Australian Politics Forum - 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll

Bam

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11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
May 12^th, 2016 at 4:45pm

Newspoll has released aggregated state polling for Western Australia based on Newspolls from March to May. In this aggregate, Labor's 2PP figure is ahead of the Coalition 54 to 46. That is roughly a 12% swing since the last election. This suggests that the Coalition could lose several seats in WA.

WA has 16 seats at this election after a redistribution. With a uniform 11.3% swing, the following WA seats could fall to Labor:
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% (Luke Simpkins)
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% (Ken Wyatt)
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% (new seat, notionally Liberal)
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% (Steve Irons)
Stirling (WA) LIB 9.0% (Michael Keenan)
Pearce (WA) LIB 9.3% (Christian Porter)
Canning (WA) LIB 11.3% (Andrew Hastie)

If this polling is accurate, WA could be a state to watch on election night. Could the election be decided in WA?

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll Reply #1 - May 12^th, 2016 at 4:47pm Source
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skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: 12% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll Reply #2 - May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm Labor only need fifteen to win government. Just half of those in WA would probably give Labor government given they look like picking up seats in Qld and NSW too.
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greggerypeccary

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Re: 12% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #3 - May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm

Good news.

Unfortunately, Steve Irons won't lose Swan.

He's too well known and, the Labor candidate is a complete unknown.

Plus, Steve's a nice bloke and a bloody good local member.

I'll be keeping a close eye on those other seats, though.

It seems that QLD and WA will decided this election.

Bring it on!

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Redmond Neck Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 23055 ACT Gender:	Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll Reply #4 - May 12^th, 2016 at 4:50pm Is this a poll on FEDERAL voting intentions or STATE? Oops yes its federal great news.
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skippy.

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Re: 12% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #5 - May 12^th, 2016 at 4:51pm

greggerypeccary wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm:

Good news.

Unfortunately, Steve Irons won't lose Swan.

He's too well known and, the Labor candidate is a complete unknown.

Plus, Steve's a nice bloke and a bloody good local member.

I'll be keeping a close eye on those other seats, though.

It seems that QLD and WA will decided this election.

Bring it on!

Isn't Swan Beasleys old seat?

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greggerypeccary

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Re: 12% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #6 - May 12^th, 2016 at 4:52pm

skippy. wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:51pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm:

Good news.

Unfortunately, Steve Irons won't lose Swan.

He's too well known and, the Labor candidate is a complete unknown.

Plus, Steve's a nice bloke and a bloody good local member.

I'll be keeping a close eye on those other seats, though.

It seems that QLD and WA will decided this election.

Bring it on!

Isn't Swan Beasleys old seat?

Yep.

An absolute legend.

I miss Kim.

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Bam

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Re: 12% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #7 - May 12^th, 2016 at 5:41pm

greggerypeccary wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm:

Good news.

Unfortunately, Steve Irons won't lose Swan.

He's too well known and, the Labor candidate is a complete unknown.

Plus, Steve's a nice bloke and a bloody good local member.

If the swing is on and the voters have got out the baseball bats, it won't matter much who the local member is. The ones on small margins would all be vulnerable.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm:

I'll be keeping a close eye on those other seats, though.

If the swing is on, keep an eye on ALL the seats. An average swing of 12% means all seats are in play. Sometimes seats can fall on 20% swings. I doubt Asbestos Julie would lose her seat, but any other WA Liberal MP has to be feeling a bit nervous right now.

Tangney (WA) LIB 13.0% (Dennis Jensen, lost Liberal preselection and is recontesting as an independent)
Forrest (WA) LIB 14.0% (Nola Marino)
Curtin (WA) LIB 18.2% (Julie Bishop)

Other seats - safe conservative
Durack (WA) (3.9 v NAT) LIB 15.2% (Melissa Price)
O'Connor (WA) (0.9 v NAT) LIB 15.3% (Rick Wilson)

greggerypeccary wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm:

It seems that QLD and WA will decided this election.

Bring it on!

Yes, bring it on. And the irony is, the double dissolution and the likely large swing has killed off any chance the Liberals have of retaining all six Senate seats in WA. Even the fifth Liberal Senate seat is no longer certain. This requires a primary vote of about 38.5% (5/13) and it is possible the Liberals' primary will fall below this.

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Its time Gold Member Offline Boot libs out Posts: 25639 Gender:	Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll Reply #8 - May 12^th, 2016 at 5:46pm The best thing is the rtards still think they're going to win
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greggerypeccary

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Re: 12% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #9 - May 12^th, 2016 at 5:49pm

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 5:41pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:49pm:

Good news.

Unfortunately, Steve Irons won't lose Swan.

He's too well known and, the Labor candidate is a complete unknown.

Plus, Steve's a nice bloke and a bloody good local member.

If the swing is on and the voters have got out the baseball bats, it won't matter much who the local member is.

I hope you are right, but Steve isn't your average local member.

Although, the increasing number of students and immigrants in this area may prove beneficial to the Labor candidate.

Fingers crossed.

"I’m a multi-cultural Nigena woman born in the Kimberley and a human rights lawyer living in Wilson, WA. I want to contribute to a fairer society that provides equal opportunity for all and rewards people for ingenuity and hard work."

Tammy Solonec

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Webtoad Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 266 Gender:	Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll Reply #10 - May 12^th, 2016 at 10:03pm Good. The liberals deserve to lose after what they did to Abbott.
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Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #11 - May 12^th, 2016 at 10:32pm

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:45pm:

Newspoll has released aggregated state polling for Western Australia based on Newspolls from March to May. In this aggregate, Labor's 2PP figure is ahead of the Coalition 54 to 46. That is roughly a 12% swing since the last election. This suggests that the Coalition could lose several seats in WA.

