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Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry. (Read 1662 times)
lee
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Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Apr 26th, 2017 at 8:53pm
 
"Following on from the ‘interesting’ House Science Committee hearing two weeks ago, there was an excellent rebuttal curated by ClimateFeedback of the unsupported and often-times misleading claims from the majority witnesses. In response, Judy Curry has (yet again) declared herself unconvinced by the evidence for a dominant role for human forcing of recent climate changes. And as before she fails to give any quantitative argument to support her contention that human drivers are not the dominant cause of recent trends. "

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/04/judy-currys-attribution-no...

Gavin then does on to show the models aren't tuned.

...

Gee, those models are running hot. I guess the models aren't tuned. Wink
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« Last Edit: Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:13pm by lee »  
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #1 - Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:19pm
 
Wow, way to go to lose ALL credibility!
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lee
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #2 - Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:26pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:19pm:
Wow, way to go to lose ALL credibility!


Yep. Real Climate sets out to rebut Curry, but in doing so kicks an own goal on how well the models are doing.

Swings and roundabouts.

Interesting to see one of the commenters calling Gavin a scientist. Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #3 - Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:28pm
 
No credibility left  Wink
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lee
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #4 - Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:47pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26th, 2017 at 9:28pm:
No credibility left  Wink


Gavin doesn't realise he has no credibility left.  Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #5 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 6:24am
 
After reading the article I don’t think RC lost ANY credibility.

Maybe you could spell out in detail why you think they did?


Right  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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lee
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #6 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 11:13am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 27th, 2017 at 6:24am:
After reading the article I don’t think RC lost ANY credibility.

Maybe you could spell out in detail why you think they did?



Because it is the models that underpin CAGW. And Gavin, the climate modeller, knows all about climate models. And  most of the climate models, even allowing for the adjusted temperatures, are still running hot,

Even a mean of the climate models will be running hot. They are tuned for the past, but not well. Their forward predictions projections assumptions are increasingly getting away from the observations. They even have to rely on natural events, like El Nino, to spout "see it is the hottest year evah". Of course they want to forget 1997. Wink
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #7 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:22pm
 
So you don’t really have a clue, just as I thought.

Perhaps you can show what your denier website you think and why you think it.
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #8 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:36pm
 
I look at this:
...

And see the observed and the simulations cluster pretty tightly around the mode of the simulations. Mode—value with the highest number of cases in it. The mode is a statistic of central tendency.
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« Last Edit: Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:41pm by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #9 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:56pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:36pm:
And see the observed and the simulations cluster pretty tightly around the mode of the simulations. Mode—value with the highest number of cases in it. The mode is a statistic of central tendency.



And ignore about 42 above the mode to 25 below it. Also ignoring the ignoring satellite and balloon measurements which he didn't want to include. Wink
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #10 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:59pm
 
Yes, slight skew to the hot side but a nice tight pattern.

BTW, looks like we will have another El Nino this summer. Hope your place is well insulated and has good aircon.

Will back to back El Ninos become more common? Considering the amount of heat in the oceans it could be.
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lee
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #11 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 6:29pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 27th, 2017 at 5:59pm:
Yes, slight skew to the hot side but a nice tight pattern.



Yes. only about 26% higher. Ever so slight. Wink
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #12 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 6:34pm
 
Most of it is pretty much around the value of the observations—which themselves have a distribution. A test of difference between means would find that there is no difference, both are the same population.

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« Last Edit: Apr 27th, 2017 at 7:05pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #13 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 6:35pm
 
See the bit about a new El Nino starting up?
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Re: Real Climate rebuts Judith Curry.
Reply #14 - Apr 27th, 2017 at 7:05pm
 
I am guessing you have never dealt much with sampling, probability and so on. If you had done you would have seen what sampling distributions look like.

You really need to calculate the mean and standard deviation of the observed values then see just how many of the simulations fit within mean ± 2 standard deviations. Most do, just eyeballing the histogram.

Really need a much larger sample too.
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