Australian Politics Forum - What the media isn't telling you Climate Change

Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	What the media isn't telling you Climate Change Aug 9^th, 2015 at 1:58pm
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change Reply #1 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:21am Can you identify the paper published by the first scientist denying climate change. If you don't know you are a denier. A true skeptic will know.
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Art Vandelay

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #2 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:08am

There are very few scientists who dismiss the theory of greenhouse warming, however, within the science community there is a far more nuanced range of opinion than most people realize.

The Left media has rather successfully propagated a binary mentality on the issue.

Specifically:
1. greenhouse warming exists or it doesn't.
2. If it exists, it's dangerous, so we must act now to mitigate it.

Sure, 97% of climate scientists do accept that man is responsible for climate change but how many accept that it's dangerous?

It should be noted that the specified 2 degrees C above pre industrial temperature was actually promoted by an economist and not a scientist.

Of course the main area of conjecture among scientists is the specified (modeled) number for climate sensitivity.

There are several prominent scientists who believe that the actual value is below the range specified by IPCC. The level of uncertainty stems from the assigned magnitude and direction of feedbacks.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change Reply #3 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 2:02am MOTR wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:21am: Can you identify the paper published by the first scientist denying climate change. If you don't know you are a denier. A true skeptic will know. I've never heard such a put-down but it's a good one!
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #4 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 2:06am

Art Vandelay wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:08am:

There are very few scientists who dismiss the theory of greenhouse warming, however, within the science community there is a far more nuanced range of opinion than most people realize.

The Left media has rather successfully propagated a binary mentality on the issue.

Specifically:
1. greenhouse warming exists or it doesn't.
2. If it exists, it's dangerous, so we must act now to mitigate it.

Sure, 97% of climate scientists do accept that man is responsible for climate change but how many accept that it's dangerous?

It should be noted that the specified 2 degrees C above pre industrial temperature was actually promoted by an economist and not a scientist.

Of course the main area of conjecture among scientists is the specified (modeled) number for climate sensitivity.

There are several prominent scientists who believe that the actual value is below the range specified by IPCC. The level of uncertainty stems from the assigned magnitude and direction of feedbacks.

Unquantified argument: very,... ahem, convincing propaganda but for whom?

No one perhaps? Shocked

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #5 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:07pm

Art Vandelay wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:08am:

Of course the main area of conjecture among scientists is the specified (modeled) number for climate sensitivity.

And of course how ECS is calculated.

For instance, the climate models use a mixture of physics and parameterisation. Parameterisation is where the modellers don't know how something should be represented, and so insert a number to arrive at an answer. That number has a chance between zero and Buckley's of being correct. It is called an emergent number.

SKS and others skirt around that fact.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #6 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:33pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:07pm:

Art Vandelay wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:08am:

Of course the main area of conjecture among scientists is the specified (modeled) number for climate sensitivity.

And of course how ECS is calculated.

For instance, the climate models use a mixture of physics and parameterisation. Parameterisation is where the modellers don't know how something should be represented, and so insert a number to arrive at an answer. That number has a chance between zero and Buckley's of being correct. It is called an emergent number.

SKS and others skirt around that fact.

Actually that is not how values for parameters are arrived at.

Your lack of understanding of basic scientific and mathematical principles is astonishing to say the least.

Parameters and variables can have theoretical and/or experimental/analytical values for a pre determined set of of conditions and of course have a statistical uncertainty attached to them.

The only thing that is cherry picked out of thin air, is your delusional denialism and crack pot political rhetorical dogma

Apologise in writing for being exposed in public

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #7 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:46pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:07pm:

Art Vandelay wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:08am:

Of course the main area of conjecture among scientists is the specified (modeled) number for climate sensitivity.

And of course how ECS is calculated.

For instance, the climate models use a mixture of physics and parameterisation. Parameterisation is where the modellers don't know how something should be represented, and so insert a number to arrive at an answer. That number has a chance between zero and Buckley's of being correct. It is called an emergent number.

SKS and others skirt around that fact.

You are saying nothing should ever be experimented upon as correction of theory is not possible?

Please, tell us what your words mean because as your (ex-)main man says IDEAS LAST FOREVER Grin

** DIVORCE IS SO MESSY: OH THE LIBBOS ALL THINK CLIVE HAS NO BRAINS ALL OF A SUDDEN Grin

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21590 Gender:	Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change Reply #8 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:55pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:46pm: You are saying nothing should ever be experimented upon as correction of theory is not possible? How much has ECS changed in 30 years of climate science? How many billions of dollars have been spent on a nil result.
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lee

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #9 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:57pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:33pm:

Actually that is not how values for parameters are arrived at.

I know you will not deign to enlighten us, but it would assist.

I know you love wiki

'Parameterization in a weather or climate model within numerical weather prediction refers to the method of replacing processes that are too small-scale or complex to be physically represented in the model by a simplified process.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parametrization_%28atmospheric_modeling%29

So tell me how do they arrive at these small scale or complex numbers?

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #10 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:25pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:55pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:46pm:

You are saying nothing should ever be experimented upon as correction of theory is not possible?

How much has ECS changed in 30 years of climate science? How many billions of dollars have been spent on a nil result.

You don't answer questions because you are always too busy asking them!

Lucky parliament has a question time where answers are required Wink

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #11 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:26pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:57pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:33pm:

Actually that is not how values for parameters are arrived at.

I know you will not deign to enlighten us, but it would assist.

I know you love wiki

'Parameterization in a weather or climate model within numerical weather prediction refers to the method of replacing processes that are too small-scale or complex to be physically represented in the model by a simplified process.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parametrization_%28atmospheric_modeling%29

So tell me how do they arrive at these small scale or complex numbers?

More questions.... Roll Eyes

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #12 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:45pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:57pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 12:33pm:

Actually that is not how values for parameters are arrived at.

I know you will not deign to enlighten us, but it would assist.

I know you love wiki

'Parameterization in a weather or climate model within numerical weather prediction refers to the method of replacing processes that are too small-scale or complex to be physically represented in the model by a simplified process.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parametrization_%28atmospheric_modeling%29

So tell me how do they arrive at these small scale or complex numbers?

It's Amazing isnt it?

These lottery parameter values you worship can't seem to generate one single climate model that predicts declining or even static global temperatures as CO2 levels rise.

Where is your climate model that supports your coal based mental derangement?

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lee

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #13 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:15pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:45pm:

These lottery parameter values you worship can't seem to generate one single climate model that predicts declining or even static global temperatures as CO2 levels rise.

Design parameters do what the modeller wants,

'The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. '

http://ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

So where do they depart reality? Oh that's right - they are tuned to roughly approximate the past, and then extrapolated forward.

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: What the media isn't telling you Climate Change
Reply #14 - Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:46pm

lee wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 4:15pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Aug 13^th, 2015 at 1:45pm:

These lottery parameter values you worship can't seem to generate one single climate model that predicts declining or even static global temperatures as CO2 levels rise.

Design parameters do what the modeller wants,

'The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. '

http://ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

So where do they depart reality? Oh that's right - they are tuned to roughly approximate the past, and then extrapolated forward.

...lee is giving quotes from his sources out of context then trying to extend his own rationale from said out of context quotes.

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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