matty wrote on May 17
th, 2016 at 11:51pm:
That's if McGowan even wins in the first place. I have heard that a lot of people in that seat don't like how she has sided with the Greens so often. For some inexplicable reason they don't seem to like the lovely Sophie Mirabella either, so they're looking at voting Nationals. It is, after all, a conservative seat traditionally. Windsor won't beat Joyce, either.
Rather bold prediction considering the opinion polls say otherwise.
matty wrote on May 17
th, 2016 at 11:51pm:
And even if they both did win, or either, the current polling in marginal seats indicates that the Coalition is on track to hold most. So whilst it may be 50-50 or even Labor slightly ahead (give or take for margin of error) if Labor doesn't get the swings that it needs in the marginals, the Coalition will get its own majority.
Seven weeks to go in the campaign and Turnbull is still leaking support. His approval figures in the latest Essential poll are now in negative territory and still falling, while Shorten's continue their slow rise. Shorten is also closing the gap on preferred PM.
Essential Research: 51-49 to LaborCoalition 42, Labor 38, Greens 9, NXT 3.
Turnbull: Approve 40 (+1) disapprove 42 (+3).
Shorten: Approve 34 (+4) disapprove 43 (-1).
Preferred PM: Turnbull 43 (-1), Shorten 28 (+6).