Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send Topic Print
Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11 (Read 484 times)
____
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 33410
Australia
Gender: male
Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11
May 19th, 2016 at 6:41am
 
BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

Labor pokes its nose ahead on two-party preferred in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but a stronger showing in Queensland finds the Coalition keeping its head above water on the seat projection.

The flurry of national polling conducted after the budget for release at the onset of the official campaign has been followed this week by a lull in new results at national level, but with Galaxy and ReachTEL making sizeable entries in state-level federal polling from Queensland and Tasmania respectively. The only national results were the regularly weekly Essential Research and the first campaign poll from Roy Morgan, the latter of which was strong enough for Labor that they have moved back into the two-party lead by the barest possible margin. However, the strong showing for the Coalition in the Galaxy Queensland poll causes them to register 1.2% higher this week in that acutely sensitive state, translating into two extra seats to partly cancel out losses of one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Essential Research has provided new numbers for leadership ratings this week, and these seem to suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s slump is levelling off.

Some of you will no doubt be looking askance at that swing currently projected in Western Australia, and I don’t blame you. There are seven data points in the model from the past three weeks with a combined sample of 1048, which individually have the Coalition’s primary vote in the state ranging from 35% to 44%, compared with 51.2% at the 2013 election. However, I suspect that if you look back in a week or two, you will find the projection moderating somewhat. It’s also worth observing that the model is now crediting Palmer United with all of 0.1% of the national vote. The only pollsters who are still tracking the party are Ipsos and Morgan, with both ReachTEL and Essential having swapped them in their questionnaire for the Nick Xenophon Team. The last five data points for Palmer United are all 0%, and the previous ten were evenly divided between 0% and 1%.

http://bit.ly/1W2ZT5G
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
juliar
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 22966
Re: Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11
Reply #1 - May 19th, 2016 at 8:14am
 
The old Greens_Lose is like a drowning man desperately trying to save himself by grasping at Greenie blobs floating by.

Inane insane Greenies sitting on their toadstools are a recipe for disaster - just look at Tasmania and Sth Australia.

And now the braindead Greenies are saying increase the illegals inflow into Australia when they just go onto permanent Welfare for life.

But then the Greenies Dumb Doc Dick is just a useless puppet for the United Nations pushing the United Nations Agenda 21 which says, "There shall be free movement of people from country to country".

And look at what this abject Greenies' stupidity has done for Europe !!!  Paris BOOOM!!!!   Brussels  BOOOOMM!!!!

Whatever you do DO NO VOTE for THE MALIGNANT CANCER of our SOCIETY the sick in the head GREENIES who want to turn our kiddies into queers!!!!




And do you want this creepy type turning Australia into the joke of the World ?

...


Now learn what Dumb Doc Dick's real Agenda 21 "policies" are:-

Population redistribution according to resources (social engineering is taking place now through the flooding of immigrants from third world countries into the western world under the guise of refugee status and diversity)
Equitable distribution of resources by government control of land use (taking place under the aegis of many bureaus such as EPA, Bureau of Land Management, Wildlife and Fisheries, Park Service)
Zoning and planning controlling land use
Public land ownership controlling urban and rural land
Population control (massive abortions via government funded clinics that sell the aborted baby body parts and dwindling births in the developed world)
Government "Regionalist authorities" hold developing rights
Mega-cities with mixed-use, high rise, stack-and-pack miniature apartments with no parking but five-minute walk from work, school, shopping, and entertainment
Mass transit and removing people from their cars by making expensive toll roads, narrower roads, taking road out of commission and making them into pedestrian zones only
Redraw neighborhoods to make them more diverse as dictated by HUD and insert illegal immigrants into middle class neighborhoods
Shaming people into owning land by calling it social injustice; Seattle is drafting rules that will ban single-family zoning; Seattle Mayor Ed Murray said, "We can still be a city for everyone, but only if we give up our outdated ideal of every family living in their own home on a 5,000 square foot lot"
Plans to manipulate human populations in rural areas


The one world governance will control and dictate:

Energy production, delivery, distribution, and consumption via Smart Grid, Smart Meters, and Renewables (wind and solar)
Food growth and production via FDA regulations
Education via a curriculum centered on Mother Earth, global communism, and global citizenship (Common Core, International Baccalaureate)
Water through irrigation denial to save a tiny fish, forced reduction in home use, recreation activities, destruction of dams and reservoirs
Population control to "manageable levels" through sterilization, eugenics (who decides and how?)
No borders, no sovereignty
No national language and culture, a multi-cultural hodge-podge
No Christian faith
Longer distance travel through light rail use for the masses while elite continue to fly and lecture the rest of us about limiting our carbon foot-print
Mobility restrictions
Homestead in high rise apartments in order to designate formerly private land wildlife habitat


Christina Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, delivered a speech to the World Affairs Council of Northern California, touting that the "world has reinvented itself" and in order to be prosperous and efficient, we must live in Mega cities.

She said, "In order to address climate change is to build a complex framework the purpose of which is to facilitate and accelerate the actions at all different levels of government."

