Actually we live in dangerous days for many other reasons other than melting permafrost as well.

Virus mutations and recombination is a numbers game, the more humans the higher the chance of mutations.

The more humans, the more chance of transfer of viruses from animals to humans.

The degree of increase risk due to permafrost melting would be difficult to quantify, but I am certain it exists.

I doubt we are saying the same thing.

Intensive animal farming is actually much safer than conventional farming when it comes to virus transfers.
You would require some understanding of farming to appreciate that however.

Australia is pretty good with the control of anti biotics, that wont save us as the superbugs can easily be imported from other countries(India) that have virtually no controls in place.

I think we should have a worldwide ban on a few old antibiotics (non patented) then have them available in 15/20 years time,,, we may find without exposure the bacteria will lose their resistance.
Then in 15 years time start rotating the banned antibiotics so we always have some to bring back.

They need to be unpatented ones to avoid legal battles.

Hilarious.

Let me break this down point by point.

Are you aware of how the avian flu and the swine flu broke out? I don;t think you are. You are ethnocentrcially thinking of Australian farming practices and not those of the rest of the world.

But bless you for trying.

But speaking of the western world farming practices, heard of E. coli O157:H7i popping up in bizarre places? You should have.

Among other things.

And "superbugs" are already in our hospitals. Would you like me tell you how many shelved antibiotics we currently have in fear of massive outbreak? I wrote my thesis on this. You're right. I doubt very much we are talking about the same thing.


Its such a pity I am picking up hostility from you, you seem intelligent enough to have a dialog with, however like a lot of life's problems attitude can get in the way.


So

Intensive modern farming, way less animal to human contact, less chance of viral transfer as opposed to small family farms.
Modern farming, quarantine in place, risk assessments undertaken, control measures in place.


Perhaps we were yelling at cross purposes.

Less animal to human contact at what point of the food chain precisely?

Pretty much all the farm side, its highly automated and mechanised on modern feedlots, not much chance of viral exchange.
Risk assessments would also advocate wearing PPE to reduce viral exchange.

I am talking viral, bacterial problems are a different item with different risks and controls.

You don't think viruses recombinate irrespective of who or what is around them?

(Its a numbers game, higher populations, more interaction, more chances of mutations/ recombinations)

How easily do you think a virus would spread amongst immuno-compromised stock?

Not sure where you are getting immuno compromised stock from, but any depression of the immune system is going to be a problem,,, I would include that in my risk assessment

What are he likelihoods of such a virus recombinating to zoonoses? Zero, you think?


Well no as I have pointed out, its a numbers game, more animals, more humans more interactions, the higher the likelihood.
the chance stays the same but the likelihood increases.

Where am i getting immuno-compromised from? I thought you had some understanding of intensive farming? Sorry, my mistake. (Not required, I thought we were being civil)

There is less chance of a suppressed immune system in a modern farm, Good nutrition, good genetics, good vacinations

But in short, we are in agreement. Intensive farming increases the risk of viral recombination therefore increases he risk of zoonosis. No zoonosis also requires the viruses spread to humans, much less chance on modern farms due to risk controls in place.

A numbers game, innit. Well at least you learnt that

Oh gawd, I must have missed the lecture where they painted peace signs on the side of the cows,,, of course they eat better.