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Ice watch (Read 21359 times)
lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #570 - Aug 19th, 2017 at 10:40pm
 
Yep Greenland sure looks scary.

...

Still above the 1981-2010 Mean. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Emma
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #571 - Aug 19th, 2017 at 11:10pm
 
Please explain the difference between MEAN    AVERAGE   and    MEDIAN.
Preferably using climate stats as examples.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #572 - Aug 19th, 2017 at 11:13pm
 
Could add Mode to that.
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Emma
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #573 - Aug 19th, 2017 at 11:57pm
 
If you wish.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #574 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 12:04am
 
I am sure Lees will have a look in his copy of Statistics for Dummies and answer your questions real soon now Emma.

Mean the arithmetical or geometrical version or both?

Then you could ask him about range, variance and standard deviation and maybe kurtosis too.
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Emma
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #575 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 12:13am
 
well? .. I honestly only expect the basic Stats for Beginners.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #576 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 1:25am
 
The mean is the average of a set of numbers, temperature readings say, add them up, divide by the number of temperatures.

The mean is used to compare samples and populations using statistical tests, difference between means etc.

e.g.

5.4°C
3.5°C
2.4°C
4.7°C

The total is 16°C, divide that by the number of temperatures and the mean or average is 4°C.

Now let us change the 5.4°C to 9.4°C

9.4
3.5
2.4
4.7

Total is 20, divide by 4, average or mean temperature is now 5, so large outliers really move the mean towards the outliers. For this reason to compare two sets of figures the median is used. Let us look at another set of temperatures:


10.2
11.3
9.5
8.7
10.3

All °C of course. What we do first is rearrange the numbers:

8.7
9.5
10.2
10.3
11.3

The median is that value that has half of the set of numbers (a sample) less than the median value and half the set of numbers greater than that value. We see that 10.2 is the median, 2 readings below it and 2 readings above it. You could change the 11.3 for 111.3 and the median would still be 10.2.

Now the mode is the value with the largest number of readings. In our little set of 5 temperatures if we change the 10.3 to 10.2 we get
8.7
9.5
10.2
10.2
11.3

10.2 is obviously the mode.

The mean, median and mode are measures of central tendency, where the centre of the distribution of the values in our samples is. Looking at the series, looks like Greenland summer temperatures  Grin

Next we want to know how tightly the values are distributed around the mean, median or mode.

The range is simply the difference between the smallest and largest value, 11.3 - 8.7 = 2.6. Not the most useful measure  Smiley

Variance, standard deviation is measured by squaring the difference between each value and the mean. Going back to our original sample:

5.4°C
3.5°C
2.4°C
4.7°C

Mean is 4°C so (4-5.4)
2
and we go through to 3.5, 2.4 etc.

Because values are either side of the mean we need to square each individual variance, if we just added up the differences from the mean we end up with zero (where the values are equally distributed around the mean.) Won’t give the formula, won’t have much meaning to you. But variance just tells you how spread out the distribution of your sample is. Standard deviation is used in statistical tests such as difference of means.

Kurtosis—a measure of how peaky the distribution is, and skew is how much of the distribution is at one end of the distribution. Don’t worry about it.

The mean and standard deviation describes the distribution, the set of temperature readings and allows tests to be made.

Hope it helps.
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« Last Edit: Aug 20th, 2017 at 1:40am by Jovial Monk »  

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Re: Ice watch
Reply #577 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 1:52am
 
yep hope it does
thanks JM
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #578 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 2:19am
 
lee wrote on May 11th, 2017 at 6:26pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 11th, 2017 at 5:56pm:
Temperatures averaged up to 14°F above normal in part of the Arctic last month,



At last it wasn't 40ºF above normal. Wink


Climatologists around the globe just changed the scientific models based on that response.

Oh wait. They did not.  Shocked
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #579 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 2:24am
 
Just stupid obfuscation by Lees. He said he is comfortable with CO2 rising etc yet you make a post and well within an hour Lees is there posting rubbish to cover up what you posted. If he really was so comfortable he wouldn’t even read here in Environment.

There are times when he is so rattled that he actually just babbles, sense–free posts. Strange for one so comfortable.
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« Last Edit: Aug 20th, 2017 at 2:36am by Jovial Monk »  

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Re: Ice watch
Reply #580 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 2:48am
 
Truth JM?

None of us should feel so comfortable.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #581 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 9:20am
 
Comfortable applies to sheep.

Apparently he wants me to rebut 300 papers on global cooling. Gee, how can I do that?

...

...

I mean, it really looks like temperatures are cooling, doesn’t it?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Actually, if a time traveller were to travel from 2016 to 1816 he would experience cooling  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Honestly, who makes this chit up? Look at the second graph: you can see how noisy the weather record is but you can also see that between now and 1880 temperatures have clearly increased: that is not a statistical fluke, not an artifact of noise, it is well above any noise in the weather record. Temperatures have increased.

They have increased the fastest in the last 3 decades or so—the time in which the sun has been in a quiescent state!

Look at the months corresponding to winter in the northern hemisphere: winter is warming up more quickly than summers.

What has changed? We have industrialised and have burned and are burning fossil fuels. Look at the carbon isotopes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide: the extra CO2 in the atmosphere, the extra 46% of CO2 was put there by us burning fossil fuels.

And we know the mechanism: GHG molecules absorb photons of IR on a band or bands specific to the dipoles in a GHG molecule, the photon is re-emitted via another dipole—in a random direction, as likely to be re-emitted downwards as upwards. Read: https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/greenhousegases/properties.htm...

We know this happens, IR measured from space decreases with time, IR measured at the surface increases with time as we continue emitting GHGs.

We are now making the world warm enough for methane and nitrous oxide to enter the atmosphere due to the permafrost, the tundra, thawing. GHG with 30 and 200 times the greenhouse power of carbon dioxide. We chit in our own nests all the damn time.
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« Last Edit: Aug 20th, 2017 at 10:12am by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #582 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:07am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 20th, 2017 at 9:20am:
Apparently he wants me to rebut 300 papers on global cooling. Gee, how can I do that?



See. Lying again.

You posted there was no science in the global cooling scare. i pointed you to 285 papers which said there was.

Now that we are in a warming period, you say that is proof there was no global cooling scare.

And you reckon I obfuscate. You take two different time periods and conflate them.

YOU are a fraud.

BTW- I like your pretty graph that assumes they know what the temperature was back to 1880. They didn't even start to try to do that until the 1980's. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

How to lie with statistics 101. Make sh!t up. Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #583 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:11am
 
Lees is babbling again.
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #584 - Aug 20th, 2017 at 11:12am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 19th, 2017 at 11:13pm:
Could add Mode to that.

Hey BSc Geology.... 
You mean MODAL don't you?
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