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NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted (Read 6124 times)
lee
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NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:56pm
 
"A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.

The report claimed that the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in global warming in the period since 1998 – revealed by UN scientists in 2013 – never existed, and that world temperatures had been rising faster than scientists expected. Launched by NOAA with a public relations fanfare, it was splashed across the world’s media, and cited repeatedly by politicians and policy makers.

But the whistleblower, Dr John Bates, a top NOAA scientist with an impeccable reputation, has shown The Mail on Sunday irrefutable evidence that the paper was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data.

It was never subjected to NOAA’s rigorous internal evaluation process – which Dr Bates devised.

His vehement objections to the publication of the faulty data were overridden by his NOAA superiors in what he describes as a ‘blatant attempt to intensify the impact’ of what became known as the Pausebuster paper."

"NOAA’s 2015 ‘Pausebuster’ paper was based on two new temperature sets of data – one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas.

Both datasets were flawed. This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.

The paper relied on a preliminary, ‘alpha’ version of the data which was never approved or verified.

A final, approved version has still not been issued."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manip...
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #1 - Feb 10th, 2017 at 4:28pm
 
What a disgrace. It's mind boggling just how many swamps need to be drained.

Sack the lot.
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Ajax
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #2 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 9:27am
 
The oligarchy want to create a $7 trillion dollar per annum market to play their game, by taxing all people on the Earth the free air they breathe.

Soon we'll have a methane meter attached to our arses so they can tax our farts as well.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #3 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 10:18am
 
Thanks Lee,
it's amazing how so many gullible people like Jovial have been conned.
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The_Barnacle
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #4 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 10:48am
 
Yes I always rely on "science" published in the Daily Mail

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

http://www.snopes.com/2017/02/08/noaa-scientists-climate-change-data/

http://www.factcheck.org/2017/02/no-data-manipulation-at-noaa/

http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/more-fake-news-in-the-mail-on-sunday...

An attack by the ‘The Mail on Sunday’ on the accuracy and integrity of a recent paper on global warming is based on inaccurate and misleading claims, including a fake graph.

The article by David Rose appears in the 5 February issue of the newspaper under the headline ‘Exposed: How world leaders were duped over global warming’. The article was first published on the newspaper’s website on 4 February.

The claim that global warming stopped in 1998 became a key talking point for ‘sceptics’ in 2006 after ‘The Sunday Telegraph’ published an article by the late Dr Bob Carter, a geologist based in New Zealand.

Although global temperature records compiled by the UK Met Office (TXT), NOAA (CSV) and NASA (TXT) show that 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998, many climate change ‘sceptics’ have continued to falsely assert that there has been no real warming over the past 18 years.
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #5 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 11:52am
 
Breitbart is another favorite source of Lee. Anything but real science, basically. I have decided to just ignore him.
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lee
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #6 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 12:31pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 11:52am:
Breitbart is another favorite source of Lee. Anything but real science, basically. I have decided to just ignore him.



Only because you can't explain how "Bates is wrong"
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lee
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #7 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 1:00pm
 
You l\know Snopes is not the best source, don't you?

But from it -

"they had used a ‘highly experimental early run’ of a programme that tried to combine two previously separate sets of records ....."

End of quote in Snopes

lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:56pm:
This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.



Nothing to worry about at all. Wink

NOAA’s USHCN stations are used to create the US portion of GHCN.

...

Nothing to worry about with the land based dataset. Of course you can feel free to check the data yourself.

Zeke Hausfather (2017) "the hiatus disproven again"

"The 2015 analysis showed that the modern buoys now used to measure ocean temperatures tend to report slightly cooler temperatures than older ship-based systems, even when measuring the same part of the ocean at the same time. As buoy measurements have replaced ship measurements, this had hidden some of the real-world warming.

After correcting for this “cold bias,” researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded in the journal Science that the oceans have actually warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as earlier estimates of 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade. "


"But the buoys report slightly cooler temperatures because they measure water directly from the ocean instead of after a trip through a warm engine room."


http://news.berkeley.edu/2017/01/04/global-warming-hiatus-disproved-again/

So they admit that the ship's readings impart a warming bias.

We'll ignore the warming bias and correct for a "cooling bias" in the buoys.

Sounds more like they don't want to junk the ships' temperatures. But is it the way science should be done?
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« Last Edit: Feb 11th, 2017 at 1:08pm by lee »  
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #8 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 6:32pm
 
What happened to John Taverner? He actually knew stuff!
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lee
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #9 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 6:41pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 6:32pm:
What happened to John Taverner? He actually knew stuff!


Yeah, He actually backed the Karl et al paper.

