Prime Minister Turnbull is reported to have told his party room this morning that a double dissolution election is still a 'live option'.

Well, it's an option but still a rather unlikely one.

I went through all this in full detail in a post back on December 9. You can find all the explanation, dates and historical precedents at this link.

Refer to my previous post for the detail. Here let me summarise the options and open this post for comments and questions.

The government cannot hold an normal general election for the House and half-Senate before 6 August. Any Saturday between 6 August and the end of the year could be election day, with a date most likely in September or October, but avoiding the major football final weekends. In law the House election can be held off until 14 January but that would be a ridiculous option.

The government could call a separate House election at any time in the first half of the year, but would then need to hold a separate half-Senate election in late 2016 or early 2017.

The government could call a double dissolution for the first half of the year based on the double dissolution triggers it already possesses. However, the re-setting of Senate terms caused by the double dissolution would result in another half-Senate election having to be called in the first half of 2018.

As governments hate separate half-Senate elections, a double dissolution would almost certainly result in another House election in the first half of 2018. A double dissolution would effectively deliver the new government a two rather than a three year term.

A double dissolution of parliament cannot take place in the last six months of a parliament. That means the double dissolution of both houses of parliament ahead of an election must take place on or before 11 May.

A double dissolution on 11 May, followed by the maximum campaign period permitted by law, would permit a double dissolution election to be held on 2, 9 or 16 July.

It would not be possible under electoral law to hold the double dissolution election any later than 16 July 2016.

The only advantage of a double dissolution election in early July is that Senate terms would not be backdated to 2015. The government's terms would be reduced by a few months rather than a full year. The next half-Senate election would be for the first half of 2019 rather than 2018.

There are two huge disadvantaged in holding the double dissolution in July.

First, the formal campaign would be 7-9 weeks rather that the traditional five.

Second, a July double dissolution election would mean the government having to pass a supply bill to cover the costs of government in the first months of the new financial year.

The parliament is due to sit on 10 May for the budget. Any attempt to get a double dissolution election for the first weeks of July would require the budget to be abandoned and a supply bill rushed through parliament on 10 May with the formal double dissolution taking place on 11 May. That is a very difficult timetable.

The process of a double dissolution set out in Section 57 of the Constitution is a significant constitutional event, not the means for an early election.

If used as the means for an early election, it has consequences for the term of the Parliament. The power of a double dissolution was designed as a mechanism for a newly elected government to overcome the blocking power of the Senate created by the upper house's fixed and staggered terms. That is why the provision was designed with limitations on the calling of a double dissolution election in the last year of a parliament.

Update: And as Michael Maley reminds me in comments, another problem with a July double dissolution election is that if the writs were not returned within three months of the double dissolution taking place in May, then all Senators in the Ministry would have to resign as the Constitution prevents anyone being a Minister for more than three months without also being a member of parliament.



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