Australian Politics Forum - The Hung Parliament

____

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The Hung Parliament
May 17^th, 2016 at 9:26pm

Two prominent independents say they won't do deals to form a minority government if the federal election delivers a hung parliament.

The comments from Tony Windsor and Cathy McGowan came as Malcolm Turnbull again raised fears of a Labor-Greens alliance putting at risk Australia's borders and undermining jobs through a deal on penalty rates.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/05/16/no-deals-power-say-independents

Independent Tony Windsor, who is taking on Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce in the NSW seat of New England, said he would not sign a written deal as he had done in 2010 with Julia Gillard.

"If there was another hung parliament ... I wouldn't be signing any document with any side, I would remain independent," he said.

Cathy McGowan, who is seeking re-election as an independent in the Victorian seat of Indi, said she would not enter into any agreements.

"I'm not going to sell my vote and lose my ability to vote on issues as they impact on my community," she told ABC radio.

Another independent Bob Katter, who is recontesting the Queensland seat of Kennedy, said he would put his 20-point plan to both major parties as he did in 2010.

An average of the latest polls puts Labor on 50.4 per cent of the two-party vote.

So who's left, that we haven't heard from. likely to be the mix.

Wilkie in Denison ... anyone else?

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: The Hung Parliament Reply #1 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:10pm ____ wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 9:26pm: So who's left, that we haven't heard from. likely to be the mix. Wilkie in Denison ... anyone else? It's too early to be asking this. How many House seats will Xenophon win in SA?
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Aussie

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #2 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:21pm

Bam wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 10:10pm:

____ wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 9:26pm:

So who's left, that we haven't heard from. likely to be the mix.

Wilkie in Denison ... anyone else?

It's too early to be asking this. How many House seats will Xenophon win in SA?

I agree it is early, but current indications (polls) are that a hung Parliament is not unlikely.

Xenophon makes that more likely.

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____

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #3 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:30pm

THE first week of the campaign and, surprisingly, South Australia was the focus.

The reason was a combination of four winnable Coalition-held seats and the Xenophon phenomenon, especially the question of where his Nick Xenophon Team’s preferences will finish up.

Both Labor and Liberal are running scared of Xenophon. With the polls showing a very close race, which could result in a hung House of Representatives, so they should be.

Further, it is probable that the Senate will again be hung, and the NXT will be part of the balance of power. Unfortunately, in their attempts to deal with the NXT, the parties are resorting to arguments that mislead the voters.

For example, there have been demands that Xenophon should announce which party his team will support in the case of a hung Parliament. Why on earth should he?

more

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/dean-jaensch-labor-and-liberals-have-...

Haven't paid much attention to S.A. Are NXP in the running for lower house seats ... or is it that they can influence the outcome via preferences? .

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Aussie

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #4 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:36pm

____ wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 10:30pm:

THE first week of the campaign and, surprisingly, South Australia was the focus.

The reason was a combination of four winnable Coalition-held seats and the Xenophon phenomenon, especially the question of where his Nick Xenophon Team’s preferences will finish up.

Both Labor and Liberal are running scared of Xenophon. With the polls showing a very close race, which could result in a hung House of Representatives, so they should be.

Further, it is probable that the Senate will again be hung, and the NXT will be part of the balance of power. Unfortunately, in their attempts to deal with the NXT, the parties are resorting to arguments that mislead the voters.

For example, there have been demands that Xenophon should announce which party his team will support in the case of a hung Parliament. Why on earth should he?

more

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/dean-jaensch-labor-and-liberals-have-...

Haven't paid much attention to S.A. Are NXP in the running for lower house seats ... or is it that they can influence the outcome via preferences? .

You forgot to check with Greens Central before you posted that bewdie!

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____

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #5 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:39pm

Aussie wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 10:36pm:

____ wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 10:30pm:

THE first week of the campaign and, surprisingly, South Australia was the focus.

The reason was a combination of four winnable Coalition-held seats and the Xenophon phenomenon, especially the question of where his Nick Xenophon Team’s preferences will finish up.

Both Labor and Liberal are running scared of Xenophon. With the polls showing a very close race, which could result in a hung House of Representatives, so they should be.

Further, it is probable that the Senate will again be hung, and the NXT will be part of the balance of power. Unfortunately, in their attempts to deal with the NXT, the parties are resorting to arguments that mislead the voters.

For example, there have been demands that Xenophon should announce which party his team will support in the case of a hung Parliament. Why on earth should he?

more

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/dean-jaensch-labor-and-liberals-have-...

Haven't paid much attention to S.A. Are NXP in the running for lower house seats ... or is it that they can influence the outcome via preferences? .

You forgot to check with Greens Central before you posted that bewdie!

What are the four?

