Australian Politics Forum - Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability

lee

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Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:25pm

'The recent trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent — seemingly at odds with climate model projections — can largely be explained by a natural climate fluctuation, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The study offers evidence that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, has created favorable conditions for additional Antarctic sea ice growth since 2000.

The findings, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, may resolve a longstanding mystery: Why is Antarctic sea ice expanding when climate change is causing the world to warm?'

'To test if these IPO-related impacts were sufficient to cause the growth in sea ice extent observed between 2000 and 2014, the scientists first examined 262 climate simulations created by different modeling groups from around the world.

When all of those simulations are averaged, the natural variability cancels itself out. For example, simulations with a positive IPO offset those with a negative IPO. What remains is the expected impact of human-caused climate change: a decline in Antarctic sea ice extent.

But for this study, the scientists were not interested in the average. Instead, they wanted to find individual members that correctly characterized the natural variability between 2000-2014, including the negative phase of the IPO. The team discovered 10 simulations that met the criteria, and all of them showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice extent across all seasons.'

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/121622/expanding-antarctic-sea-ice-linked-natura...

Not melting ice? Oh, NO.

10 out of 262 models? More Oh, NO's.

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Squire

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #1 - Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:37pm

lee wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:25pm:

'The recent trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent — seemingly at odds with climate model projections — can largely be explained by a natural climate fluctuation, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The study offers evidence that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, has created favorable conditions for additional Antarctic sea ice growth since 2000.

The findings, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, may resolve a longstanding mystery: Why is Antarctic sea ice expanding when climate change is causing the world to warm?'

'To test if these IPO-related impacts were sufficient to cause the growth in sea ice extent observed between 2000 and 2014, the scientists first examined 262 climate simulations created by different modeling groups from around the world.

When all of those simulations are averaged, the natural variability cancels itself out. For example, simulations with a positive IPO offset those with a negative IPO. What remains is the expected impact of human-caused climate change: a decline in Antarctic sea ice extent.

But for this study, the scientists were not interested in the average. Instead, they wanted to find individual members that correctly characterized the natural variability between 2000-2014, including the negative phase of the IPO. The team discovered 10 simulations that met the criteria, and all of them showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice extent across all seasons.'

ucar.edu/atmosnews/121622/expanding-antarctic-sea-ice-linked-natural-variability

Not melting ice? Oh, NO.

10 out of 262 models? More Oh, NO's.

Was that 87 studies that showed that?

s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/cd/be/9f/cdbe9ff2600376b69a7c30be5fc15025.jpg

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21592 Gender:	Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability Reply #2 - Jul 5^th, 2016 at 8:27pm Squire wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:37pm: Was that 87 studies that showed that? Do you suffer from cognitive dissonance? What has this study to do with some 87 studies? I am not a mind reader.
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The_Barnacle

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #3 - Jul 5^th, 2016 at 10:14pm

Quote:

'The recent trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent — seemingly at odds with climate model projections — can largely be explained by a natural climate fluctuation, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

I have no issue with this study.

lee wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:25pm:

Not melting ice? Oh, NO.

10 out of 262 models? More Oh, NO's.

Lee's reaction would suggest that he doesn't understand it

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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 122301 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability Reply #4 - Jul 5^th, 2016 at 11:28pm Interesting post Lee. Keep up the good work.
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Squire

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #5 - Jul 5^th, 2016 at 11:50pm

lee wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 8:27pm:

Squire wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:37pm:

Was that 87 studies that showed that?

Do you suffer from cognitive dissonance?

What has this study to do with some 87 studies? I am not a mind reader.

Thank goodness you are not a mind reader because you would leave the minds you read in disarray as well.

The UK Ministry of Funny Walks issued a study which contradicts all your arguments.

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability Reply #6 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 12:44am Bobby. wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 11:28pm: Interesting post Lee. Keep up the good work.
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lee

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #7 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 12:24pm

Squire wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 11:50pm:

Thank goodness you are not a mind reader because you would leave the minds you read in disarray as well.

The UK Ministry of Funny Walks issued a study which contradicts all your arguments.

I am glad that the Ministry of Funny Walks disagrees, that would make me probably right.