Edit: The Karl et al paper had a significance of 0.1.  A good significance is 0.01 to 0.05. So the Karl et al paper was crap.
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« Last Edit: Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:01pm by lee »  
 
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #10 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:26pm
 
Quote:
NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted


The story comes from a climate denier organisation, it smells like fake news it looks like fake news and many of the statements made are known to be incorrect.

Fake News story.
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lee
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #11 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:35pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:26pm:
Quote:
NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted


The story comes from a climate denier organisation, it smells like fake news it looks like fake news and many of the statements made are known to be incorrect.

Fake News story.



So we'll ignore the good Doctor, now ex-NOAA, and focus on the medium not the message. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Please define the "many statements known to be incorrect"

They have not refuted the use of the unverified and unstable models, which are central to the argument.

The models haven't been QA/QC cleared, indeed they haven't claimed that; merely skirted the issue. So it not merely an administrative thing, as they they are trying to claim.

Would you fly in a plane built based on a model that hadn't passed QA/QC?

Conspiracy theorist much. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #12 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:57pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 1:00pm:
You l\know Snopes is not the best source, don't you?

But from it -

"they had used a ‘highly experimental early run’ of a programme that tried to combine two previously separate sets of records ....."

End of quote in Snopes

lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:56pm:
This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.



Nothing to worry about at all. Wink

NOAA’s USHCN stations are used to create the US portion of GHCN.

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/clip_image002_thumb.png

Nothing to worry about with the land based dataset. Of course you can feel free to check the data yourself.

Zeke Hausfather (2017) "the hiatus disproven again"

"The 2015 analysis showed that the modern buoys now used to measure ocean temperatures tend to report slightly cooler temperatures than older ship-based systems, even when measuring the same part of the ocean at the same time. As buoy measurements have replaced ship measurements, this had hidden some of the real-world warming.

After correcting for this “cold bias,” researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded in the journal Science that the oceans have actually warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as earlier estimates of 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade. "


"But the buoys report slightly cooler temperatures because they measure water directly from the ocean instead of after a trip through a warm engine room."


http://news.berkeley.edu/2017/01/04/global-warming-hiatus-disproved-again/

So they admit that the ship's readings impart a warming bias.

We'll ignore the warming bias and correct for a "cooling bias" in the buoys.

Sounds more like they don't want to junk the ships' temperatures. But is it the way science should be done?


Quote:
Nothing to worry about with the land based dataset.


In the report being criticised the finding was that land based data didn't contribute much ?
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Dnarever
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #13 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 8:01pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:35pm:
Dnarever wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:26pm:
Quote:
NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted


The story comes from a climate denier organisation, it smells like fake news it looks like fake news and many of the statements made are known to be incorrect.

Fake News story.



So we'll ignore the good Doctor, now ex-NOAA, and focus on the medium not the message. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Please define the "many statements known to be incorrect"

They have not refuted the use of the unverified and unstable models, which are central to the argument.

The models haven't been QA/QC cleared, indeed they haven't claimed that; merely skirted the issue. So it not merely an administrative thing, as they they are trying to claim.

Would you fly in a plane built based on a model that hadn't passed QA/QC?

Conspiracy theorist much. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Quote:
Please define the "many statements known to be incorrect"


You could check some of the links provided by others.

Quote:
Conspiracy theorist much. :


Yes that is exactly what the story is.

It is convenient that nobody has mentioned that the report has been verified several times since it was published.

Quote:
So we'll ignore the good Doctor, now ex-NOAA, and focus on the medium not the message.


Not really the message produced has been shown to be faulty but when the medium is suspect to start with it rather tells the story anyway.
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lee
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Re: NOAA and Tom Karl's "Pausebuster" Paper Busted
Reply #14 - Feb 11th, 2017 at 8:43pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 11th, 2017 at 7:35pm:
They have not refuted the use of the unverified and unstable models, which are central to the argument.

The models haven't been QA/QC cleared, indeed they haven't claimed that; merely skirted the issue. So it not merely an administrative thing, as they they are trying to claim.



I notice you didn't address the central issue.

I have already quoted Snopes; here is factcheck

"Several studies have noted that “ship data are systematically warmer than the buoy data” and that buoy data are “more accurate,” the researchers write. Since buoys have increased in use over time and ships have decreased in use, there is a “time-dependent bias” in the global ocean temperature record, they explained."

It begs the question why adjust the buoy data for a "cooling bias"?

Again, they don't query that the models used were not verified.

Again, the London School of Economics makes no claim about the models used. It does however write about an astrophysicist not being a climate scientist. Bob Ward is not a climate scientist either but feels he can comment on climate science.

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