Business Insider wrote about the plan floating at Davos 2015 to spend $90 trillion to redesign all cities so that people no longer need cars. Coffin-sized living quarters will be stacked by the millions in these Mega cities while the residents attempt to grow food on roofs and terraces and capture rain for all their daily needs. Figueres said, "you will enjoy unlimited interaction and global cooperation," while buildings will capture as much water needed."


Now read the rest in the LINK:- http://freedomoutpost.com/the-terrifying-tentacles-of-one-world-governance/
Back to top
« Last Edit: May 19th, 2016 at 8:37am by juliar »  
 
IP Logged
 
bogarde73
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Anti-Global & Contra Mundum

Posts: 18443
Gender: male
Re: Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11
Reply #2 - May 19th, 2016 at 8:24am
 
What I found in following the US primary elections, where there are multiple polls, is that these aggregation or averaging polls are worthless.
Better off to follow the ones with a track record, which is easy in the US with 50 elections but not so easy here.
Back to top
 

Know the enemies of a civil society by their public behaviour, by their fraudulent claim to be liberal-progressive, by their propensity to lie and, above all, by their attachment to authoritarianism.
 
IP Logged
 
cods
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 88048
Re: Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11
Reply #3 - May 19th, 2016 at 8:30am
 
bogarde73 wrote on May 19th, 2016 at 8:24am:
What I found in following the US primary elections, where there are multiple polls, is that these aggregation or averaging polls are worthless.
Better off to follow the ones with a track record, which is easy in the US with 50 elections but not so easy here.



better the DEVIL you know eh??>>>..

well anything would be better than WALLY...urgh!
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Bam
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21905
Gender: male
Re: Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11
Reply #4 - May 19th, 2016 at 9:04am
 
bogarde73 wrote on May 19th, 2016 at 8:24am:
What I found in following the US primary elections, where there are multiple polls, is that these aggregation or averaging polls are worthless.
Better off to follow the ones with a track record, which is easy in the US with 50 elections but not so easy here.

If otherwise sound polls have a flaw in the methodology, they can be misleading. A good example of this is the 2015 Queensland state election. Most of the polls were systematically off by about 2% because they made assumptions that were incorrect regarding the flow of preferences.

Polling aggregates can take flaws in methodology into account by taking into account the known bias of the polls.

We may see a similar bias in this election. Newspoll, for example, calculates preferences by assuming that preferences will flow the same way as they did at the 2013 Federal election. This is not a sound assumption: PUP is on the decline and being replaced by NXT, we now have OPV in the Senate, and voters are more likely to preference Labor at this election than the previous election because we have had a change in government. It is likely that the 2PP swing to Labor in Newspoll is understated as a result, perhaps by 0.5% or so.
Back to top
 

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
IP Logged
 
Bam
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21905
Gender: male
Re: Latest Poll ~ Greens' Labor Coalition Result M11
Reply #5 - May 19th, 2016 at 9:39am
 
The latest Bludgertrack aggregate has posted the following changes on the seat projection:

NSW: Coalition 25, Labor 22 (-2)
Vic: Coalition 15 Labor 20 (-1)
Qld: Coalition 20 Labor 9 (-2)
WA: Coalition 7 Labor 9 (-6)
SA: Coalition 6 Labor 5 (0)
Tas: Coalition 3 Labor 1 (0)
ACT/NT: Coalition 1 Labor 3 (0)

The totals are:
Coalition 77 (-13)
Labor 69 (+14)
Others 4 (-1).

The state-by-state numbers only add up to 11. The reason is most likely the state-by-state changes taking into account redistributions whereas the totals do not.

The total of 77 is somewhat generous for the Coalition. The Coalition could lose seats in SA to NXT, and the projection is also assuming that Joyce will retain New England. On the Labor side, Labor could also lose seats in SA to NXT but this is less likely.

As for the states, the aggregate is basing swings on small samples and the results are likely to be different.
* The Coalition are likely to lose more seats in NSW than given. Joyce could lose New England to Windsor.
* Victoria looks about right; the Coalition is in trouble in Corangamite due to widespread job losses in that electorate.
* Queensland has a large haul of marginal seats and if there's a swing on that's only slightly greater than the 3.5% indicated quite a few are at risk of falling.
* Western Australia is indicating a very large swing to Labor. This is probably a bit high but not too far off. If it is a bit high the seat count may be better for the Coalition.
* South Australia is very unpredictable due to the X factor of NXT. It is unlikely that the Coalition will retain all their seats, but NXT could be the beneficiaries of any Coalition seat losses in SA, not Labor.
* The Coalition have three marginal seats in Tasmania. Polling on small sample sizes suggests they may retain them, but it is possible that the Coalition may lose a seat here.
* The only Coalition seat in the territories is Solomon in the NT. It is difficult to tell if they will hold it. Polling suggests they will hold it but it is not a sure thing.

On this polling, we're very close to hung Parliament territory.
Back to top
 

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
IP Logged
 
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send Topic Print