WA has 16 seats at this election after a redistribution. With a uniform 11.3% swing, the following WA seats could fall to Labor:
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% (Luke Simpkins)
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% (Ken Wyatt)
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% (new seat, notionally Liberal)
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% (Steve Irons)
Stirling (WA) LIB 9.0% (Michael Keenan)
Pearce (WA) LIB 9.3% (Christian Porter)
Canning (WA) LIB 11.3% (Andrew Hastie)

If this polling is accurate, WA could be a state to watch on election night. Could the election be decided in WA?

You have to live here to appreciate conservatives molasses like thought processing , the debt is astronomical and triple AAA credit rating long gone , but they're super slow over this way .

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Bam

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Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #12 - May 12^th, 2016 at 10:53pm

Its time wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 10:32pm:

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:45pm:

Newspoll has released aggregated state polling for Western Australia based on Newspolls from March to May. In this aggregate, Labor's 2PP figure is ahead of the Coalition 54 to 46. That is roughly a 12% swing since the last election. This suggests that the Coalition could lose several seats in WA.

WA has 16 seats at this election after a redistribution. With a uniform 11.3% swing, the following WA seats could fall to Labor:
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% (Luke Simpkins)
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% (Ken Wyatt)
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% (new seat, notionally Liberal)
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% (Steve Irons)
Stirling (WA) LIB 9.0% (Michael Keenan)
Pearce (WA) LIB 9.3% (Christian Porter)
Canning (WA) LIB 11.3% (Andrew Hastie)

If this polling is accurate, WA could be a state to watch on election night. Could the election be decided in WA?

You have to live here to appreciate conservatives molasses like thought processing , the debt is astronomical and triple AAA credit rating long gone , but they're super slow over this way .

Barnett is very unpopular and the sporting goods stores have sold out of anything that can be used as a weapon. The voters may well be choosing to practice their swing on anything with a Liberal party swastika logo on it.

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Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #13 - May 12^th, 2016 at 10:59pm

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 10:53pm:

Its time wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 10:32pm:

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:45pm:

Newspoll has released aggregated state polling for Western Australia based on Newspolls from March to May. In this aggregate, Labor's 2PP figure is ahead of the Coalition 54 to 46. That is roughly a 12% swing since the last election. This suggests that the Coalition could lose several seats in WA.

WA has 16 seats at this election after a redistribution. With a uniform 11.3% swing, the following WA seats could fall to Labor:
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% (Luke Simpkins)
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% (Ken Wyatt)
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% (new seat, notionally Liberal)
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% (Steve Irons)
Stirling (WA) LIB 9.0% (Michael Keenan)
Pearce (WA) LIB 9.3% (Christian Porter)
Canning (WA) LIB 11.3% (Andrew Hastie)

If this polling is accurate, WA could be a state to watch on election night. Could the election be decided in WA?

You have to live here to appreciate conservatives molasses like thought processing , the debt is astronomical and triple AAA credit rating long gone , but they're super slow over this way .

Barnett is very unpopular and the sporting goods stores have sold out of anything that can be used as a weapon. The voters may well be choosing to practice their swing on anything with a Liberal party swastika logo on it.

Would be fantastic , but I think you can discount WA playing any part in a Fed Labor victory , they will club Barnett when the time comes , nothing will stop that momentum .

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Bam

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Re: 11% swing to federal Labor in WA: Newspoll
Reply #14 - May 12^th, 2016 at 11:35pm

Its time wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 10:59pm:

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 10:53pm:

Its time wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 10:32pm:

Bam wrote on May 12^th, 2016 at 4:45pm:

Newspoll has released aggregated state polling for Western Australia based on Newspolls from March to May. In this aggregate, Labor's 2PP figure is ahead of the Coalition 54 to 46. That is roughly a 12% swing since the last election. This suggests that the Coalition could lose several seats in WA.

WA has 16 seats at this election after a redistribution. With a uniform 11.3% swing, the following WA seats could fall to Labor:
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% (Luke Simpkins)
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% (Ken Wyatt)
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% (new seat, notionally Liberal)
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% (Steve Irons)
Stirling (WA) LIB 9.0% (Michael Keenan)
Pearce (WA) LIB 9.3% (Christian Porter)
Canning (WA) LIB 11.3% (Andrew Hastie)

If this polling is accurate, WA could be a state to watch on election night. Could the election be decided in WA?

You have to live here to appreciate conservatives molasses like thought processing , the debt is astronomical and triple AAA credit rating long gone , but they're super slow over this way .

Barnett is very unpopular and the sporting goods stores have sold out of anything that can be used as a weapon. The voters may well be choosing to practice their swing on anything with a Liberal party swastika logo on it.

Would be fantastic , but I think you can discount WA playing any part in a Fed Labor victory , they will club Barnett when the time comes , nothing will stop that momentum .

Labor will win seats in WA, therefore WA will play its part in Labor's seat count. I don't know how much of this swing is likely to be replicated on polling day but every WA Federal Newspoll has been showing a 7% or greater swing for over 18 months and the gap is widening: 50-50, 50-50, 48-52, 48-52, 47-53 and 46-54 (government first), compared to election result of 57.3-42.7.

I suppose we will see how it pans out on election night, but I consider it unlikely that the Coalition will hold all of their 11 seats. I'm guessing they will lose 3 or 4 of them (and not win the new seat of Burt).

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