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____

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #6 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:42pm

The senator addressed some of the key issues coming out of last night’s debate, including negative gearing, given his increased popularity which sees his party having its first tilt at a lower house seat, and eyeing off four seats in the Senate.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/14/08/03/leaders-debate-was-a-draw-xeno...

So it's just the senate?

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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 39703 Gender:	Re: The Hung Parliament Reply #7 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:42pm Turn on your TV to the ABC ...... Lateline......now.
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Bam

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #8 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:49pm

Aussie wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 10:21pm:

Bam wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 10:10pm:

____ wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 9:26pm:

So who's left, that we haven't heard from. likely to be the mix.

Wilkie in Denison ... anyone else?

It's too early to be asking this. How many House seats will Xenophon win in SA?

I agree it is early, but current indications (polls) are that a hung Parliament is not unlikely.

Xenophon makes that more likely.

I agree, though the reason why I ask about Xenophon is that we have no idea how many seats his party will win in SA. The more seats his party wins, the more likely we will get a hung Parliament. NXT are likely to pick up two or three seats, but any numbers we suggest are little more than educated guesses.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 39703 Gender:	Re: The Hung Parliament Reply #9 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:53pm On Lateline just now, Xenopohon played down his chances of anything more than a maybe in one HoR seat out of S.A.
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Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 89911 Proud Old White Australian Man Gender:	Re: The Hung Parliament Reply #10 - May 17^th, 2016 at 10:58pm One at a time:-
Back to top	“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” ― John Adams IP Logged

matty

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #11 - May 17^th, 2016 at 11:51pm

That's if McGowan even wins in the first place. I have heard that a lot of people in that seat don't like how she has sided with the Greens so often. For some inexplicable reason they don't seem to like the lovely Sophie Mirabella either, so they're looking at voting Nationals. It is, after all, a conservative seat traditionally. Windsor won't beat Joyce, either.

And even if they both did win, or either, the current polling in marginal seats indicates that the Coalition is on track to hold most. So whilst it may be 50-50 or even Labor slightly ahead (give or take for margin of error) if Labor doesn't get the swings that it needs in the marginals, the Coalition will get its own majority.

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BILL SHORTEN WILL NEVER BE PM!!!!

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Bam

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #12 - May 18^th, 2016 at 8:54am

matty wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 11:51pm:

That's if McGowan even wins in the first place. I have heard that a lot of people in that seat don't like how she has sided with the Greens so often. For some inexplicable reason they don't seem to like the lovely Sophie Mirabella either, so they're looking at voting Nationals. It is, after all, a conservative seat traditionally. Windsor won't beat Joyce, either.

Rather bold prediction considering the opinion polls say otherwise.

matty wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 11:51pm:

And even if they both did win, or either, the current polling in marginal seats indicates that the Coalition is on track to hold most. So whilst it may be 50-50 or even Labor slightly ahead (give or take for margin of error) if Labor doesn't get the swings that it needs in the marginals, the Coalition will get its own majority.

Seven weeks to go in the campaign and Turnbull is still leaking support. His approval figures in the latest Essential poll are now in negative territory and still falling, while Shorten's continue their slow rise. Shorten is also closing the gap on preferred PM.

Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor
Coalition 42, Labor 38, Greens 9, NXT 3.

Turnbull: Approve 40 (+1) disapprove 42 (+3).
Shorten: Approve 34 (+4) disapprove 43 (-1).
Preferred PM: Turnbull 43 (-1), Shorten 28 (+6).

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 89911 Proud Old White Australian Man Gender:	Re: The Hung Parliament Reply #13 - May 18^th, 2016 at 9:56am The die is cast.....................
Back to top	« Last Edit: May 18^th, 2016 at 10:01am by Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM » Screenshot__5_.png (242 KB \| 34 ) “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” ― John Adams IP Logged

Melanias purse

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Re: The Hung Parliament
Reply #14 - May 18^th, 2016 at 11:48am

matty wrote on May 17^th, 2016 at 11:51pm:

That's if McGowan even wins in the first place. I have heard that a lot of people in that seat don't like how she has sided with the Greens so often. For some inexplicable reason they don't seem to like the lovely Sophie Mirabella either, so they're looking at voting Nationals. It is, after all, a conservative seat traditionally. Windsor won't beat Joyce, either.

And even if they both did win, or either, the current polling in marginal seats indicates that the Coalition is on track to hold most. So whilst it may be 50-50 or even Labor slightly ahead (give or take for margin of error) if Labor doesn't get the swings that it needs in the marginals, the Coalition will get its own majority.

I know, Matty. Let’s just hope the lovely Sophie wins her seat and sends that awful MacGowan woman back to whatever tip she came from.

Then the lovely Sophie can take over the Liberal leadership and the grown-ups will be back in charge.

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