I see you are new here. I hope you get over your "newness" and come a member who can debate an issue rather than like some of the others on this forum.

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lee

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #8 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 12:25pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 10:14pm:

Quote:

'The recent trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent — seemingly at odds with climate model projections — can largely be explained by a natural climate fluctuation, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

I have no issue with this study.

lee wrote on Jul 5^th, 2016 at 7:25pm:

Not melting ice? Oh, NO.

10 out of 262 models? More Oh, NO's.

Lee's reaction would suggest that he doesn't understand it

The Barnacles reaction suggests he hasn't read it.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #9 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 12:47pm

.....lee is in big trouble now folks, up against the ropes after Barnacle's relentless blows of logic which have exposed lee's pathetic flat earth defense and hatred of the world's future generations of children.

I would say "Well done The_Barnacle" but on this occasion your opponent is lee so there really wasn't much of an even and genuine contest.

Nevertheless The_Barnacle certainly "stuck" it up lee big time didn't he ladies and gentlemen.

Only an written apology and self ban can save lee from his deranged sense of putrid moral insanity and innate soul contamination.

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lee

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #10 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 1:46pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Jul 6^th, 2016 at 12:47pm:

.....lee is in big trouble now folks, up against the ropes after Barnacle's relentless blows of logic which have exposed lee's pathetic flat earth defense and hatred of the world's future generations of children.

I would say "Well done The_Barnacle" but on this occasion your opponent is lee so there really wasn't much of an even and genuine contest.

Nevertheless The_Barnacle certainly "stuck" it up lee big time didn't he ladies and gentlemen.

Only an written apology and self ban can save lee from his deranged sense of putrid moral insanity and innate soul contamination.

Delusions of adequacy, again?

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miketrees Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6492 Gender:	Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability Reply #11 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 3:22pm May I have the readers digest version please? Is there more sea ice in the Antarctic, if so why so? Is it a change in ocean currents?
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lee

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #12 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 3:46pm

miketrees wrote on Jul 6^th, 2016 at 3:22pm:

May I have the readers digest version please?

Is there more sea ice in the Antarctic, if so why so?

Is it a change in ocean currents?

There is more sea ice in the Antarctic.

The reasons are really unknown. Earlier suggestions was that it was meltwater from Antarctica, however later studies suggested Antarctica was gaining ice mass. Now in this latest study it is just natural variation.

'The study offers evidence that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, has created favorable conditions for additional Antarctic sea ice growth since 2000.'

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/121622/expanding-antarctic-sea-ice-linked-natura...

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #13 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 6:14pm

lee wrote on Jul 6^th, 2016 at 1:46pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Jul 6^th, 2016 at 12:47pm:

.....lee is in big trouble now folks, up against the ropes after Barnacle's relentless blows of logic which have exposed lee's pathetic flat earth defense and hatred of the world's future generations of children.

I would say "Well done The_Barnacle" but on this occasion your opponent is lee so there really wasn't much of an even and genuine contest.

Nevertheless The_Barnacle certainly "stuck" it up lee big time didn't he ladies and gentlemen.

Only an written apology and self ban can save lee from his deranged sense of putrid moral insanity and innate soul contamination.

Delusions of adequacy, again?

that is very pathetic and yet predictable way to get yourself off the ropes and mount some sort of credible defense for the deceptive speeches you have delivered in her lee

apologise

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Antarctic - Expanding Sea Ice- Natural Variability
Reply #14 - Jul 6^th, 2016 at 6:19pm

lee wrote on Jul 6^th, 2016 at 3:46pm:

miketrees wrote on Jul 6^th, 2016 at 3:22pm:

May I have the readers digest version please?

Is there more sea ice in the Antarctic, if so why so?

Is it a change in ocean currents?

There is more sea ice in the Antarctic.

The reasons are really unknown.....

...a possible explanation

Why has the sea ice cover surrounding Antarctica been increasing slightly, in sharp contrast to the drastic loss of sea ice occurring in the Arctic Ocean? A new NASA-led study finds the geology of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are responsible.

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/study-helps-explain-sea-ice-differences-at-earth...

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