and the alternate hypotheses, AGW, accepted.


The globe according to the stats is warming spasmodically. What you have failed to do is to even correlate it to CO2, let alone causation. Wink  Don't forget the CO2 part of the story.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Action on AGW, is it enough?
Reply #89 - Jun 28th, 2017 at 3:44pm
 
I just tried to educate you about hypothesis testing.

There is no argument that the globe is warming, none.

No real argument about the cause either: GHGs emitted by us burning fossil fuels.
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