Australian Politics Forum - New paper: The hiatus still exists

lee

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New paper: The hiatus still exists
Apr 18^th, 2017 at 2:33pm

"The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses"

"Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified."

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3274.html

Oh, dear. The models are running hot again.

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« Last Edit: Apr 18^th, 2017 at 3:04pm by lee »

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #1 - Apr 18^th, 2017 at 3:29pm Interesting paper.
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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #2 - Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:23pm When is a predator-prey relationship not a predator-prey relationship?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21376 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #3 - Apr 19^th, 2017 at 11:22am TheFunPolice wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:23pm: When is a predator-prey relationship not a predator-prey relationship? When it is an artefact of flawed methodology.
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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #4 - Apr 19^th, 2017 at 5:29pm lee wrote on Apr 19^th, 2017 at 11:22am: TheFunPolice wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:23pm: When is a predator-prey relationship not a predator-prey relationship? When it is an artefact of flawed methodology. You're lost buddy : bye bye Malcolm et al.!!!!
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The_Barnacle

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Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists
Reply #5 - Apr 19^th, 2017 at 10:01pm

Quote:

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated

So it still warmed, it just warmed more slowly.
You can call it a Hiatus if you like but that is really just semantics.

I've never had an issue with a slow down in the warming over 10 - 15 year time spans. After all "climate" has to be considered over time scales of at least 30 years. Anything less than that includes too much background noise.

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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.

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lee

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Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists
Reply #6 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 10:51am

The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 19^th, 2017 at 10:01pm:

Quote:

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated

So it still warmed, it just warmed more slowly.
You can call it a Hiatus if you like but that is really just semantics.

I've never had an issue with a slow down in the warming over 10 - 15 year time spans. After all "climate" has to be considered over time scales of at least 30 years. Anything less than that includes too much background noise.

Even 30 years is not long enough. Maybe 2 climate periods?

And with even more CO2.

But all you have to do is link it to AGW. Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #7 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:13am I doubt there is any halt or slowdown of warming if the Arctic is taken into account. The Arctic is where AGW is happening most rapidly (albedo change.)
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21376 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #8 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:24am Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:13am: I doubt there is any halt or slowdown of warming if the Arctic is taken into account. The Arctic is where AGW is happening most rapidly (albedo change.) Back to your belief systems again.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21376 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #9 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:33am Interesting graph They wouldn't adjust past temperatures would they?
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TheFunPolice

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Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists
Reply #10 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 1:29pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:13am:

I doubt there is any halt or slowdown of warming if the Arctic is taken into account. The Arctic is where AGW is happening most rapidly (albedo change.)

'Albedo change' possibly captures the pig.

There are many reasons why the Southern Hemisphere is colder than the N.H. but the basic idea is that the S.H. is the 'water hemisphere'.

The big ice block called Antartica is not quite twice the size of the usa- just over double the size of Australia... Australia being a bit smaller than the USA.

Greenland is bugger all compared to Antartica and if Greenland is not melting at an 'appreciable' rate then the deniers can get away with anything.

...and they are because Greenland is not melting at what the world perceives as an appreciable rate!

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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #11 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 1:31pm Perception is politics!
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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #12 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 1:32pm lee wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:33am: Interesting graph https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cx3KWzMW8AEiamH.jpg They wouldn't adjust past temperatures would they? sources?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21376 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #13 - Apr 20^th, 2017 at 2:47pm TheFunPolice wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 1:32pm: sources? Can't find it. Don't you just hate that? However there is a version - Found a version here https://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/more-spectacular-arctic-temperature-fraud...
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21376 Gender:	Re: New paper: The hiatus still exists Reply #14 - Apr 29^th, 2017 at 7:54pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 3:29pm: Interesting paper. This paper.
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