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Ice watch (Read 21181 times)
lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #510 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:40pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:35pm:
For AGW to be true warming has to be happening.



very good. As far as it goes. For AGW you have to prove the AGW component.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:35pm:
We know the mechanism too.



Do we know all the mechanisms? Wink
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Grendel
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #511 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:48pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:35pm:
For AGW to be true warming has to be happening. There is, no doubt about that. We know the mechanism too.

Glad you were paying attention. Now:

Natural variation—expand on that excuse theory:

Theory–mechanism—implication

H1:

H0:

Test:

Come on Lees, you said it was the obvious, the natural explanation. Or did you not really mean that? Was it just more obfuscation? Surely not?


I'm sorry but that is so full of assumptions and holes and so ignorant of points already made about H0 it aint worth reading.

There is a NULL around here Monk and its between your ears buddy.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #512 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:50pm
 
We know the greenhouse mechanism Lees.

Now, come on, stop avoiding, your theory of natural variation please.
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Grendel
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #513 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 2:51pm
 
LOL


hello....  hello....  is anyone at home? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #514 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 4:15pm
 
Wassup Monk....  got nothing as per usual?

Here old fellow is just one of many arguments that can be made re the climate using the Null Hypothesis.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/03/did-james-hansen-unwittingly-prove-the-nu...
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Grendel
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #515 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 4:19pm
 
Oh and Monk, just what do you consider the Normal State of the Earth is environmentally?

Ice Age or Interglacial? 
Which one lasts the longest Monk?
What are the parameters for natural variation re temperatures and atmospheric composition?
The list goes on and on and on Monk... on and on and on. Grin Grin Grin
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lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #516 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 4:50pm
 
Quote:
The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 - year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We have constructed by reverse Fourier transform a representation of G7 using only these three sine functions, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The three cycles are also found dominant in the production rates of the solar-induced cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be, most strongly in the ~190 - year period being known as the De Vries/Suess cycle. By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.


Quote:
G7, and likewise the sine representations have maxima of comparable size at AD 0, 1000, and 2000. We note that the temperature increase of the late 19th and 20th century is represented by the harmonic temperature representation, and thus is of pure multiperiodic nature. It can be expected that the periodicity of G7, lasting 2000 years so far, will persist also for the foreseeable future. It predicts a temperature drop from present to AD 2050, a slight rise from 2050 to 2130, and a further drop from AD 2130 to 2200 (see Fig. 3), upper panel, green and red curves).


https://benthamopen.com/FULLTEXT/TOASCJ-11-44

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #517 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 5:03pm
 
And so. . . . .?
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lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #518 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 6:08pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 5:03pm:
And so. . . . .?


There are greater things in the Earth's history than piddling 11 year only cycles. Wink
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #519 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 6:11pm
 
You can’t relate that crap you posted to what is happening now.

Noted.
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lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #520 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 6:19pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 6:11pm:
You can’t relate that crap you posted to what is happening now.

Noted.


I suggest you read the paper. Caution not a lot cartoon characters for you. Wink
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #521 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 6:28pm
 
I can think of lots of things to test.

I note you can’t think of one.
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lee
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #522 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 7:01pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 6:28pm:
I can think of lots of things to test.

I note you can’t think of one.


I suggest you get yourself tested,. Your self-medication isn't working.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #523 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 7:28pm
 
You do not have a clue what that article you found means. I am enjoying this  Wink
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Re: Ice watch
Reply #524 - Aug 8th, 2017 at 7:32pm
 
perhaps you'd like to explain this then eh Monk?
No?

Oh dear...

Grendel wrote on Aug 8th, 2017 at 4:15pm:
Wassup Monk....  got nothing as per usual?

Here old fellow is just one of many arguments that can be made re the climate using the Null Hypothesis.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/03/did-james-hansen-unwittingly-prove-the-nu...

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